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A brief look at Native Tongue Tour ticket sales

So...a caveat to begin: I have access to an extraordinarily small amount of data regarding data sales. That cannot be emphasized enough. Take all of my commentary, and particularly my tentative conclusions, with a healthy dose of skepticism. I'll be detailing my methodology and assumptions next, so feel free to skip to the end for my commentary and overall assessments if that doesn't interest you.
With that said, I've been tracking ticket sales! More precisely, I've done the following:
- Take screenshots for each concert venue on the following dates: October 27th, December 21st, and February 14th (first day of tour). This only applies to venues where seat maps are available, and it is possible to generate some assessment as to sales. I will also take a screenshot of each venue on the day of the show, when possible.
- Tally ticket sales for a select few venues (7 total, although I may add 1-2 more). I initially selected only those venues which are completely seated (no GA standing), or boast large seated sections. I then added 20 Monroe Live (GR) and The Fillmore (Detroit), as those are the two shows I'll be attending on tour.
- Generate broad revenue projections for the tour, with several assumptions.
Now, for a word on those assumptions...
Assumptions/Methodology
- For the screenshots, I assume that the shade of blue (or green) indicates a general availability threshold for tickets in a given section. TicketmasteLiveNation (same company) base their seat map colours on how many tickets remain in the section; a lighter shade connotes fewer tickets. A screenshot of The Wiltern in Los Angeles proves illustrative. Note how the darker green section has sold roughly 75-80% of its tickets, whereas the lighter section has sold 90%+. IMPORTANT CAVEAT: This is a very low-resolution metric for assessing ticket sales. I've no idea what the actual sales numbers are in these sections when they're GA, nor the precise cutoff criteria for a particular section. The shade of blue/green serves as a very broad rule of thumb, nothing more.
- For revenue projections, I simply took the self-reported capacity of the venue as well as the cheapest available ticket price, fees included. Obviously the vast majority of the venues utilize a tiered pricing system for their ticket options, but this is just a broad assessment of revenue potential. Some venues will exceed these revenue projections, and some will fall short. Max revenue potentials will be almost universally higher than my numbers, given that I didn't take the time to account for higher-priced ticket options. These projections also fail to account for the following revenue streams: Parking passes, liquoalcohol sales, food sales, etc. Think of these projections as being accurate to an order of magnitude, but certainly not precisely.
- When I tracked ticket sales for the predominantly seated venues, I divided up each seat map by sections and (painstakingly...) counted seats in these sections. I reserve the right to be wrong. Counting errors are easy to make. However, I stand by the general accuracy of my numbers.
Analysis: Overall Tour Revenue Potential
Here's a table of all 43 dates on the Native Tongue Tour!
Dates: 43
Total Revenue: $3,730,000
Average Revenue: $87,000
Revenue SD: $35,000
Total Tickets Available: 81,197
Average Tickets Available: 1,888
Tickets SD: 711
Recall that this revenue projection is for the venues, not Switchfoot. It assumes that all tickets were sold, all at the same price. In reality, revenue may well be higher than this for the tour. It depends.
Switchfoot's playing a surfeit of mid-tier venues in most of the major markets around the country. Almost all of the venues hold 1,000+ people.
I'm fairly certain that Switchfoot's touring on a contract with TicketmasteLiveNation. Their last few tours have occurred primarily at LiveNation venues, and Native Tongue is no exception. Most bands receive booking payments for individual shows, but given that Switchfoot's playing 30+ venues owned by the same company, they may well receive a payment based on the overall tour. Then LiveNation decides which cities and venues they want Switchfoot to hit. According to this somewhat questionable source from 2014, Switchfoot commanded ~$30-40k per show as a booking fee. It's fair to say that their price likely hasn't gone down. So let's assume Switchfoot's taking home $40k/show; that equates to about $1,700,000 for the entire tour. That leaves about $2,000,000 for the venues.
Of course, neither the venues nor Switchfoot will be pocketing $1.5 million+. A venue has to pay staff, event insurance, utilities, and advertise the show. Concomitantly, Switchfoot's renting a tour bus and a semi to haul their equipment, paying support staff (tour manager, sound guy [still Bobby?], guitar tech, merch guy [no longer Josh!], bus driver). They've also got full-time staff back in Sandy Eggo, and A&R fees plus insurance to pay. And that doesn't even account for Colony House's or Tyson Motsenbocker's takes! So while either figure is eye-popping, it's not like that's the profit each party is making.
With that said, I bet each member of Switchfoot takes home at least $100,000 for the tour. Remember that they have families to support, and if they're touring less, this tour may provide the bulk of their income for the year. California is also a very expensive place to live. The guys aren't exactly millionaires, but they're being fairly compensated, to be sure.
It's interesting to note the distribution of tour dates relating to the day of the week. It's no accident that Switchfoot's playing every Friday and Saturday, and conversely playing very few Mondays and Tuesdays. This hold true for almost any business or event, whether commercial retailers, restaurants, movie theaters, sporting events, etc. People want to go out on the town when they're on their day off, or a day off is imminent (Thursday).
Analysis: Venue Screenshots
Look, I'm not posting all 100+ screenshots. I'll present a few representative samples.
Note the progression of The Ryman in Nashville. When I first began taking screenshots for the tour, I felt really worried. That first shot in October shows barely 50% of tickets sold! However, this show ultimately sold out. So first appearances aren't necessarily very indicative of final sales.
It's important to note that there are effectively two types of concerts: Concerts that sell out immediately and concerts that sell tickets gradually, sometimes resulting in a sellout. Artists like Taylor Swift or Coldplay belong to the former category, whereas Switchfoot belongs to the latter.
The remainder of my screenshots aren't particularly helpful, given the preponderance of GA-heavy venues on this tour. Let's look at The Wiltern again, since I utilized it as an example earlier!
October 27th
December 21st
February 14th
Sadly, I neglected to zoom sufficiently on the December 21st screenshot. Also, the shift from blue to green is jarring! Nevertheless, notice how everything was dark in the first screenshot, the LOGE became a lighter shade in December, and GA became the lighter shade in February? There's your sales progression. Also note the chunk of seats in the balcony sold since October (and note the line of 7-8 seats in a section that had been "sold out"; it's well known that ticketing sites withhold some tickets so that they can "re-sell" them at a higher price). Overall, though, it's not the most useful metric to go by. There could still be 200 unsold GA tickets, or less than 50. Shades on a colour scale really don't get us very far.
Analysis: Individual Venue Ticket Sales Tracking
I tracked the following venues:
- Ryman Auditorium in Nashville
- Wellmont Theater in Montclair
- Aztec Theatre in San Antonio
- State Theatre in Minneapolis
- Uptown Theater in Kansas City
- 20 Monroe Live in Grand Rapids
- The Fillmore in Detroit
The Ryman, State, and Uptown were unique in that each consisted entirely of seated tickets. I selected the other four due to personal proximity and high numbers of seated tickets (Wellmont, Aztec).
Here's the progression of percentage of tickets sold vs. date. I sampled once weekly. It's important to remember that percentage of tickets sold is in reference to seated tickets. Some of these venues include GA sections, which I could not measure. So while some venues have sold less than 50% of their seated tickets, that may have no correlation with GA ticket sales.
While each venue except for the Ryman began with less than 50% seated tickets sold, all have steadily progressed. None of them are really on track to be sellouts, but sales are more respectable than initial appearances. I never counted "re-sale" tickets because I've seen enough evidence for past Switchfoot tours that Switchfoot isn't the kind of band wherein dozens of tickets actually exchange hands on StubHub. Mostly, it's just the venues playing games. I'll never forget seeing 100+ tickets on StubHub for Switchfoot's Fillmore show in Detroit for 2016...then they all disappeared from StubHub and magically reappeared on Ticketmaster the day before the show. Haha.
Of interest are the couple of instances wherein a venue dropped in tickets sold from week to week. Again, I think those are TicketmasteLiveNation shenanigans. Sometimes tickets that were withheld from the market are reintroduced, which means that they weren't actually sold in prior weeks even though I had counted them as such.
I'm not doing curve-fitting for these samples. I don't think it's very relevant. Ticket sales held pretty steady for most of the venues, and a linear trend isn't all that noteworthy.
For each individual venue that I tracked, I also delineated by seating section, if applicable. For instance, the State Theatre in Minneapolis consists entirely of seated tickets. See October 27th, December 21st, and February 14th. It's divided into four Main Floor sections, three LOGE sections, and four Balcony sections, as you can observe. I tracked ticket sales by each section [MF denotes Main Floor, B denotes Balcony]. In theory, I actually know the revenue for the State Theatre, since I know the tickets sold in each section and the price of the tickets in said section (with the caveat that prices in the main floor section increase as they near the stage, which I don't account for). The State Theatre's pulling in roughly $44,000 as of February 14th purely via ticket sales (I didn't actually account for fees in this particular instance, so if you assume fees comprise roughly 25% of the listed price, as is the case for most of these venues, revenue's more like $55,000). Of course, some funky things are going on. You'll notice that some of the sections jump in tickets available from week to week...I think tickets are being withheld from the market and then are reintroduced once enough other tickets are sold. So some of the tickets that I'm counting as sold may not actually be, well, sold...
It's super interesting, but a somewhat tangential subject re: ticket sales is optimization. In this case, the State Theatre offers many different seating sections/prices. How are these determined? Well, you want to maximize your objective function, which in this case is revenue. Your objective function is defined as x = n1*y + n2*z. That's a very simplified version, but in essence y and z are prices for a given seating section, and n1 and n2 denote number of tickets sold. Hence x, your overall revenue. Now, how a venue goes about maximizing revenue hearkens back to their forecasting and modeling. A venue wants to set prices so as to maximize revenue, not necessarily ticket sales.
Commentary/Conclusions
I must reiterate that none of us really know how ticket sales are faring for this tour. Only TicketmasteLiveNation and Switchfoot's management are privy to the full sales and revenue data. At best, we're speculating given the very limited data available to us.
With that said, I expect the tour to be a financial success...despite the fact that there may be very few actual sellouts.
In an ideal world, Switchfoot would be perfectly matched to each venue they play and sell out a ton of shows. That would be awesome! But judging a tour by how many sellouts it has is misleading...
You see, most major cities boast a slew of different venues at various sizes. Detroit's a city that I have some experience with. You've got St. Andrew's Music Hall, which holds 1,000 people. You've got the Fox Theater, which holds 5,174 people. Royal Oak Music Theater holds 1,700. Also a ton of smaller clubs. Switchfoot's playing at The Fillmore, which holds 2,900.
When you're slotting a band into one of your venues in a city, you've got to decide which capacity is the best fit. LiveNation also owns St. Andrew's (unsure about the rest). They could've booked Switchfoot to play St. Andrew's, and it'd be a sellout! But, as you see, it's not that simple.
Switchfoot's show at the Fillmore won't be a sellout, of course. Probably not even very close. But it probably would be a sellout at Royal Oak, and definitely at St. Andrew's. It's a matter of optics. I went to the 2016 Switchfoot show at the Fillmore. My friend and I thought the crowd looked pathetic, and it did...but that's significantly influenced by the size of the venue. Switchfoot could've sold 2,000 tickets for that 2016 show and still had 900 empty seats, which looks terrible. It'd look better if they played a sold out Royal Oak, but in reality they probably sold 200-300 more tickets at the Fillmore.
Of course, sometimes shows actually do fail to hit projections. When Switchfoot played Grand Rapids in 2016 the day after the Fillmore, they played the Deltaplex. Both Switchfoot and Relient K played the Deltaplex a decade ago, and sold it out. But this time, they didn't even come close! I saw pictures, and I described it as a debacle. Notice how Switchfoot's Instagram creatively shot a picture that doesn't show that the GA crowd was only 400-500 people? And they're not playing the Deltaplex again, are they? Yet, according to MLive, that show sold 2,000+ tickets, which is actually a respectable number. And what's the capacity of GR's brand new mid-tier concert venue? 2,600! It's a better fit. Sometimes a band doesn't sell out because they're not popular. Sometimes it's purely a sizing mismatch. Sometimes it's just because they're stuck in between two venue sizes, and you're going to err on the larger venue which garners you more ticket sales even if the crowd looks poor relative to the size of the concert hall.
Most of the time, a band only posts a crowd shot to their socials when it's a good turnout and looks impressive. It's encouraging to see a few of those shots on Switchfoot's Instagram already, which is a sign that sales are solid. The Tabernacle in Atlanta seems to have drawn a ton of people, even though it wasn't a "sellout" on paper.
More factors to consider:
- Not all venues are created equal. It's all about location, location, location. You could argue that the Orange Peel in Asheville, North Carolina selling out their 1,000 tickets is more impressive than a venue like The Wiltern in LA selling 2,500 tickets or so. Why? Well, LA constitutes a massively larger pool of potential concertgoers to pull from. Asheville's population: 90,000. LA's: 4 million!
- The best comparison for how Switchfoot's doing: Examine other artists at the same venue within a month or two. Ceteris paribus, you've got a roughly head-to-head matchup. Of course, not everything else is equal. You'd still have to account for day of week, number of bands at a show, number of headliners, price of tickets, etc. But it's the best option we've got, really. I didn't do this, because the time expenditure would be prohibitive.
But, case in point: Let's go back to the Fillmore in Detroit. I don't have a screenshot, sadly, but a couple weeks ago Bring Me The Horizon, Thrice, and Fever 333 played a show there. Tickets sold out, and GA tickets were going for $100+ at face price before StubHub! Suffice it to say that that show was massively successful, and made a lot of money. But...BMTH is, to my understanding, a much bigger band right now than Switchfoot. Thrice routinely headlines venues around 1,000 capacity, or the venue tier just under Switchfoot's general tier, and they're opening for BMTH. Fever 333's a new supergroup and a 2019 Grammy nominee, and they're the opener.
Better comparison: Andrew McMahon in the Wilderness. I have no idea who this is. Never heard of his music before. But he's headlining The Fillmore on Friday, two days before Switchfoot. Friday's a slightly better day than Sunday, to be sure, and tickets are about $5 cheaper across the board. Here's a screenshot of his current ticket availability. You'll note more tickets sold than Switchfoot in the seated sections, particularly in the LOGE. Now, Andrew McMahon won't sell out the Fillmore either. But he's doing a little better than Switchfoot.
I also lied a little bit. A comparison with the 2016 Looking for America tour would be most apropos...but I didn't track anything for that tour, so such a comparison's impossible.
- Proximity and timing of other tour dates is another factor. If you're a fan in Michigan, like I am, most likely you're going to choose either GR or Detroit, since they're back-to-back. If Switchfoot only hit GR, say, undoubtedly you'd sell more tickets for GR and Cleveland from the Detroit-area crowd. So maybe GR's now a sellout. But I guarantee that the tour makes more money with two 80% capacity Michigan shows than one Michigan sellout. It's a constraint of touring logistics, and there's no real way to obviate it. A tour might make more money, in theory, if it segregated nearby shows. You'd get a lot more repeat business if you hit GR in February and Detroit in April. But that's simply neither realistic nor feasible.
This same principle applies to Star Wars movies, for example. If Disney didn't release standalones, and waited three years between episodes like with the first two trilogies, they'd almost certainly make more money per movie due to increasingly pent-up demand. Disney doesn't necessarily want The Last Jedi or IX to make less money individually, but they're fine with it since releasing one movie per year nets them more revenue/profit overall.
- Every venue has a break-even point for ticket sales. We're not privy to this. We, as fans, like to see concert halls filled to capacity. A tour can be quite successful even if most venues are around 80-90% full, even if it looks worrisome.
I'm admittedly concerned that some of the venues with barely more than 1,000 tickets haven't sold out yet. I'd like to see that more often. Plus, it's very, very odd that Switchfoot announced one of their Seattle shows as a sellout almost two months ago...and the second date still hasn't sold out yet? I haven't checked StubHub, but I wonder if more games are being played...
With that said, a tour can be successful even if a handful of dates on said tour aren't. LiveNation/Ticketmaster could lose money on a few dates and still turn a solid profit regardless, because it's the overall trend that matters.
- Also of note is that this isn't a co-headlining tour. Relient K undoubtedly drew more people to the 2016 shows than Colony House does to this one, even though CH's on the rise. You may love Tyson Motsenbocker, but I guarantee you no one's coming out to see him except for immediately family and friends. Haha.
The real test? Wait until Switchfoot's next fall/spring headlining tour, and compare the venues they're booked at. Are they similar capacities? Well, that's a referendum on the success of this tour, which forms the basis for future projections by people with a whole lot more data and training than me.
If you're on the fence about this tour, I encourage you to go! I suspect Switchfoot's past the days of doing multiple full headlining tours for an album, (i.e. WTLST: 1.5 legs of Looking for America and 1 leg of Looking for Summer, FW: Movie tour, 2014 spring/fall headline tours) and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them fade west for the fall and stay home. If you want to see them this year, now is the time!
P.S.: I wrote this post for free, but if somebody on here could post a picture of the merch available at their show, I'd consider that ample compensation for my time. [;
TL;DR: Concert ticket sales are complicated, but Switchfoot's probably doing fine!
submitted by happyisayuppieword to switchfoot [link] [comments]

My WoW predictions(Spoilers Main)

I will be focusing on the plots in the north as it is the one i'm most excited about some my speculation are supported by textuel evidence other is only my imagination.
We will start with the battel of ice which will happen two weeks(taking into account the distance from cb to winterfell and the speed of raven flying in harsh weather) before the mutiny at castle black and around the time of theon excecution delaying his death.the battel as discussed will be a stannis victory but it won't be a one sided massacre even if the traps save his flanks his army is composed mainly of clansman poorly equiped and not well trained as shown against the ironborn while his main core can't handle the freezing temperature.stannis will have a numerical advantage but it won't be decided until manderly switch sides.i think the winner if this battel is LW as after hoosten death he become the leader of the frey army Lw who murdered his own brother so he can get ride of the rest of the freys from theon pov we don't hear about the riverland so LW is opperating on the knowledge that Ryman is still alive along other frey so if stannis win and he prove useful to him as walder can confirm that rickon is still alive who is responsible for the sack and weither bolton was a culprit in the red wedding or not.some theory suggets that stannis has plans to take winterfell by a ruse but i think that an overstatimting of stannis ability as it require for stannis to forsee the events from all the way while he was at the wall while we know he still counted to take dreadfort with the karstark so until jon's letter and the investigation he wasn't aware of their betrayal not to mention the only way the ruse could work is when no one survives the battel from bolton camp. After the battel stannis will waot until massey reach castle black and for mance to come south with a wildling army,there are some theories suggesting that stannis planned for arya escape from the beginning if he knew why did he keep insisting on legitimasing jon even though it went against his conscieness while he could easily produce a trueborn stark and win more allies?When mance saw that jon took steps to save the wildling and his child he decided to give his duty to val to reach out to tormund while he went south save arya repay his debt and accelerate the bolton power collapse. While stannis and manderly wait out for more reinforcements (manderly will send for his son to call his man at arms) however selyse and shireen will arrive melisandre and davos informing stannis of the mutiny and rickon death.* Even though Roose lost a substainable number of man now his forces are cohesive so he can be safe behind the walls of winterfell until stannis lose his strenght.
At the wall Jon corpse will be carried to the ice cells until it is resseructed.while inside Ghost jon will receive visions from bran about winterfell stannis theon and the white walkers who massacred the population at hardhome,freightened by their overwhelming strenght jon is resolved to stop them by any mean.his return from death give jon a mythical aura amongst blavk brother and wildling making him a dictator at the wall.*while waiting for his rangers to find the weeper so he can deal with him by either killing him or turning his people against him Davos arrive at the wall explaining that the magnar of skagos wants ship to move his people to the mainland after the rising threat of wights coming from the depth of the frozen sea in return for delivering rickon and aiding (else why put a thenn at karhold near skagos) after hearing this melisandre depart with some of her man and other nightsman to catch up with selyse and manipulate the war in jon favor.Theon guided by bran raven reach the wall with asha and is given pardon thanks to jeyne.while the rest of the fre folk pass through the wall jon formulate his plans to march south but theon and asha account making him dubious of stannis chances and instead theon advice to attack the undefended dreadfort using the secret tunnel.on their way to eastwatch jon meet the skagosi or what remained of them after the storm and wight attack rickon is confirmed dead.the free folk march south and are joined by styr from karhold to succesfuly take the dreafort.
After reaching stannis who became increasingly desperate by knews of davos failure and melisandre lies stating that the banker is lost at sea.she then start preaching about a great victory and antagonising the old god worshiper so both sides are at each other throat,perhpas melisandre will burn a weirwood or offer a northner to the flame,stannis lack of charisma will push northners to follow him as he unable to keep a mobb of starving fanatics under leash and with no other means to win the war stannis offer shireen to the flames in hope of granting him victory but the storm dies out so he is exposed to bolton raids and the northner decide to abondon him including melisandre who disapper while wearing glamour after the battel she enter winterfell wearing bolton armor while the northner feasted their victory i think melisandre planned to assasinate roose but ramsey took care of that for her breaking guest rights killing his father and his mother in law with LW help as he lost the bet on stannis.so she find mance and force him to help her escape. After taking the dreadfort jon scouts reports to him about stannis defeat and help gather his scattered his host along what happened at winterfell,jon knowing that he can't take winterfell even with many times his numbers march on winterfell hoping to lure Ramsay out meanwhile Manderly would remain behind and come later on to create a route.the battel is a success and the gate of winterrfell are broken thanks to the giants and mammoths strenght.lady dustin is released from her cell before starving herself and trial is put to deliver punishement on tgose who took part in breaking guest rights.Jon summons the northners and at which robb's will surface making a legitimate ruler.
submitted by Mizaistorm to asoiaf [link] [comments]

(Spoilers All) The Future of House Frey

Since the Red Wedding, retribution against House Frey has been highly sought after, perhaps surpassed solely by the desire to see something horrible happen to Ramsay Bolton, and for a time the death of Joffrey.
Now, as we know from the epilogue to ASOS, the resurrected Catelyn has taken on the identity of Lady Stoneheart and has taken over the Brotherhood without Banners for the purpose of slaying as many Freys as she can. Moreover, as Wyman Manderly has reminded us, The North Remembers, and they too will seek a bloody path of vengeance against House Frey. However, the fact is that there are so many Freys means that it's rather unlikely for them all to be baked into pies and slain by outlaws. Such a practice would just take too long. Instead, the main and most likely way for the Freys to get karma'd is a large sort of extinction event, but who would cause such a thing? The Freys themselves.
It's been foreshadowed throughout the books that, when Lord Walder dies, House Frey may get rather competitive for the seat of Lord of the Crossing. The line of succession is essentially memorized by Big Walder and Little Walder, many of Lord Walder's descendents name their offspring in his honor to seek his favor, and the tensions among his brood seek to tear the House apart. In AFFC, Cersei comments that Lord Walder's successor would be more than willing to trot out some undesirable relatives. And as Merret Frey states in his epilogue:
He [Lord Frey] could not possibly last much longer, all his sons agreed. And when he goes, everything will change, and not for the better
Galanix's Guide to Westerosi Succession
The above link has the complete listing of House Frey's line of succession. It's very long. Rather than analyzing each one, I will be focusing on the major contenders for the seat of Lord of the Twins or those who may otherwise be significant.

Edwyn Frey and Black Walder

It is impossible to discuss one brother in this context without the other. Edwyn is the current heir, and after Edwyn's daughter comes Black Walder. For those looking at the family tree, they are the grandsons of the deceased Stevron Frey, Lord Walder's eldest son, by way of Stevron's eldest son via Stevron's first wife, Ryman Frey. Ryman was slain by the BWB on his way back to the Twins. Ryman had three sons, Edwyn (who married Janyce Hunter), Black Walder, and finally Petyr "Pimple" Frey (deceased, married Mylenda Caron).
These two are at the top of the line of succession, and thus have the most legal claim to the seat. But there's some complications. Firstly, know that these two are described as being rather hateful, cold, and easily angered. Generally not nice guys. But as much as they're like to toss out half the House when they takeover, they hate each other even more (as stated by Merrett Frey). When their father, Ser Ryman, died, Edwyn immediately thought to blame Black Walder, and tells Jaime he believes that Black Walder will kill him next. When Lord Walder dies (likely in TWOW), this cold feud will turn hot.
Now, here's where things get interesting. Black Walder is unmarried, and has slept around quite a bit within the Frey household. His affairs include relations with Fair Walda, Gatehouse Ami, Lord Walder's 7th wife, and most importantly, the wives of both his brothers. This casts paternity doubts on several Freys, most importantly Edwyn's young daughter. Combine this with Big Walder and Little Walder placing Black Walder as fourth, and later third in line when (at those times), he should have been fifth and fourth indicates that Edwyn's daughter Walda is not expected to be a contender. Combine this with our knowledge of Black Walder's affairs, and it could very well be that Walda is another bastard and Edwyn has no legitimate offspring, and if Big and Little Walder believe it, then part of Black Walder's play for the Twins could be declaring Walda illegitimate, thus meaning the only thing in between him and his seat is Edwyn. No matter who wins in the end, one of these two will die. And once that is over with, both are fully willing to exile most of the rest of their house without any guilt. The rest of Stevron Frey's progeny do not seem to be of any note, nor are the remainder of Aenys, Perriane, or Jared Frey's offspring, and are thus unlikely to be major contenders. Though there is an Aegon "Bloodborn", an outlaw.

Emmon Frey

Emmon is the second son of Lord Walder, married to Genna Lannister, and is currently serving as Lord of Riverrun. Stevron's offspring are all ahead of him in the legal line, but things may get a bit quirky with the line of succession in the Frey civil war. However, as the Lord of Riverrun (though not Lord Paramount of the Riverlands) Emmon still stands at a fairly good position regardless of whether he inherits the Twins. It is unlikely that he and his offspring will attempt to seize the Twins.
However, he may very well be seen as a refuge for many fleeing Freys. Riverrun has a garrison of 300, is a fairly defensible castle, can call on a reliable bit of Lannister support, and Emmon does not seem to be a man who has any feuds with his family (though who knows if Genna would truly allow any Freys in). Despite this though, the fact that Emmon and his children are essentially 'in the way' of the line advancing could cause a conflict for any major players for the seat later down the line, especially if other Freys who are 'in the way' flee to Riverrun, but ultimately it presents an obstacle.
Or at least it would if Emmon Frey had any sort of expected lifespan. He has replaced the Tully's as the owner of Riverrun. And there is a Tully running around, leading a pack of outlaws, hunting down Freys. And one of those outlaws seems to have found a place as a singer in Genna's household. In Riverrun. The math here is simple. Hopefully Genna will live, because Genna's pretty awesome. But that's a prominent Frey removed from the equation (even if some of his children are elsewhere). Moreso if Lady Stoneheart waits until after the Freys collapse and some go to Riverrun (if that happens).

Offspring of Amarei Crakehall, The Third Lady Frey

None of these are likely to make any major plays, but, for the sake of thoroughness, it is worthwhile to detail where they stand.
Hosteen Frey is the eldest of this brood, and he is in command of the Frey forces at Winterfell. Stannis refers to him as 'Ser Stupid'. Let's put our money on him getting killed by Stannis the Mannis. Many of these Freys are at Darry with Gatehouse Ami, another member of this group, and may also be a home for fleeing Freys, but it is hard to tell. If Lady Stoneheart is able to infiltrate Darry as she has Riverrun, she cross many Freys off her list, but the ravaged lands of Darry could be facing winter related problems instead. Others, like with many Freys, are scattered across Westeros (and some in Essos) as squires, pages, septons, etc. The only other one of note is Fat Walda, the wife of Roose Bolton, who may very well be at risk of Ramsay.

Lame Lothar Frey

Aaaaaand we're back to a major player. Lothar Frey is the Steward of the Twins, and while he is far far down the line, if the line gets thrown out the window then he is a man who is very likely to win it all. Lothar is the twelfth son of Lord Walder, born to Alyssa Blackwood. Despite being son number 12, keep in mind that sons 1, 3, 4, 7, 9, and 10 are dead, son 2 seems to be doomed to die at Riverrun, son 6 is at risk of Stannis, and son 5 is a septon. This leaves sons 8 and 11 left (not to mention the progeny of the other sons), and son 8 has no children. Frankly, House Frey would have to increase GRRM's body count by half for Lothar to take the title of Lord of the Crossing by lineage, so I somewhat doubt that's how it will happen as there are so many descendents scattered about.
Luckily for Lothar, he doesn't need to depend on lineage. Lothar is described as intelligent, cunning, and well spoken, and is clearly trusted and liked enough by Lord Walder to have been made steward, to have been allowed to lead the negotiations with Robb at Riverrun regarding Edmure's wedding, and planning most of the details of the Red Wedding with Lord Roose Bolton (it being Lothar's idea to use the song "The Rains of Castamere" as the signal). Merrett Frey describes him as being particularly dangerous, and judging by his character, it's in a wholeheartedly different manner of dangerous than Black Walder.

The Rest Of Them

Most of the rest of the Freys are rather decent people, or simply irrelevant, aside from Big Walder, who is at Winterfell and may also fall victim to Stannis Justice. Lothar's full blooded siblings are minor. Lord Walder's living children off his next wife, Bethany Rosby, are Perwyn Frey (who held serious Stark sympathies), a maester at Longbow Hall, Olyvar Frey (Robb's squire), and Roslin, Edmure's loving wife. Personally, I think it'd be funny for Edmure and Roslin to wind up as heirs, but it's both horribly unlikely and just flat out not gonna happen. The children of Lord Walder's next wife, Annara Farring, could possibly also be Black Walder's, but it's hard to tell, and likely won't as none of them are, as of yet, important.
The only other Frey of note isn't technically a Frey, but is Bastard Walder. Bastard Walder obviously has a very very long road ahead if he seeks to take the Twins as, even if legitimized, he is behind all other trueborn descendents of Lord Walder. And there's a lot of them. However, Bastard Walder is of note because, despite his low ranking in inheritance, he is regarded as rather competent and a ferocious fighter. His reputation as a warrior has earned him several responsibilities among the house, and odds are he will not be a player for the seat but instead may wind up as an ally of somebody who is. Wedding his daughter to a male heir is the closest he'll get. He fiercely defends Edwyn in the feud at Riverrun between the Freys and the other lords, though this could be him defending the family (as well as a likely heir to the Twins) more than particular loyalty to Edwyn. He is also found with Lothar on two occasions, the first being when Lothar treats with Robb at Riverrun (he leads Lothar's guard) and the second being when he and Lothar welcome Robb to the Twins for the wedding. Again, this could simply be Bastard Walder obeying orders rather than an allegiance to Lothar, but the seeds are there if this goes forward.

The Verdict

Ultimately, due to interference from Lady Stoneheart or Stannis Baratheon, the likely remaining major players among the Freys are Edwyn, Black Walder, and Lothar. The rest have either not been made major characters, or are holed up in Darry. Edwyn has the advantage of being the next in line, and when Lord Walder dies will be able to immediately remove his rivals (or as stated at the beginning, name them the architects of the Red Wedding and have them killed or Walled). However, this also puts a major target on his back, particularly by Black Walder. Black Walder, in turn, merely needs to eliminate Edwyn, name First Walda illegitimate, and the Twins are his, however his reputation puts a target on his back. Lothar, while the cleverest of the bunch, likely has been working up enough support to make a play for the Twins when Lord Walder dies to circumvent the line of succession, however his reputation for his cunning and as a rival may make him an inconvenient relative for Edwyn or Black Walder to have around, and his position as architect of the Red Wedding will be justification for his slaughter.
These are their strategies:
Edwyn merely needs to survive until Lord Walder dies, and from there he can be rid of Black Walder, Lothar, or any other rivals or inconvenient relatives he believes he has.
Black Walder needs to get rid of Edwyn before Lord Walder dies, or at least before Edwyn can take Black Walder out of the picture, and then expose Walda as illegitimate to give himself the seat, after which he can toss out or turn in any inconvenient or unwanted relations.
Lothar has a trickier path. He needs to survive the first battle between Edwyn and Black Walder without being tossed out or hung, and then turn them and perhaps some other sons of Lord Frey in as the plotters of the Red Wedding to be hung or sent to the Wall to clear the line of succession using whatever support he's mustered to surpass the authority of Black Walder and Edwyn. Off the top of my head, I think his best option is (if he can't take the seat himself) clear things so that he can take the position of Lord Protector of the Twins over a young male Frey, and then wed one of his four daughters to that Frey. I also put my money on Lothar being the one who wins over Bastard Walder in the end due to Lothar being far more intelligent than his grand nephews.
Ultimately, I don't think the line of succession will be tossed out the window too horribly, and even if Lothar takes the Twins, he may very well lose them if the North marches South again, but frankly, I'm putting my bet on Black Walder besting Edwyn, but Lothar sweeping in on Black Walder.
You want the Freys to face justice? Well here it is. The Freys that took part in the Red Wedding are either in Riverrun, where the BWB will come knocking; in Darry, where winter could end them (as well as a Darry-Frey feud as indicated by the Elder Brother); in the North, where those still not baked into pies face the wrath of Stannis; and the rest will be casualties in the threeway war between Lothar, Edwyn, and Black Walder. Or, worse, they'll be forced out from the Twins into the hands of the BWB to the South or the Reeds in the North. This will leave a very very weak House Frey standing if/when Stannis marches south after taking back the north.
EDIT Bastard Walder Rivers added in by suggestion as he stands to be a valuable piece for our three contenders to fight for.
submitted by DanLiberta to asoiaf [link] [comments]

A Song of Ice and Squires

One of my favourite things from Knight of the Seven Kingdoms was how quickly the bond formed between Dunk and Egg, and how strong it was. As I make my way through the series again, I’m noticing more and more how devoted squires are to their “knights” (in quotations because in most cases they’re not actually knights). Something I’ve noticed that’s different than the D&E stories though, is that in the ASOIAF series, the knights (I’m not going to put it in quotes every time, just work with me here) are quite frequently dying, or are in mortal peril, or are about to be in mortal peril if things in TWOW go as a lot of us here expect. The unique thing here is that in these cases, the squires all seem to be in a position to save or at the very least avenge their masters (not that Egg didn’t play a part in bailing Dunk out a few times). At first I just thought it made for a neat possibility in a couple storylines, but when I started digging into it, I realized we’re looking at a LOT of incidences of this. So naturally...I wrote about it on reddit.
To keep this from being too boring of an essay, I’ll include my bonus tinfoil speculation as to what I hope the future might hold for these squires :)
Pod, Brienne and Tyrion
His squire, a boy with the unfortunate name of Podrick Payne, swallowed whatever he had been about to say. ... At the moment, he did not have the patience to try and coax a thought out of the lad, whom he suspected had been inflicted on him as a cruel jape.
Tyrion doesn’t mistreat Pod, although he does bust his chops a lot (Pod’s an easy target).
"Summon Bronn, and then run down to the stables and have two horses saddled. "The squire's eyes were cloudy with sleep. "Horses." "Those big brown animals that love apples, I'm sure you've seen them. Four legs and a tail. But Bronn first."
When push comes to shove in the Battle of the Blackwater, Pod is right by his side and refuses to leave.
"Wedge," Tyrion commanded as his men streamed out of the sally port. They formed up in spearhead, with him at the point...On the left, Tyrion was surprised to see Podrick Payne, a sword in his hand. "You're too young," he said at once. "Go back." "I'm your squire, my lord."
More importantly, when Tyrion finds himself in mortal peril, his squire saves the day.
Ser Mandon put the point of his sword to the hollow of his throat and curled both hands around the hilt. And suddenly he lurched to the left, staggering into the rail. Wood split, and Ser Mandon Moore vanished with a shout and a splash. ... "Be still, my lord, you're hurt bad." A boy's voice, that makes no sense, thought Tyrion. It sounded almost like Pod.
And my favourite thing about Pod, when his master goes missing, he takes it upon himself to find him again. One of the most universally despised people in the Seven Kingdoms, and Pod is completely devoted to him.
His face twisted in sudden anguish. "I'm his squire," he repeated, as the rain ran down his face, "but he left me."
Pod’s such a good kid he turns around and is a solid squire for Brienne as well, while continuing to look for Tyrion. I’d like to say Pod is in a position to save Brienne, but last we hear of him he’s just about to hang from a noose. Long term I think it would be deliciously ironic if at some point Tyrion finally gets his tongue cut out (seriously there’s too much foreshadowing for it not to happen) and his mumbling squire who speaks to people’s feet will end up having to be his voice as he clears he his name of the many accusations against him (except patricide, he definitely did that).
Wex and Theon
Taking him as squire had been part of the price Theon had paid for his horse.
Wex provides a couple of the funnier moments of the series when he watches in silent horror as Theon tries to seduce Asha, and ends up receiving a punishment familiar to Kot7K fans:
Wex was smirking at him. He gave the boy a clout on the ear. "That's for enjoying this so much." And another, harder. "And that's for not warning me. Next time, grow a tongue."
And when Theon has his dream about all the dead Winterfell residents:
Theon woke with a scream, startling Wex so badly that the boy ran naked from the room.
As one of the worst characters in the history of the written word, Theon is surprisingly decent to Wex, and Wex is a good squire to him. Always quick to follow orders and not screwing them up. Most importantly, Wex saves Theon from the most cringeworthy moment in ACoK:
I took this castle and I mean to hold it, to live or die as Prince of Winterfell. But I will not command any man to die with me. If you leave now, before Ser Rodrik's main force is upon us, there's still a chance you may win free." He unsheathed his longsword and drew a line in the dirt. "Those who would stay and fight, step forward." No one spoke. The men stood in their mail and fur and boiled leather, as still as if they were made of stone. A few exchanged looks. Urzen shuffled his feet. Dykk Harlaw hawked and spat. A finger of wind ruffled Endehar's long fair hair. Theon felt as though he were drowning. Why am I surprised? he thought bleakly. His father had forsaken him, his uncles, his sister, even that wretched creature Reek. Why should his men prove any more loyal? There was nothing to say, nothing to do. He could only stand there beneath the great grey walls and the hard white sky, sword in hand, waiting, waiting . . . Wex was the first to cross the line. Three quick steps and he stood at Theon's side, slouching.
Boosh! 15 other guys come forward once the squire shames them.
After Ramsay leads the Dreadfort guys in and slaughters everyone, we don’t know much. I started a separate thread to try and figure out what might be the reason behind Wex deciding to follow Osha and Rickon, but never revealing himself to them. Because of the nature of this essay, I obviously think Wex’s endgame is to try and reunite with Theon. To that end, maybe when he heard Maester Luwin suggest they try going to White Harbor or Last Hearth, he assumed these places would rally around the Stark boys, and then go after the Dreadfort, “rescuing” Theon.
For now I like to think he and Robett Glover are up to no good organizing a Northern Rebellion to take down the Boltons and free Theonfreehimtobeexecuted
Ned Dayne and Beric Dondarrion
"You have a House?" That was stupid; he was a squire, of course he had a House. "Who are you?" "My lady?" Ned looked embarrassed. "I'm Edric Dayne, the . . . the Lord of Starfall."
Ned Dayne is one of my favourite characters, he’s so stinking adorable.
"When I wear my helm, the rain beats against the steel and gives me headaches," he complained. "But when I take it off, my hair gets soaked and sticks to my face and in my mouth."
There’s not a ton of material here to work with, but I still wanted to touch on this pair. We get a taste of that squire devotion that I’m talking about when we hear about 12 year old Ned protecting Beric during the massacre that was Gregor’s ambush at the Mummer’s Ford:
"I was at the Mummer's Ford. When Lord Beric fell into the river, I dragged him up onto the bank so he wouldn't drown and stood over him with my sword. I never had to fight, though. He had a broken lance sticking out of him, so no one bothered us.
Obviously we won’t see Ned and Lord Beric together again, but we definitely haven’t seen the last of Ned. More importantly, if the pattern I’m trying to identify here holds true, we’ll find a Ned Dayne, with the might of Starfall at his disposal, who lives and dies by the values he learned from his master who was obviously a very skilled leader of men (if not terribly skilled in one on one combat), exceedingly loyal, and devoted to justice.
"Justice." Thoros smiled wanly. "I remember justice. It had a pleasant taste. Justice was what we were about when Beric led us, or so we told ourselves. We were king's men, knights, and heroes . . .
Obviously there’s Sword of the Morning hype here, but beyond that, maybe we’ll see him gather an army and continue the original mission to dispense justice they were sent on in the name of their king:
I charge you to ride to the westlands with all haste, to cross the Red Fork of the Trident under the king's flag, and there bring the king's justice to the false knight Gregor Clegane, and to all those who shared in his crimes. I denounce him, and attaint him, and strip him of all rank and titles, of all lands and incomes and holdings, and do sentence him to death.
Bonus thought: I bet the Prince of Dorne, who’s spent the last 15 years trying to prove that Tywin Lannister gave the order to his mad dogs to kill his sister, would be very interested to hear the lost Lord of Starfall’s first hand accounts of the atrocities Tywin’s mad dogs committed in the Riverlands. What would he do with that info now that Tywin’s dead? Not sure. Accepting ideas.
Olyvar Frey and Robb Stark
Olyvar was as loyal a squire as any king could want. He asked to stay with me, but Ser Ryman took him with the rest.
We don’t really get to see it first hand, but I really like the dynamic between Olyvar and King Robb. I think it is very noteworthy that there is a Frey who someone actually likes having around. In fact Robb wants him back:
"I'd hoped to ask Olyvar to squire for me when we march north," said Robb, "but I do not see him here. Would he be at the other feast?" "Olyvar?" Ser Ryman shook his head. "No. Not Olyvar. Gone . . . gone from the castles. Duty."
Fuck you Ryman! I don’t believe him at all. Personally I think Olyvar is in the dungeons at the Twins. I don’t think they could have kept him quiet any other way (no I don’t believe he’s the Rosby ward). His brother Perwyn is a similarly good dude who was “away” from the Red Wedding, could they have just locked him up too? Since we know Perwyn is at the Siege of Riverrun in AFFC, maybe Olyvar has been let out? If so I’m sure he’s disgusted with his family name and most likely still loyal to the king he was so devoted to. What could his next move be? I guess it would be too much to hope he bumps into the Blackfish somewhere.
Ser Barristan and his squires
Tumco Lho. Black as maester's ink he was, but fast and strong, the best natural swordsman Selmy had seen since Jaime Lannister.
The Lash. Ser Barristan did not approve of his fighting style, but there was no doubting his skills. Larraq had years of work ahead of him before he mastered proper knightly weapons, sword and lance and mace, but he was deadly with his whip and trident. The old knight had warned him that the whip would be useless against an armored foe … until he saw how Larraq used it, snapping it around the legs of his opponents to yank them off their feet. No knight as yet, but a fierce fighter.
Larraq and Tumco were his best. After them the Lhazarene, the one the other boys called Red Lamb, though as yet that one was all ferocity and no technique.
I’ve seen a lot of speculation that Ser Barristan will die in the upcoming Battle of Mereen; either from telling Victarion he can’t have a dragon, or from the pit fighters who work for Harzoo Hizdahr turning on him, or just from general battle danger. I like to think these guys will have Barristan’s back.
Either way, I think we can all agree we need to see Tumco Lho in action like right fucking now.
Josmyn Peckledon and Jaime
"Peck was a hero on the Blackwater," Jaime said. "He slew two knights and captured two more."
Peck is a very good squire for Jaime, and Jaime treats him well. He even hooked him with Pretty Pia. An arrangement like that for a 15 year old pretty much guarantees him Peck’s undying loyalty.
Of late, Jaime oft went to sleep to the sound of them fucking in a corner of the tent.
To me this means one thing: If (when) Brienne shows up in TWOW and lures Jaime off to face justice at the hands of Lady Stoneheart, Peck will be following, and then go fucking beastmode on everyone.
a downy-cheeked squire named Josmyn Peckledon, who had killed two knights, wounded a third, and captured two more, though he could not have been more than fourteen.
Satin and Jon Snow
He was pretty as a girl with his dark eyes, soft skin, and raven's ringlets.
I recently re-read the chapters in ASOS where Jon and Satin team up to defend Castle Black and the Wall, and you can see a bond forming. Satin starts out terrified and is a whole new person by the end. He’s sort of like Jon’s second (and more successful) reclamation project (after Sam), and we’ve seen the kind of devotion he inspired in Sam.
He's quick to learn and very clever. The other recruits started out despising him, but he won them over and made friends of them all. He's fearless in a fight and can even read and write after a fashion.
Whatever Satin may have done in Oldtown, he is our brother now, and he will be my squire.
I was going over the events leading up to For The Watch and there seems to be an unfortunate lack of information on Satin’s whereabouts at the time. Jon sends him to escort Clydas back to his rooms after delivering the Pink Letter and that’s the last we hear of him. Then he talks to Tormund for two hours, then they have the big meeting in the Shieldhall, the Wun Wun smashes Ser Patrek and Jon gets stabbed. There’s no mention of Jon seeing Satin in the Shieldhall, so maybe he was just tidying up Jon’s chambers or something? I hope in the aftermath of the stabbing, Satin is able to pull together whatever NW members weren’t part of FTW and keep them from getting slaughtered in what I assume is an impending Tormund Giantsbane led wildling free for fall. That’s kind of all you can hope for at this point I guess?
So yeah, that’s all I’ve got, hope you enjoyed the read! For discussion’s sake, here’s a couple other squires that might be interesting if anyone has any theories on them:
  • Ethan Glover and Brandon Stark
  • Devan Seaworth and Stannis
  • Damon Sand and Oberyn
  • Dalbridge and Jaehaerys?
edit: Full disclosure: I just learned I wasn't the first one to come up with this name :(
submitted by moondoggle to pureasoiaf [link] [comments]

[WP] The Fountain of Youth doesn't grant permanent youth or immortality, it merely resets your body's age to 21. You discover this Fountain in an unlikely place.

[WP] The Fountain of Youth doesn't grant permanent youth or immortality, it merely resets your body's age to 21. You discover this Fountain in an unlikely place. by LadyAlisande in WritingPrompts
Turning off 19 North in Clearwater, Florida at the Countryside Blvd exit, I merged, got in the left lane and took the first left into the Westfield parking lot. Entering through the first door I found, I began to wander around the halls looking for signs of something off. This is where so many had disappeared from, and where so many hadn't been spotted again. Sometimes their credit cards would be found, having been used, but it was always some punk kids on camera, and there was never a hit on their facial recognition. The only common thread was bad fashion sense.
It looked pretty normal, but it was 10 AM on a weekday, and...wait a minute I didn't see THEM. Every flipping mall in America has them at 10 AM, yet where were they? I wandered around and around for four hours, looking for the slightest thing out of place. I went down to the food area, grabbed a bite from Red Robin. Burger ordered, I began to look around. This place was off a bit as well. There are always a bunch of geezers hanging out in there every other time I went to one, but here, there was just a bunch of twenty-somethings who didn't know how to dress.
SRRRRRAAATTTCH
The record player in my mind just was dragged off the tune. Sitting in there was a bunch of six twenty somethings who couldn't dress themselves to save their lives. I even recognized two from the surveillance. Maybe it was the cargo shorts, the Hawaiian shirts, the speckled panama hats, but it was the feet that cinched it. High socks with the shorts and shoes with VELCRO. They might as well have hung a sign around their necks! They stayed awhile, then when they left, I followed. Well, I watched them, blazed around the whole mall. Just. Like. MALLWALKERS!
<--Here is the revised ending, I think it helped a lot
I'd called for backup on a S5k, that's a kidnapping to you civilians. The boys were there geared up in about 12 minutes. We all busted in, me and my Glock swiftly behind the four man SWAT team. The perps went down pretty quick. We found a treasure trove of all the missing things from our S5k's (our missing folks). We had the six from Red Robin, plus three more up in there. We didn't see anything else, no signs of bodies. We brought in the bloodhounds though and set them off on a shirt from Sid Ryman's house. He was one of the first to go missing. The dog bayed and howled. He ran all over the stock room where we were. Sid must have been in here for sure, but why would he be all over everything if he was a vic? Were they beating and torturing him all over? The hounds kept going around and around, but they came back to where the perps were cuffed. One guy in particular. He had blonde hair and a the bushy mustache. Allen called off the hounds to sit. "Alright kid, the dogs are on to you. We know you were involved. Where is Sid Ryman?" I pulled out his picture and shoved it in his face. He dropped his head in shame.
The guy next to him on the left looked to be a little wiser. "Tell 'em.... Tell 'em Sid.....". "No..." I said, "tell me ABOUT Sid...Where is he? What did you do to that old timer?" He finally looked up at me. "He's not missing. He's perfectly safe and sound. I AM Sid Ryman. Check my prints, check my DNA, do what you have to do." "HA!" I laughed, "HA HA HA. that's a funny one, jack ass. Sid Ryman is 72 years old, and you're what?....Twenty at the oldest?"
"Twenty-one" he replied. "As are we all..." the perp to the left said. "Suuurrrrre, thing. I guess you all are in the same fraternity or something? What a load of crap." The man to the left nodded. "A fraternity, yes, that's a good word for it. I'm Cecil Evans. You'll likely find me on your missing roster too..." "Ahhh, this is getting great, I better mirandize you assholes before you skate out of court on a lame ass technicality with all of these truth bombs. We can add stolen identities to the mix...." "Look", replied "Cecil", "you've got nine senior citizens, and the nine of us. WE are those missing individuals. We found....we found the fountain of youth."
"HA, OH this gets better and better," I replied. "now, I'm getting the Herbalife Pyramid scheme pitch." I mocked at him, but he just sat there, looking at me as serious as could be. "Behind that locked door, is an older part of the mall," "Cecil" continued. "the old change fountain, to be exact....that, is The Fountain of Youth. Sid first found it eight months ago when his contracting crew was putting in a renovation to this part of the mall. He was looking for a pump room for it, but he couldn't find one. He took off his shoes, rolled up his pants, and waded out to see if it was in the upper portion of the fountain. No pump was found. But when he came back to put his socks on, the age spots on his legs were gone. His hands too. The crew started to yell at him, because this kid showed up out of nowhere and he was in a construction area, so he booked it. Why didn't they recognize him? Because he was 21 and not 72. The fountain works, just like that." "Sid" picked up the story. I ran out to my car and looked in the mirror. I didn't recognize myself. It took me a half hour to puzzle it all out. Somehow I'd turned young again. It had to be the fountain. The Fountain of Youth! I went home and pulled all the equity I could out of the corporate accounts. I bought the store front, and swore these other guys to secrecy. All or friends or in the service with me. I trust every one of them with my life...."
"Well, and a group bus down to the nut house as well", I teased. Let's get you loaded up, printed, and we can get some more investigating done to get closure for these families." We loaded 'em all up, a few rubber-neckers in the mall caught it all on the their phones and sure enough, it was on the news that night. We had the nine perps in holding and waited for the prints to run. And run they did, every single print came back matching those of the nine missing men. Clearly, now, we're in twilight zone territory. I take Steve from SWAT down with me to the mall. The whole store is taped off, but we've got keys now and even the rent-a-cops won't cross the tape if they ever want a chance to get on the force. We let ourselves in, and go to the back. Now, Steve, I've known since the Academy. We both did the beat for awhile, then eventually I to detective, and he being the adrenaline junkie, ended up in SWAT. We opened the door to the back room, then the locked room beyond. It was exactly as described earlier that day. "Look," I said "this is the stupidest thing ever, but we're gonna test this thing out, just so we can scratch the stupidest idea ever off the possibilities. Flip to see who goes in?" "Nah," said Steve...."I got it. It is just frickin' water".
He goes over to the edge and takes off his shoes and socks, rolls his pants up, then swipes his hand through, just to make sure it isn't corrosive acid, which I'd imagine we'd have smelled. He twists around and steps in. He walks all the way to the center, puts his hand in the center falls, then walks all the way around. I'm staring. "See? Nothing to it..." he says. I'm still staring. "You OK Bill?..." then he stops. He recognizes his voice has changed, just like his appearance has changed. Steve is 21 years old. Fresh as the first day of the Academy. I'd bet my life on it. From there, it is a blur of action. Deciding what to do about this, releasing the guys in holding because there was no crime committed, and finally getting our own little clique sealed in a bubble of secrecy. I can still hear hear the squishes of Steve's wet feet as we lock up and secure the front of Forever21.
What happened after was buried. All charges dropped, and EVERY cop on that take-down quit the force over the next month to become a mall walker.
Second Ending Original Post
Original Ending They finally stopped and went into a clothing store, went straight to the back, then through the curtain marked "employees only". I went back outside the store and called for backup. I spoke quietly into my phone, 10-94 -request for backup-, S5K -kidnapping- Westfield Mall, inside Forever 21 store.
The raid made the local news because so many people filmed it on their cell cameras. >!What happened after was buried. All charges dropped, and EVERY cop on that take-down quit the force over the next month to become a mall walker.] Original Post
<--This was the original ending, but based on the comments made, I decided to go back, and was much happier I did. It was a little dicey to try to reveal what was found inside, but I think it was a lot better...
submitted by Enkid_ to Enkid_ [link] [comments]

How Many People Win At Betting? 2016 North America Cup night highlights -- Betting Line ... The EASIEST way to make money from sports betting!!!!!!! HEYBRIDGE SWIFTS 0 - 8 COLCHESTER UNITED: 15/07/2014 Sam Hunt and Charles Kelley Cover '90s Country Music at ...

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How Many People Win At Betting?

Race footage and (exclusive interviews) from the 2016 North America Cup night on June 18, 2016, at Mohawk Racetrack. North America Cup -- Betting Line (drive... This is part one of a two-part video where American Casino Guide author, Steve Bourie, interviews Blair Rodman for details on how to make sports bets and how... Betting Sports is the home of sports betting online. We have videos of beautiful women predicting the outcomes of all major sporting events. Go to bettingspo... I surveyed hundreds of people to ask them about their betting habits. I asked how often they bet, how much they thought they won, which age groups and genders were most likely to believe they were ... 3/1 3/5: Betting Part 1 - Duration: 13:49. Two Wayyo 931 views. 13:49. The All Bonus Bet Dice Setting 2V Set - Duration: 23:47. MrCoffeeDrink3r 370 views. 23:47. This is the Real Deal folks.

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