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THE MAC'S RED ALERTS GO 7-3 LAST 10 PLAYS & HE CRUSHES ANOTHER NCAAB HUSH MONEY PLAY (FEB 09) - NORTHWESTERN +10.5 - IT'S JUST WHAT WE DO! - COLLEGE BASKETBALL PICKS ARE STUCK IN A BLAZING INFERNO! Winning another CBB Hush Money Play on Northwestern +10.5 & Red Alert Picks going 7-3, this is just what Roland "The Roarin MAC" McGuillaman does. Team R.A.W. has been delivering as promised, our action in College Hoops is cooking with gas, hitting over 71% on Top Rated Picks and imposing our will with unstoppable NCAAB HUSH MONEY PLAYS that are continuously breaking in house records this season. The MAC places high roller bets with the composure of a 4 star General, losing isn't a option this Sunday!
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Sports Betting Newsletter - College Basketball, NBA Picks & NHL Plays TONIGHT!submitted by TheMACSPicks to SportsReport [link] [comments]
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TONIGHT - NCAAB HUSH MONEY PLAY (FEB 12) - (HOUSTON BAPTIST +15.5 vs ABILENE CHRISTIAN -15.5) - IT'S JUST WHAT WE DO! - COLLEGE BASKETBALL PICKS ARE STUCK IN A BLAZING INFERNO!Special Release Picks go 2-1, Winning another NCAAB Major Move Alert on NC STATE +5.5 & MAC'S Premium Red Alert Picks making ripples on Patreon, this is just what Roland "The Roarin MAC" McGuillaman does. Team R.A.W. has been delivering as promised, our top rated action in College Hoops is cooking with gas, hitting over 71% with Top Rated & Special Release Picks, imposing our will this 2020 NCAAB Season with unstoppable NCAAB HUSH MONEY PLAYS that are continuously breaking in house records this season. The MAC places high roller bets with the composure of a 4 star General, losing isn't a option this Wednesday!
Top Rated NBA Releases have been exceeding expectations, and after last night's NCAAB MAJOR MOVE PLAY (FEB 11) - NC STATE +5.5 "WE ARE PLAYING WITH HOUSE MONEY" and guess what? IT'S YOUR OWN FAULT IF YOU DIDN'T RIDE WITH THE MAC! The Bankroll Players Access exhibits why Roland "The Roarin MAC" McGuillaman's reputation as THE PAYMASTER is galvanized in the gambling underworld as a dangerous low key sharp! He doesn't know where you been, but The MACS been dicking down the sports betting game since the Star Dust was the place to get a high end hooker and a cocktail! THE MAC'S TOP RATED RELEASE COLLEGE BASKETBALL HUSH MONEY PLAYS ARE UNSTOPPABLE THIS YEAR!! - TONIGHT'S SPECIAL RELEASE NCAAB MAJOR MOVE ALERT PLAY (FEB 12) - (VMI +8.5 vs CHATTANOOGA -8.5) - Roland's been playing and fading these teams for years, knowing when to lay or take points with teams like the Broncos, Cowboys, Gaels, River Hawks, & Governors has aggrandized THE MAC's reputation for his college hoops Hush Money Plays. This will be another game out of the public eye that will produce the quiet profits we expect. We pride our action by bringing the results that keep the people recommending THE MAC'S ATS COLLEGE BASKETBALL PICKS, making him one of the most venerable sources for expert college basketball predictions against the spread, and lionizing RedAlertWagers.com in and around sportsbooks and casinos!
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- I've tweaked the rate at which fighters can move up/down the ratings, to 11.5^2, this is slightly lower than previous ratings and while it still would have predicted incorrectly most of the time in that last card, it would have predicted better than it did at 12.25^2.
- I've removed bad data from the database collection. There were two issues here; The first was that the data had a lot of exhibition and non MMA fights included, so I pruned them (there were about ~5,000 entries like this). The second was that I made a programming mistake in my updating of the data, basically meaning if an underdog (based on card position) were to win a fight at any point after my very first data gathering efforts, they'd get marked as a loss. This didn't matter for my first set of predictions, but definitely mattered for the second set.
- Ive excluded DQ wins/losses from the ratings. Since none of these systems have a concept of DQ and will use it to rate the winner above the loser, it's adding inaccuracy. Hamill getting a massive rating boost because he got the DQ by face strikes to Jon Jones elbow? Not a good idea.
- I've implemented two other rating systems alongside Whole-History. They are Elo and TrueSkill, both much simpler than Whole-History and with more flaws in their method, but the data could be useful to compare to Whole-History.
In an Elo system, all players start with the same rating. When a game is played, the odds of one winning are calculated using their ratings and compared to the result. A number of points are then taken from the loser and allocated to the winner based on this and another variable called the K factor.Issues with Elo:
The K factor determines what the maximum number of points that can be transferred is.
- Ratings always improve with a win, no matter the opponent, this means you could gradually crush cans all the way to the #1 position without ever facing any decent competition.
- Players take a long time to settle into their final ranking, since they all start in the same position and are limited by the K factor, it can take multiple games to place them accurately. In MMA, people don't compete much so they would be unlikely to settle until near the end of their career.
In a TrueSkill system, it functions very much like the Elo system, but with a notable improvement. In TrueSkill, there is also a variable to measure certainty. This means instead of continually having your rating jump up and down after each game, the rating gradually becomes more consistent as the system becomes more sure of what the rating should be.
There are a few variables that you give to TrueSkill, the
Mean (starting rating),
Standard Deviation (rating variation),
Beta (distance to guarantee 76% chance of winning) and a
Dynamic Factor (to prevent certainty ending up at 0).
- The leveling out of the ratings is not what you would want in MMA, since careers rise and fall. When you run this on MMA data, you find a lot of people who have fallen quite dramatically still ranked highly because the system becomes more certain on their rating and takes longer to drop them lower.
In Whole-History, the aim is to fix one of the primary issues with Elo, which is that ratings only move forwards.Issues with Whole-History:
For an MMA example, if I were to have fought Jon Jones in his first and my first fight, and I were to win, in Elo (or TrueSkill), my rating wouldn't grow very much. This is because, when I beat him, Jones didn't have a very high rating.
As his career progressed, and we learned just how good Jon Jones is, and therefore his rating increased, it would be reasonable to assume that I am probably a bit better than the rating I got from that fight (even if still far below where Jones reaches).
Whole-History iterates over a large set of data at the same time instead of taking it one game at a time. This means I would retroactively have my score improved based on the future performance of my opposition.
- The thing that makes it good, also presents a flaw in MMA. Fighters ratings can only be improved to the level of opposition they have beaten. For an example;
You're a regional fighter, you've got Top 10 P4P skills, but Dana White hates you and you spend your career crushing cans. Whole-History will place you higher than the cans, but without evidence of you being better than that, it'll still place you lower than you should be.
- This can also cause over-inflation of ratings. If you fought a few really top level opponents and managed to scrape a win or two against them to get a good rating and then drop into a lower level of competition, you can use those wins to edge yourself further up the ratings without having to fight anyone of a high level in the future. Or if you drop to the lower level just as you leave your prime, you can trick the system into thinking you're still in your prime and improving.
- Matchmaking isn't based on the systems. The idea of using a rating system is to make close matches that result in more certainty on skill level. MMA doesn't really work that way and you often see mismatches and upsets that throw more uncertainty into the system, leaving less accuracy.
- Fighters don't fight across promotions. If you're a dominant champion and keep beating whoever the best opponent is, your rating will keep increasing, since you can never face the dominant champion in another organisation, who is better is actually ambiguous (even if it's obvious to the eye test) and so you'll get a potentially inflated rating until you step up in competition.
- Fighters don't fight much. These systems were designed for Chess, where people can play many many matches in a career and so there's a large amount of data to carefully work out the ratings. Fighters may fight ~40 times in a career and their skills wont be very consistent between the first and last fights, making it even harder to make accurate ratings.
- MMA Math doesn't add up and hype exists. You can get into the top 10 in the UFC with a couple of highlight performances against cans and get into the top 5 with a win over a 'past it' former champ or contender. Darren Till for example, (as much as he's one of my favourite fighters to watch) hasn't beaten many people of note at worthwhile times. 3/4 of his first UFC opponents got released, the fourth has only lost since he fought Till, Cerrone was on a multiple fight skid when they fought and then got the win over Wonderboy before promptly losing to Woodley. He might be ranked 3 in the UFC, but none of these systems are going to rate him all that favourably until he gets a win against an in form top contender. These ratings just tell you who has the most impressive record compared to the others, not who is actually the most skilled in real life, what we're doing is trying to infer the skill based on the record.
Listed below are all the matchups along with their Whole-History rating. If the Elo or TrueSkill ratings predict a different outcome, I've marked them in italics.
I've excluded the actual Elo or TrueSkill ratings since they take ages to copy/paste and even in the cases where they disagree with the Whole-History ratings, they are extremely close in rating anyway.
Till should win this fairly comfortably according to the Whole-History ratings.
Using Elo or TrueSkill has Masvidal as the slight favourite.
Edwards should pull this win out, all three systems have Edwards winning.
As a side note, I'm trying to figure out how Edwards is rated 1000 but till only 698, all I can see so far is most of Till's former opponents have been released and turned out to not be very good, I'll keep looking.
Reyes should edge it, the data here is tricky, Reyes hasn't lost yet, so he's not levelled out yet in rating, while Oezdemir has dropped his last two and his competition before that is a bit 'thin'.
Elo and TrueSkill also predict a Reyes win.
All three ratings predict Wood as the winner.
Whole-History has Silva winning without too much difficulty.
Elo and TrueSkill predict Roberts to win.
All three ratings predict Mashman to win.
All three ratings predict Allen to win.
Duffy should win according to Whole-History.
Elo and TrueSkill predict a Diakiese win.
Whole-History and Elo both predict Negumereanu to win.
TrueSkill predicts a Safarov win.
Whole-History barely predicts Breese to edge it.
Elo and TrueSkill both predict Heinisch.
All three predict Henry to win.
Whole-History and Elo have Cachoeira winning.
TrueSkill think's Molly McCann pull of the win. (excuse my lame pun)
Whole-History and TrueSkill have Narimani winning.
Elo has Grundy edging the win.
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