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UFC Fight Night: Calvillo v Eye Fight Predictions

Hello!
I hope we're all doing well, I hope you're all healthy and happy.
I wasn't really all that motivated to do a write up for this card because frankly it looks like something UFC 3 (The video game) might produce when you randomize a custom event. There are some bangers in this card but ultimately it's mildly okay. If there are new people reading this than please read what's next to my name, I get shit wrong sometimes so please don't bet on my predictions unless you're feeling up for the possibility of some disappointment.
Again, there will be no gifs in this write-up. I am still looking for another source to upload gifs to so please give me time.
(c) - Champ
(D) - Debut
NS - No Streak
FLS - Fight Lose Streak
FWS - Fight Win Streak
(#x) - Rank in Division
Lets do this.
Prelims
Welterweight
Anthony Ivy (D) (#1 Texas) (8-2-0, 5 FWS) v Christian Aguilera (D) (#2 US West) (13-6-0, 2 FWS) - An interesting fight to start off this event. Ivy was scheduled to fight Meerschaert last week, but ultimately didn’t because there was a false positive covid test. Ivy is a tall, lengthy striker who was Fury FC and WXC Welterweight Champion, From what I could see from the limited footage available, Ivy is a patient striker, waiting for the perfect time to land a clean punch or kick, and his wrestling is decent, capable of landing multiple clean takedowns within a round. Ivy is at a very clear advantage on the feet, as he is 5 inches taller and has a 3 inch reach advantage, so I feel like Ivy will try to keep the fight on the feet and just throw jabs, maybe blitz to cover distance. Either way, he’s a very exciting debuting fighter and frankly I can’t wait. Aguilera seems to be a rushed pick this time around because I believe they may have made this match up on a whim so Ivy can fight, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t a great fighter, he is absolutely a brawl-like striker, he gets in your face and he throws down. He’s almost always the aggressor and doesn’t necessarily fight at a distance, which could be advantageous in this fight if he can get through the range deficiency. 9 of his 10 KO finishes have been in the first round, so he obviously starts off very strong, which is why it’s imperative for Ivy to take his time, avoid the aggression, and just jab to find his timing. Patience is key in this case for Ivy, we might see him on the back pedal, sure, but he’s going to most likely outstrike him later on in the fight. I got Ivy winning this one.
Ivy via KO R2
Featherweight
Jordan Griffin (18-7-0, NS) v Darrick Minner (24-11-0, NS) - Griffin is a very good grappler, with 9 submission victories, he does seem to struggle against wrestlers who transition a whole lot, this much was obvious during his last fight against TJ Brown. Now, whilst Griffin did win against Brown, with a relatively unusual angle on the guillotine, which just marks his capabilities on the ground. His stand up however has some noticeable flaws, namely his head movement, it’s not really there, he puts out offense and some of his strikes land but he’s not exactly a knockout artist. Minner has been fighting for quite some time now, and with a grand total of 35 fights, it’s hard to deny that he has a huge amount of experience, and in those 24 wins, 21 was by submission, so it’s clear that Minner is very comfortable on the ground. Now, typically if you have a grappler fight a grappler, you end up getting some sort of striking bout, and if that’s the case with this fight, then I feel like Griffin might get the better shots in. Minner would no doubt be excellent on the ground and perhaps get better positions for submissions, but on the feet it’s call Griffin, and if my hunch is right (and it is indeed a hunch) then the fight might end up being a kickboxing match and Griffin will end up getting far cleaner shots in. So, i’m pulling for Griffin on this one.
Griffin via UD
Flyweight
Zarrukh Adashev (D) (3-1-0, 3 FWS) v Tyson Nam (18-11-1, 2 FLS) - This is a fight that was originally meant to be Ryan Benoit v Nam, but because there are zero international flights going on these days, the UFC is seemingly running out of talent so they’re pulling in rather inexperienced fighters to fill the gaps. Adashev is currently 4 fights deep into his MMA career and he had a pretty decent start with his career, starting out in Bellator is a pretty prestigious start and whilst I can’t talk a whole lot about his skillset, I can only assume he hasn’t had a full camp and isn’t super prepared, he’s going to go in and most likely feel out the process and trust instinct and his corner, so he’s at a tiny bit of a disadvantage in terms of experience and preparedness because Nam has 30 fights, 6 times the wins of Adashev and whilst Nam hasn’t had a great run in the UFC, he has the tools to take on Adashev, the only issue here is age and physical advantages, Nam is shorter and has less length than Adashev, and is 9 years younger, so the future looks bright for Adashev, but I’m leaning on Nam.
Nam via KO R2
Women’s Bantamweight
Julia Avila (7-1-0, 3 FWS) v Gina Mazany (6-3-0, NS) - The spotlight is obviously on Avila this fight. Avila only has one fight in the UFC and it was against TUF contender Pannie Kianzad, and whilst she did manage to land some clean shots, there really wasn’t a lot to see or learn about her, she is seemingly your average fighter, decent wrestling, decent striking. Mazany had her last UFC win two and a half years ago, and since then I doubt anyone has really been keeping track of her. I for one forgot that she wasn’t in the UFC until recently. Her last win against Wu was pretty dominating, 5 takedowns throughout the fight, and landing more strikes than her. Really there isn’t anything significant about either of these fighters, Hopefully their performances this weekend give us something exciting to look forward to next time they fight.
Avila via UD
Lightweight
Charles Rosa (12-4-0, NS) v Kevin Aguilar (17-3-0, 2 FLS) - Now, despite my last, horrible choice of picking Rosa over Mitchell, i’m still thinking that Rosa is a phenomenal grappler, only that he was facing a far better grappler. Now, there’s going to be a slight reason why i’ll lean on Rosa over Aguilar on this one, and that’s simply because he’s hungry for redemption. He needs a win, otherwise why else would he accept another fight so soon? Aguilar started off his career with 6 knockouts in a row, sometimes fighting twice on the same day, so his start was tremendous, but unfortunately since he joined the UFC, we haven’t seen what he could do with his hands at his full potential. Sure, we’ve seen him fight through some back and forths but ultimately there really hasn’t been a wow factor. He has a very good kickboxing skillset, with a whole lot of movement and a very wide stance, which might be an issue if there was to be a takedown since the lead leg is fairly out there. I can’t talk a lot about his ground game because frankly we haven’t seen him on the ground a lot, but I still have a feeling that Rosa will be a dominant grappler in this case. I’m leaning on Rosa for this bout.
Rosa via Sub R2
Women’s Flyweight
Mariya Agapova (D) (8-1-0, 2 FWS) v Hannah Cifers (10-5-0, 2 FLS) - This is another fight where I cannot say a whole lot about either fighter. Agapova was scheduled to fight Melissa Gatto, but due to visa issues Cifers has come in as a replacement. Agapova is at a huge advantage in terms of height and reach, with a 5 inch height advantage and an 8 inch reach advantage, she’s probably going to have an easier time on the feet (which is most likely where the fight will stay). She was previously a fairly dominant fighter in Invicta, with multiple finishes and still at a very young age, she could turn out to be a pretty good prospect. Cifers is in a seemingly rough spot right now, she lost very recently due to a kneebar, she doesn’t seem to do very good on the ground (which also makes me think Agapova will grapple and ground and pound her until a TKO), and whilst she’s very physically strong, her striking seems pretty good. But considering that she’s at a reach disadvantage she’s going to get hit with jabs a whole lot, unless she can get into the pocket and fire off a few shots, then reset, I don’t see her getting the win this time around.
Agapova via KO R2
Main Card
Bantamweight
Jordan Espinosa (14-7-0, 2 FLS) v Mark De La Rosa (11-4-0, 3 FLS) - I suppose this is a fight for redemption and to get a win. Espinosa is currently 1-2 in the UFC and his recent performances haven’t been his best, losing twice to a submission would result in the fighter getting some work done on the ground during camp so let’s assume that Espinosa has worked on his ground game, that somewhat covers most of the threat that De La Rosa can give on the ground, and considering De La Rosa is okay and fairly well rounded, we can’t really expect him to be a threat on the ground. Time after time De La Rosa has somewhat disappointed me with his performances, his wrestling is okay, but there’s ultimately not really a lot of action, no takedowns, just hold and pray the time runs out. I have Espinosa on this one hundred percent.
Espinosa via UD
Featherweight
Andre “Touchy” Fili (20-7-0, NS) v Charles Jourdain (10-2-0, NS) - Oh look, it’s a rare sight, the unicorn of this card, a decent match up. Fili is an absolute ferocious animal in the cage, the dudes fast and each punch lands with significant damage and impact. He also has a height and reach advantage so naturally he’s going to have a lot more success on the feet, especially with his lateral movement and his quick combos, and with a team like Team Alpha Male behind him you know they’re refining the finest details in his striking game. Jourdain is coming off a significant KO over our boy Choi, and whilst he is fairly new to the UFC, the momentum he has coming off that win is quite significant. Jourdain has great striking and he’s patient, he waits for the moment his opponent swings, then lands a shot, so expect some decent counters in this fight, considering Fili is very wild with his strikes, I expect Jourdain to deflect then attack. This is a barn burner and something that will most definitely wake up all 30 people that might be watching this card. I’m leaning on Fili on this one, he’s shown us that he’s a dynamic and dangerous fighter, who sets his own pace.
Fili via KO R2
Bantamweight
Merab Dvalishvili (10-4-0, 3 FWS) v Gustavo Lopez (D) (#8 US West) (11-4-0, 3 FWS) - Now, I wasn’t incredibly keen on writing this, because originally i already wrote Borg v Dvalishvili and now that Borg is out, There isn’t a whole lot that I can say about Lopez, so I will be focusing mainly on Dvalishvili and his success in recent years. Dvalishvili is a very talented wrestler, throughout his last 3 fights he has landed over 20 takedowns, his cardio is through the roof and he just absolutely mauls people. All due respect to Lopez, i’m sure he’s a great fighter, but I don’t think he’s ready for what’s going to hit him this weekend. Dvalishvili is on another level, and whilst I could be very wrong, I do feel like Dvalishvili has this one in the bag.
Dvalishvili via UD
Co-Main Event
Middleweight
Karl Roberson (9-2-0, 2 FWS) v Marvin Vettori (14-3-1, 2 FWS) - This one has a whole lot behind it, a whole lot of hate and tension between these two. Roberson is a pretty decent, well rounded fighter who isn’t really in the spotlight, other than the conflict these two have had in recent weeks. Roberson is fairly good on the ground, I actually feel like he will initiate a couple of takedowns in order to eliminate the striking advantage that Vettori has, then grind out a win, perhaps get a submission out of it. Vettori has always been a silent one in the division, he was overshadowed by Adesanya despite being the better wrestler, and his two wins over Ferreira and Sanchez following that fight have been nothing short of dominating. He’s shown that he has the aggression and volume to push back against some dangerous fighters and he will give Roberson some difficulties on the feet. If Vettori is going to win, it’s going to be on the feet, he’s going to press the action, march forward and deal damage. Don’t forget that Roberson was sick after the weight cut, and that was only a month ago so will he be able to safely cut the weight this time? Will both agree to a catchweight fight at 190 pounds? There’s a whole lot of variables coming into this fight but regardless we’re going to see some fireworks.
Vettori via KO R2
Main Event
Flyweight
Jessica Eye (#3) (15-7-0, NS) v Cynthia Calvillo (8-1-1, NS) - So, i was conflicted about whether to call this fight a Main Event or a Featured Bout, the difference being a featured bout is the “main event” for the prelims, which this would be a perfect fight for, but unfortunately I have the great displeasure of calling this one a Main Event. Also, looking at their previous weights, Eye weighed in at 131 pounds, and Calvillo weighed in at 120.5 pounds, now, I don’t know who these girls nutritionists are, but I really wanna hire them because they are eating hella good meals. Eye is no doubt a tough and durable fighter, she outclassed Araujo in her last fight, landing very clean shots and showing that despite being sent to the afterlife by Shevchenko, she’s not giving up and she’s going to keep on performing to the best of her ability. Now, Eye doesn’t have a slick jab, a great variety of kicks, or a top notch wrestling game, but what she does have is pressure, she’s always in your face and she doesn’t really go down that easily. This could be a threat for Calvillo who doesn’t really do too well under pressure. Calvillo has one advantage over Eye that is clear from the day the fight was announced, and that’s her ground game, she’s really good at controlling her opponents on the ground, and whilst she’s fairly okay on the feet, she’s a different fighter on the ground and that will give Eye some issues. Overall, this is at the very basics, a striker v grappler match, and I feel like Calvillo will get the win here, not only is the cutting less weight, therefore she’ll have more energy and easier recovery time during post-weigh ins, she’s got the ground to rely on and I see her getting a takedown every now and then, followed by ground and pound and maybe a finish. Overall, it’s a coin toss, so please don’t bet based on this prediction.
Calvillo via Sub R3
And that's it!
I don't have a whole lot to say to conclude this post, other than we live in rough times, if you guys need someone to talk to, please, feel free to hit me up here on reddit, twitter, or discord. I am here for every single one of you.
Feel free to follow me on twitter @Slayer_Tip or add me on discord Slayertip#7013
Thank you, and i hope you guys have a wonderful weekend.
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Whole-History Rating Predictions for UFC on ESPN: Till vs Masvidal (with bonus TrueSkill and Elo comparison)

Round 3

If you saw my last set of predictions generated by the Whole-History Rating system, you'll undoubtedly know that it correctly picked the loser in almost every fight (aka, failed to predict the winners). Since that set of predictions, I've made a lot of changes, some major ones being;

- I've tweaked the rate at which fighters can move up/down the ratings, to 11.5^2, this is slightly lower than previous ratings and while it still would have predicted incorrectly most of the time in that last card, it would have predicted better than it did at 12.25^2.
- I've removed bad data from the database collection. There were two issues here; The first was that the data had a lot of exhibition and non MMA fights included, so I pruned them (there were about ~5,000 entries like this). The second was that I made a programming mistake in my updating of the data, basically meaning if an underdog (based on card position) were to win a fight at any point after my very first data gathering efforts, they'd get marked as a loss. This didn't matter for my first set of predictions, but definitely mattered for the second set.
- Ive excluded DQ wins/losses from the ratings. Since none of these systems have a concept of DQ and will use it to rate the winner above the loser, it's adding inaccuracy. Hamill getting a massive rating boost because he got the DQ by face strikes to Jon Jones elbow? Not a good idea.
- I've implemented two other rating systems alongside Whole-History. They are Elo and TrueSkill, both much simpler than Whole-History and with more flaws in their method, but the data could be useful to compare to Whole-History.

If you're interested in how these rating systems work, the best place to look is Google, since whitepapers and in depth explanations are readily available. I will try and summarise a basic concept of what is going on, for those who just want to read the predictions (If you're familiar with these rating systems, just skip this, you'll just want to poke holes in my explanation otherwise haha);

Elo

In an Elo system, all players start with the same rating. When a game is played, the odds of one winning are calculated using their ratings and compared to the result. A number of points are then taken from the loser and allocated to the winner based on this and another variable called the K factor.
The K factor determines what the maximum number of points that can be transferred is.
Issues with Elo:
- Ratings always improve with a win, no matter the opponent, this means you could gradually crush cans all the way to the #1 position without ever facing any decent competition.
- Players take a long time to settle into their final ranking, since they all start in the same position and are limited by the K factor, it can take multiple games to place them accurately. In MMA, people don't compete much so they would be unlikely to settle until near the end of their career.

TrueSkill

In a TrueSkill system, it functions very much like the Elo system, but with a notable improvement. In TrueSkill, there is also a variable to measure certainty. This means instead of continually having your rating jump up and down after each game, the rating gradually becomes more consistent as the system becomes more sure of what the rating should be.
There are a few variables that you give to TrueSkill, the
Mean (starting rating),
Standard Deviation (rating variation),
Beta (distance to guarantee 76% chance of winning) and a
Dynamic Factor (to prevent certainty ending up at 0).

Issues with TrueSkill:
- The leveling out of the ratings is not what you would want in MMA, since careers rise and fall. When you run this on MMA data, you find a lot of people who have fallen quite dramatically still ranked highly because the system becomes more certain on their rating and takes longer to drop them lower.

Whole-History

In Whole-History, the aim is to fix one of the primary issues with Elo, which is that ratings only move forwards.
For an MMA example, if I were to have fought Jon Jones in his first and my first fight, and I were to win, in Elo (or TrueSkill), my rating wouldn't grow very much. This is because, when I beat him, Jones didn't have a very high rating.
As his career progressed, and we learned just how good Jon Jones is, and therefore his rating increased, it would be reasonable to assume that I am probably a bit better than the rating I got from that fight (even if still far below where Jones reaches).
Whole-History iterates over a large set of data at the same time instead of taking it one game at a time. This means I would retroactively have my score improved based on the future performance of my opposition.
Issues with Whole-History:
- The thing that makes it good, also presents a flaw in MMA. Fighters ratings can only be improved to the level of opposition they have beaten. For an example;
You're a regional fighter, you've got Top 10 P4P skills, but Dana White hates you and you spend your career crushing cans. Whole-History will place you higher than the cans, but without evidence of you being better than that, it'll still place you lower than you should be.
- This can also cause over-inflation of ratings. If you fought a few really top level opponents and managed to scrape a win or two against them to get a good rating and then drop into a lower level of competition, you can use those wins to edge yourself further up the ratings without having to fight anyone of a high level in the future. Or if you drop to the lower level just as you leave your prime, you can trick the system into thinking you're still in your prime and improving.

Issues with all Systems:
- Matchmaking isn't based on the systems. The idea of using a rating system is to make close matches that result in more certainty on skill level. MMA doesn't really work that way and you often see mismatches and upsets that throw more uncertainty into the system, leaving less accuracy.
- Fighters don't fight across promotions. If you're a dominant champion and keep beating whoever the best opponent is, your rating will keep increasing, since you can never face the dominant champion in another organisation, who is better is actually ambiguous (even if it's obvious to the eye test) and so you'll get a potentially inflated rating until you step up in competition.
- Fighters don't fight much. These systems were designed for Chess, where people can play many many matches in a career and so there's a large amount of data to carefully work out the ratings. Fighters may fight ~40 times in a career and their skills wont be very consistent between the first and last fights, making it even harder to make accurate ratings.
- MMA Math doesn't add up and hype exists. You can get into the top 10 in the UFC with a couple of highlight performances against cans and get into the top 5 with a win over a 'past it' former champ or contender. Darren Till for example, (as much as he's one of my favourite fighters to watch) hasn't beaten many people of note at worthwhile times. 3/4 of his first UFC opponents got released, the fourth has only lost since he fought Till, Cerrone was on a multiple fight skid when they fought and then got the win over Wonderboy before promptly losing to Woodley. He might be ranked 3 in the UFC, but none of these systems are going to rate him all that favourably until he gets a win against an in form top contender. These ratings just tell you who has the most impressive record compared to the others, not who is actually the most skilled in real life, what we're doing is trying to infer the skill based on the record.

Predictions for ...

UFC on ESPN+ 5: Till vs. Masvidal

Listed below are all the matchups along with their Whole-History rating. If the Elo or TrueSkill ratings predict a different outcome, I've marked them in italics.
I've excluded the actual Elo or TrueSkill ratings since they take ages to copy/paste and even in the cases where they disagree with the Whole-History ratings, they are extremely close in rating anyway.

Darren Till (698) vs Jorge Masvidal (506)
Till should win this fairly comfortably according to the Whole-History ratings.
Using Elo or TrueSkill has Masvidal as the slight favourite.

Leon Edwards (1000) vs Gunnar Nelson (823)
Edwards should pull this win out, all three systems have Edwards winning.
As a side note, I'm trying to figure out how Edwards is rated 1000 but till only 698, all I can see so far is most of Till's former opponents have been released and turned out to not be very good, I'll keep looking.

Volkan Oezdemir (653) vs Dominick Reyes (781)
Reyes should edge it, the data here is tricky, Reyes hasn't lost yet, so he's not levelled out yet in rating, while Oezdemir has dropped his last two and his competition before that is a bit 'thin'.
Elo and TrueSkill also predict a Reyes win.

Nathaniel Wood (548) vs Jose Alberto Quinones (374)
All three ratings predict Wood as the winner.

Danny Roberts (516) vs Claudio Silva (817)
Whole-History has Silva winning without too much difficulty.
Elo and TrueSkill predict Roberts to win.

Jack Marshman (309) vs John Phillips (76)
All three ratings predict Mashman to win.

Arnold Allen (718) vs Jordan Rinaldi (395)
All three ratings predict Allen to win.

Marc Diakiese (201) vs Joe Duffy (402)
Duffy should win according to Whole-History.
Elo and TrueSkill predict a Diakiese win.

Nick Negumereanu (294) vs Saparbeg Safarov (108)
Whole-History and Elo both predict Negumereanu to win.
TrueSkill predicts a Safarov win.

Tom Breese (669) vs Ian Heinisch (659)
Whole-History barely predicts Breese to edge it.
Elo and TrueSkill both predict Heinisch.

Danny Henry (724) vs Dan Ige (590)
All three predict Henry to win.

Molly McCann (92) vs Priscila Cachoeira (190)
Whole-History and Elo have Cachoeira winning.
TrueSkill think's Molly McCann pull of the win. (excuse my lame pun)

Mike Grundy (522) vs Nad Narimani (730)
Whole-History and TrueSkill have Narimani winning.
Elo has Grundy edging the win.

Below is a table with the predicted winner for each system, Bold where it agrees with Whole-History, Italic where it does not.
I've included the calculated american version of the odds using the Whole-History ratings (I still don't understand them all that well, but I know people seem to like them). You don't need the other persons odds because this isn't betting and so if Till is -303, Masvidal is +303.
Whole-History Elo TrueSkill
Till (-303) Masvidal Masvidal
Edwards (-278) Edwards Edwards
Reyes (-208) Reyes Reyes
Wood (-272) Wood Wood
Silva (-563) Roberts Roberts
Mashman (-380) Mashman Mashman
Allen (-641) Allen Allen
Duffy (-317) Diakiese Diakiese
Negumereanu (-292) Negumereanu Safarov
Breese (-105) Heinisch Heinisch
Henry (-217) Henry Henry
Cachoeira (-176) Cachoeira McCann
Narimani (-331) Grundy Narimani

Please please remember that these are generated ratings using systems designed for chess, these are NOT my personal predictions and are posted for the purposes of research and discussion on rating systems in MMA. Telling me I'm an idiot because x fighter got rated higher than y fighter doesn't help anyone.
submitted by Kezyma to MMA [link] [comments]

UFC Uruguay Betting Analysis

I started a hobby last week of doing write ups for the UFC fights. I put $50 on an online site when my wife an I went to UFC Rochester. It makes the fights more interesting and I've enjoyed being interested in fights I wouldn't otherwise be interested in. Its probably easier to read in the blog form, theres excel tables and stuff ahah. I'll copy and paste it below too.
https://medium.com/@j.granttracy/ufc-uruguay-betting-analysis-cc48ab79fd97?sk=749f6ae338073a4730decc19849dabb7
UFC New Jersey Reflection
· Hannah Goldy…I apologize. I thought Miranda Granger was going to show up thin, she was gigantic with an 8 inch reach advantage, wasn’t even a close fight.
· “Lucky” Lauren Murphy! Happy she got the win, sad she didn’t get a $50,000 bonus, unfortunately I bet the decision.
· Nasrat Haqparast is a killer.
· My friend Jim will not longer contribute.

Polyana Viana (-160) Veronica Macedo (+135)

The UFC knows what they’re doing here, Rachael Ostovich cancels, they bring in Polyana Viana, these two girls are rockets. Polyana Viana beat the hell out of a thief attempting to rob her, everyone loves a UFC girl beating the hell out of a thief story. Viana showed excellent jiu jitsu for almost the entirety of her Maia Stevenson fight and segments of JJ Aldrich fight but Viana has a problem getting the fight to the ground. Viana has a bigger problem holding her hands low. In every fight she gets hit in the face because her hands are low. Viana tends to get fatigued, she looks real big for 115 lbs, I have a feeling she cuts too much weight. Viana had a height and reach advantage over Hannah Cifers. Cifers took advantage of Viana’s hands being low and connected with her face a lot. Viana could not manage to wrestle Cifers to the ground but she did have some success pulling guard in the 2nd round. She took this fight with Veronica Macedo short notice and it will be at 125 lbs, I am interested to see how she performs at 125 lbs. Veronica Macedo impressed me fighting Andrea Lee. Her strikes were dangerous, each punch or kick was vicious. At one point I think she threw a left head kick as if it was a flying knee, i’m not even sure what I saw but I liked it. Macedo’s jiu jitsu from the bottom was awesome. Lee had full mount and back mount a couple of times but Macedo is slippery, she twists and kicks her legs up and next thing you know she’s up. Macedo’s grappling was the reason she lost. Lee was bigger and stronger and used her strength to win grappling situations. Macedo is undersized for the 125 lbs division which is a reason why she struggles grappling. I thought Macedo’s grappling improved in her fight with Gillian Robertson, she won some grappling situations in the 1st round. Macedo was dominant when the fight was standing, but the grappling eventually cost her. It doesn’t matter how good you are at escaping back mounts and full mounts, these positions are dangerous. Unfortunately, Macedo was caught in a rear naked choke. Macedo is 23 years old and training at the MMA Lab, she will continue to make improvements with each fight.
Prediction
Macedo has a vicious striking advantage. Viana’s strength is her jiu jitsu but she struggles to take her opponents to the ground. Macedo does wear a black belt but she doesn’t want this fight on the ground. Viana has a cardio issue at 115 lbs, but it is possible fighting at 125 lbs helps her cardio. It’s also possible a short notice cut to 125 lbs is just as hard on her cardio. Macedo’s grappling has improved with every fight, if she keeps this fight on the feet she will win. I don’t think Viana has the grappling skills to force this fight to the ground. Unless Viana looks like a different fighter answering the call for a short notice 125 lbs fight Macedo wins by 2nd round knockout.
Betting
Macedo should be the favorite in this fight, she’s a +135 underdog and will be the favorite when the fight starts. I’ve seen cardio issues with Viana, I’ll take a shot with a 3rd round finish for Macedo. It looks like Macedo did end up at as the favorite, I would still take a shot on her with a smaller bet.
· Macedo wins (+135) $50 to win $67.50
·Macedo wins in 3rd round (+1800) $5 to win $90
Aleksey Kunchenko (-125) Gilbert Burns (+115)
Aleksey Kunchenko showed high level stand up in his fight with Thiago Alves. He doesn’t use kicks often but is excellent with his hands. I didn’t see Kunchenko have trouble with Alves, but Alves did have some success with leg kicks in the fight. In the Yushin Okami fight Kunchenko stopped about 10 takedown attempts while dictating octagon control. I don’t see a cardio issue with Kunchenko, this will be his first real test in the UFC octagon. When I saw Gilbert Burns fight Dan Moret I thought he was the best 155 lbs fighter to ever live. That guy cut a tremendous amount of weight for that fight and I couldn’t believe anyone could beat him at 155 lbs. Next fight, Burns is knocked out by Dan Hooker. The cerebral fluid around the brain is the last to rehydrate, guys who cut too much weight don’t have good chins. Burns cuts too much weight for 155 lbs, I think his future is at 170 lbs. Filling in on short notice for this 170 lbs fight will be a good test for him. I really like Burns as a fighter, he has power with his strikes his wrestling is good, and his jiu jitsu is sensational. This should be a good fight of contrasting styles.
Prediction
Burns is an exceptional jiu jitsu practitioner, if the fight lands on the ground Kunchenko is in danger. His striking is wild but powerful, on multiple occasions I've seen Burns throw a power punch that missed by at least a foot. Kunchenko is the higher level striker. I’ve never seen him on his back in the UFC, he stuffed 10 takedowns from Yushin Okami. It should be considered that this is a late notice fight for Burns and he didn’t have a training camp, although he competes regularly in grappling. Alright, here’s how I see this fight going, I think Kunchenko takes the center of the octagon and dictates the fight standing. Kunchenko isn’t going to be hurried, patience is a quality of high level striking. We know Kunchenko stuffed 10 takedowns in his last fight, Burns needs to get this fight to the ground or he loses a decision. Burns is an exceptional jiu jitsu practitioner but he doesn’t have elite wrestling. I could guess and make assumptions about Kunchenko, a fighter I barely know, but I’m not going to. I have seen Kunchenko stuff about 10 takedowns in his fight with Okami. I have seen Kunchenko keep distance and be a patient striker with Alves. I think those 2 facts lead me to believe Kunchenko can stay off his back and win a decision.
Betting
I have no idea what’s going to happen. I’m flirting with Kunchenko winning by decision (+165). If I felt I had more tape on Kunchenko and knew more about his jiu jitsu and takedown defense i’d make a bet. I kinda like Burns wins by submission (+450) but i’d just be guessing. Burns fighting at 170 lbs is another wild card. I’m going to pass on this one, I’m interested to see what happens.
· Pass
Alex Da Silva (-280) Rodrigo Vargas (+255)
Alex Da Silva looked solid in his UFC debut in St. Petersburg. He showed solid striking and grappled well with Alexander Yakovlev. Unfortunately, he was caught in a choke and tapped. Silva didn’t look special anywhere, but didn’t show a glaring weakness. Rodrigo Vargas fights for Combate Americas. Vargas is a southpaw fighter with cardio issues. Vargas wouldn’t be in the UFC if he wasn’t a late fill in.
Prediction
I did not study Vargas a lot but I don’t think he has UFC caliber fighting skills. Silva has the edge everywhere. Silva will win I am just wondering if Vargas’s cardio allows for a stoppage. “Fatigue makes cowards of us all” Silva wins this fight inside the distance.
Betting
I can’t bet on a fight where I watched 1 fight of 1 fighter and don’t know who the other guy is. I will pass on this fight for now. I learned my lesson trying to make a judgement on Miranda Granger off of YouTube videos last week.
·Pass
Geraldo De Freitas (-130) Chris Gutierrez (+120)
Geraldo De Freitas looked good in his UFC featherweight debut verse Felipe Colares. He’s big, his reach is long for the division, and his boxing is sharp. He mixes in some kicks but his boxing is where he's most comfortable. On the ground his jiu jitsu is excellent and his grappling isn’t a weakness. I did see De Freitas fatigue in the 2nd round and a better fighter would've taken his back and stole the round from him or choked him. Michael Bisbing was confused as to why he kept winning boxing exchanges on the feet and finishing with a takedown. This was because of his fatigue level. De Freitas’ cardio was an issue at 145 lbs. Apparently this fight is scheduled for 135 lbs. At his size, I don’t know how this guy is going to make weight and this weight cut will have an effect on his cardio. Chris Gutierrez effectively uses his kicks standing up. In the UFC he hasn’t showed good wrestling or jiu jitsu. I don’t have an issue with his cardio. The more I do these, the more I appreciate the UFC’s match making, I’m excited for this fight.
Prediction
I don’t like De Freita’s cardio or his weight cut to 135 lbs. De Frieta is basically better at everything but I am very skeptical about his weight cut. Gutierrez uses his kicks well and kicking distance is longer than boxing distance so it’s possible Gutierrez can mitigate the reach advantage through kicks. I can also see De Freita’s boxing lighting Gutierrez up on the feet if his kicks are not effective in maintaining the distance. The question I have is can Gutierrez win enough on the feet to make this a cardio battle? I really want to say yes, but I don’t think Gutierrez has the grappling skills to make De Freita work enough to turn this into a cardio battle. I think De Freita’s boxing works in the first round and implements his grappling and jiu jitsu in the later rounds to finish this fight by decision.
Betting
I really don’t like this weight cut for De Freitas but I think he has the skills to win the fight if he doesn’t gas out. I haven’t seen De Freitas gas out at 135 lbs but I’m not sure enough to bet De Freitas as a favorite. Basically I like everything about De Freitas but I don’t like the weight cut. I’m going to trust what i have seen in the fights and not my imagination. De Freitas will win this fight by decision. And maybe i’ll just throw a 5 spot on a 3rd round finish just in case De Freitas cardio does hit a wall.
·De Freitas wins decision (+185) $10 to win $18.50
·Gutierrez wins in round 3 (+1800) $5 to win $90
Raulian Paiva (+100) vs Rogerio Bontorin (-110)
Raulian Paiva has an advantage in this fight with his hands. He has a longer reach than Bontorin and that is where he hopes to win the fight. He favors his boxing over his kicks. Rogerio Bontorin has fantastic grappling and is excellent on the ground with his jiu jitsu. The fight with Magomed Bibulatov showcased these attributes. Bibulatov had a slight advantage striking, especially with his kicks. Bontorin does have a powerful 1–2 as a southpaw but where he excels is his grappling and jiu jitsu. He doesn’t have elite cardio for a 125 lbs UFC fighter but I don’t see a glaring weakness.
Predictions
Raulian hopes to win this fight boxing Bontorin. Bontorin showed he can hang on the feet with a dangerous striker in Bibulatov and take the fight to the mat. I think Raulian is “light in the ass” and Bontorin finds a way to take this fight to the ground and wins a decision.
Betting
I was impressed with Bontorin against the Russian. I think he uses his grappling and jiu jitsu to expose Raulian’s ground game.
·Bontorin wins (-110) $11 to win $10
Tecia Torres (-150) vs Marina Rodriguez (+140)
Tecia Torres looked amazing vs the karate hottie. She got inside and unloaded vicious punches, her grappling was great, and she was never in any danger on the ground. Torres again looked real good vs Jedrzejczyk, she seemed to win grappling exchanges, Jedrzejczyk just threw too much volume and she lost a close fight. Weili Zhang wore Torres down in their fight, she was much bigger, there wasn’t an area where Torres had the advantage. Marina Rodriguez is the classic muay thai fighter transitioning to mma. She is very long and her striking is sensational but she has trouble grappling. Because of this she found herself on the ground in the Randa Markos fight. Jessica Aguilar isn’t much of a test for Rodriguez. So here we go, a very long muay thai fighter facing off with the tiny tornado.
Prediction
Rodriguez might be the longest fighter Torres faced in the UFC. Her reach and muay thai is excellent. Torres will need to get on the inside and use her grappling. I feel like Rodriguez’s take down defense isn’t up to the standards of the UFC but I think it would be against Torres’ nature to become a wrestler. I’m very torn on this one, the thai clinch with knees can be utilized against a shorter opponent. I feel like Rodriguez judges distance well and will catch Torres with a right hand if she tries to get inside. But, Torres did a good job clinching Jedrzejczyk. But clinching against the fence may not be an advantage for Torres. I feel like Torres will need to have a lot of success taking Rodriguez to the ground to win this fight, Rodriguez has more paths to victory. I’ll take Rodriguez by decision.
Betting
Torres is back with American Top Team, fight camps matter. Rodriguez is an excellent muay thai practitioner and she towers over Torres. I think Rodriguez’s size will be the difference, Rodriguez will win a decision here.
·Rodriguez wins (+140) $10 to win $14
Cyril Gane (-380) Raphael Pessoa (+340)
There is film on Cyril Gane, he moves well and obviously has power. He has won all of his fights by knockout. His most recent fight he fought Rouggers Souza in Quebec. I’m a big Jason Herzog fan, feel like he might be the best in the business behind Herb Dean. Jason Herzog was the referee in this contest. Gane connected and Souza was dazed, he was dazed and Gane continued to connect. Eventually he falls backwards and clearly has no idea where he is. His mouth guard falls out while he’s on his knees waiting for Gane to deliver the final blow of the fight, having no idea where he is. Jason Herzog calls time out, proceeds to put the mouth guard back in to the kneeling fighter’s mouth. Pessoa is on his knees, having no idea where he is, tee’d up for Gane. Jason Herzog literally calls time in, and he immediately gets knocked out. It was absurd.
Prediction
This fight is basically 2 random heavyweights fighting. One looks jacked, the other doesn’t. I’ll go with the jacked dude.
Betting
It would take a special kind of person to bet Gane in this one. I don’t hate a bet on the big underdog but i’m going to sit this one out.
·Pass
Enrique Barzola (-120) Bobby Moffet (+110)
Bobby Moffet is a wrestler that's good on the ground. In 2 UFC fights I've seen him lock in 3 darce chokes. He's also worked his way out of triangles., hes a tough guy on the ground. He’s not a great striker on his feet, he wants to do most of his work on the ground, and hes decently skilled at it. I haven’t seen an issue with his cardio. I did not like the way Moffet went down to a straight left from Bryce Mitchell in the first round. Enrique Barzola is not a high level striker, his best attributes are his cardio and wrestling. He doesn’t have remarkable jiu jitsu and he has trouble holding opponents on the mat. He beat Brandon Davis because his cardio was better and he rode him for 2 rounds to get a decision. He didn’t have success with his takedowns in the Kevin Aguilar fight and the striking difference lead to a losing decision. I did find that Barzola looked to be the fresher fighter in the 3rd round of that fight because he was desperate.
Prediction
There are a couple questions that need to be answered in this fight that will decide the winner. The first question is, will Barzola have success taking Moffet to the mat, will his wrestling be successful in this fight? Moffet is a good wrestler, I don’t think there is a big wrestling advantage to be had. I also don’t think Barzola will be able to keep Moffet on the mat if he does get him down. Barzola beat Davis because of his cardio, will that same path to victory happen against Moffet? I don’t think it does, I do think Moffet has good cardio. Moffet is a good match up for Barzola’s 2 main paths to victory, combine that with an excellent ground game and good cardio, Moffet wins a close decision against Barzola.
Betting
I think Moffet is going to win this fight, hes the underdog. I still think there’s really good value at +110 for Moffet. There was a lot better value earlier in the week, people have been betting on him bringing the line down.
·Bobby Moffet (+110) $30 to win $33
Rodolfo Viera (-235) Oskar Piechota (+195)
Oskar Piechota is very patient in his stand up. He wants his opponent to throw first so he can counter by clinching, he doesn’t seem too interested in slipping and countering with a right hand. He’s not a high level striker, but i’m giving him “mutant on the ground status” along with my boy Claudio Silva. I keep wanting to tarnish Piechota’s striking but he knocked down Jonathan Wilson and he knocked out Tim Williams, that’s not nothing. Piechota definitely has improved his striking, I actually thought he was the stronger striker vs Meerschaert. Unfortunately, Piechota couldn’t finish Meerschaert on the ground in the 1st round, and he couldn’t handle Meerschaert on the top in the 2nd round. This kid is tough, the way he lost, he showed his will to win. Chris Tognoni is an awful ref. When you have Oskar Piechota fighting Gerald Meerschaert you don’t stand them up when one fighter is in full guard after like a minute. To compound that, he didn’t protect Piechota from himself when he was out on his feet taking elbow bombs to the head over and over. He let the fight go to the ground where Meerschaert decided to choke him because he was getting tired of punching. He easily slipped a rear naked in because Piechota is only operating on muscle memory at this point. He tried to tap but couldn’t physically muster it, proceeded to go unconscious and here’s Chris Tognoni lifting his arm as if he’s refereeing in the WWF. Chris Tognoni is not my favorite. Okay, so I’m hearing a lot of buzz around this Rodolfo Viera guy. apparently hes a jiu jitsu wizzard. He landed a smooth takedown against Vitaliy Nemchinov and I think his wrestling is actually good. He’s a wild card, he will need to put Piechota on his back to have a chance to win this fight.
Prediction
If Rodolfo Vieira puts Piechota on his back I do think he’s screwed. I do think Vieira has better wrestling than you would think coming from a jiu jitsu wizard. Piechota has made improvements throughout his 3 fight UFC career and he does have the advantage on the feet. I won’t be able to look myself in the mirror tomorrow after proclaiming Piechota, “mutant on the ground” status if pick against him. I’ve been hearing too much smoke about this Viera guy. I don’t want to bet on Tecia Torres’ wrestling path to victory because that’s not her strength and I don’t want to bet on Piechota’s striking to win because its not his strength. If there’s enough smoke, there’s fire, I’m staying away from this one. I’m not that good looking anyway, I don’t need to look at myself in the mirror.
Betting
I’m staying as far away as I can with this one. Rooting for Piechota though.
·Pass
Volkan Oezdemir (-155) Ilir Latifi (+145)
I’m a Volkan Oezdemir guy. He’s riding a 3 fight losing streak but he got exposed by Daniel Cormier, he lost a tough fight to Anthony Smith, and he got screwed by the judges against Dominick Reyes. The book on Volkan is he gases out early. He did gas out against Cormier and Smith but he went 3 rounds with Reyes, I am not handicapping Oezdemir because of cardio issues. Oezdemir has knockout power at light heavyweight, he likes to stand up and box. This fight has been made at least 3 times. I believe in Sweden these guys were supposed to go but Latifi had back issues and it was called off. Anyways, it looks like its happening this time in Uruguay.
Prediction
Oezdemir’s reach and his boxing is going to touch Latifi until he falls. Latifi pulled out of the Sweden fight because of back issues, back issues don’t go away. If you look at Latifi’s record everyone he's lost to is an excellent mma fighter, Mousasi, Blachowicz, Bader, and Anderson. He beats the guys he should beat. Oezdemir is still a top 5 light heavy weight, he will knock Latifi out in the 2nd round.
Betting
Awhile ago I put 3 unites on Oezdemir at -130, nothing changed, Oezdemir wins this fight easily by knockout, when the TKO/KO line comes out i’ll bet that.
·Oezdemir wins (-155) 3 units $46.50 to win $30
·Oezdemir wins by TKO/KO (+155) $10 to win $15
·Oezdemir wins in 2nd round (+550) $5 to win $27.50
Luiz Eduardo Garagorr (-115) Humberto Bandenay (+105)
Well Humberto Bandenay’s first 2 fights didn’t last long. The left kick he caught Martin Bravo wasn’t a fluke, he throws his left kick and left hand a lot. In his 2nd fight his glove tap was refused and 20 seconds later he's knocked out. He did throw up a quality arm bar attempt from the bottom before he was knocked out with a slam and follow up punches. I do see a cardio issue in Bandenay’s most recent fight. Luiz Eduardo Garagorri is a muay thai fighter that hasn’t fought anyone that is relatively good at mma. He’s a hometown guy from Uruguay, my guess is that is why he is fighting on this card. A lot of mma fans don’t like this fight card. Having this fight as the co co main event is evidence for that opinion.
Prediction
It's hard to make a prediction when I can’t really find anything to watch on the favorite in the fight. A home town Muay Thai guy, beyond that, I have no idea who he is.
Betting
I’m going to pass on this fight, really weird fight.
·Pass
Vincente Luque (-230) Mike Perry (+190)
Vincente Luque is the most underrated welterweight in the division. Extremely sharp decision making with his strikes, mixes in some nice leg kicks. He has good jiu jitsu as well. I’m a big fan, saw him in Rochester. If he has an achilles heel, I feel like he has an affinity to start brawling and he's capable of getting clipped. He lost to Leon Edwards by decision but Leon Edwards is a stud. Mike Perry is very entertaining, if anyone hasn’t seen Mike Perry talk about his coaches talking to him during the fight, take a look at it. Perry likes to stand in front of you and throw his hands. He's real strong which helps him clinching against the cage and his take down defense. He switched to Jackson Winkeljohn a couple fights ago. He’s at his best standing in front of you and throwing his hands, his ground game can be exposed.
Predictions
Luque and Perry will stand in front of each other for 3 rounds and i’m excited about it. Luque striking is too good for Perry, he will get the better of him for 3 rounds. On the other hand, Perry is a strong guy and throws really good elbows from the clinch. My only concern for this fight is Luque was clipped and sat down by Ryan Barberena in their fight. He was also clipped by the late fill in Derrick Krantz in the 1st round in Rochester. Mike Perry is certainly capable of catching Luque. It’s a popular opinion that Perry at +200 is a great bet. The problem is Perry has been +200 since opening lines came out and hasn’t moved. If people really believe that the line would’ve moved. Luque continues his assault on the welterweight division and wins by decision even though his last 9 victories came by KO.
Betting
Luque is going to win a decision vs Perry. Perry is a real tough guy and will pose some threats with the clinch but Perry loses a decision. I think I’m just going to watch this fight, I like both fighters and don’t need a reason to be interested in this one.
·Pass
Valentina Shevchenko (-1000) Liz Carmouche (+800)
“It is what it is” we all know what this is. Flyweight is Valentina’s division, she now has a home. Joanna Jedrzejczyk was never close, Jessica Eye wasn’t close and Liz Carmouche won’t be close.
Prediction
Valentina Shevchenko wins this fight by knockout. Muay Thai is Shevchenko’s nature and I think she uses it for 5 rounds or less.
Betting
·Shevchenko wins by TKO/KO (+220) $10 to win $22
·Shevchenko Sister’s parlay continued from last week $11 to win $10
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SBR Sports Picks - YouTube Betting strategies & tips for MMA. Ep1.Growing your bankroll UFC Fight Night, NASCAR Race Night, NBA Format 05/29/2020  Game Time Decisions 5 ways to bet on a UFC match MUST KNOW!! Sports Betting Bankroll Strategies

More About UFC Betting Odds. UFC OVER/UNDER Lines. Sportsbooks such as 5Dimes are almost always first out with these “MMA totals,” and it’s the same as betting totals in football or basketball. In MMA, the sportsbook sets a total (usually 1.5 rounds for a three-round fight or 2.5 rounds for a five-round fight) and you get to bet whether ... Claudia Gadelha vs. Angela Hill co-headlines UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris this coming Saturday, May 16. This one should be a classic grappler vs. striker showdown, but the top UFC betting sites favor Gadelha for the win. She will, however, be putting it on the line against Hill, one of the most active fighters on the roster with six bouts under her belt since March 2019. See How The Judges Scored Every Round Of UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs Sandhagen. Read the story Results. 17 hours ago. UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs Sandhagen Results All The Big Winners From Flash ... Our games are tested by the New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement to provide games that are fair and operate correctly. Only customers 21 and over are permitted to play our games.If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Subject to regulatory licensing requirements. UFC Fight Night Moneyline Projections and Picks In addition to moneylines and over/unders, there are numerous ways to bet on an MMA fight — including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether or not the match will go to a decision or finish inside the distance.

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Later on Joey Oddessa steps up and in to discuss who hes betting on in the upcoming UFC fights and later on Steve Merril joins Gabe and Cam to give his takes on the NASCAR Superheroes 500 ... The 2019 season could have been a lost one for the Pittsburgh Steelers thanks to Ben Roethlisberger going down for the season only two games in, but the defense stepped up, resulting in an 8-8 ... FROM $100 TO $100,000 BETTING ON SPORT GAMES ( LEVERAGE THE POWER OF THE 10% RULE ... The BEST Online Betting Sites for Betting on UFC and MMA (2019) - Duration: 3:04. Odds On Favorites ... Bankroll management is just as important as picking games correctly. I give you 7 MUST KNOW Bankroll Strategies that'll help you be more successful in sports gambling for the long run. For those of you curious, I finished the night up about $40: https://i.imgur.com/VKCB8rO.png This video demonstrates how I use my in-game MLB dashboard I dev...

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