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Roland Garros Men's & Women's Round of 16 Writeup

A lot of people are asking for gambling advice. Mine would be don’t talk about mythical french dragons. After playing fast and loose with the dark arts, a pipe burst in my basement yesterday and I then found out that the shutoff valves had rusted out. Fun fact : flex tape makes you feel very optimistic when you’re stretching it over a leak but it doesn’t work, and just leaves you with new and creative angles for the leaks. I spent a lot of tiempo mopping my basement and setting things up for the plumbers, so I did miss a bit more of some matches than I’d really want to, which may help since I absolutely ate it on some of the round 3 matches.
Djokovic Khachanov : In an interview this week, Djokovic said, “My head is a perfect oval.” He was right, and it was on display against Galan. The first set was not only perfect tennis but entertaining. Novak (we’re on a first name basis) plays the kind of skillful game when he’s in control that is really enjoyable to watch. Time and time again he’s playing pingpong while other people are stuck covering a tennis court. The match tightened up in the second and third sets with Galan getting deep in a few games, but this was mostly a precursor to Djokovic’s first real test.
I had overlooked Khachanov in this draw because I felt he’d lose to Garin, but he played some great tennis today and his power and serving mean that while he may not have the best chance to win, he’ll certainly have an exciting affair with Djokovic. Garin withdrew from his doubles match a day or so ago and complained of dizziness. The physician was asking him how many fingers he was holding up and while he played pretty solid today, he had a sort of glazed look in his eyes throughout. After splitting sets I rather thought Garin would pull away. While Khachanov boasts a big offense, Garin’s speed makes it look like Khach has few options to score. Garin is just “there” for every shot, but he put a number of balls into the net with his forehand that he usually doesn’t.
Khachanov’s best chance in this match is to reign in the offense a bit. Djokovic thrives when his opponents make errors but sometimes gets frustrated when they make him work. The benevolent racquet applauding dropshot hitting Djokovic wins in style. The grumpy laugh at the sky shake his head smash a racquet Djokovic occasionally drops a set. It’s a testament to how good he is that he’s playing Khachanov and the discussion is “what can Karen do to steal a set”. Djokovic in 3, but this is the first chance for him to really show his level.
Carreño Busta Altmaier : Pablo, or Wobblo (as he’s known by rival trapeze crews) gave RBA a very long day. There were times when RBA took the lead but never for long. Carreno’s power was the big factor here and he hit a number of forehand winners. The inside in forehand he’s hitting is really deceptive and since inside-out is his usual pattern it works doubly well. I’m not sure patterns will be so ingrained in his next opponent as they are in RBA though. Altmaier is the story of the men’s side thus far having not dropped a single set through three rounds that continue to get more and more impressive. He plays very solid, hits hard, and his serving is surprisingly consistent even though it doesn’t seem like the biggest weapon. Berretini, though, refused to play more than a few shots per rally in this one. The first ball he could swing at he hit for winners. The ones he couldn’t drive he went for bailout dropshots. It was difficult watching him be so impatient to win rallies when they’re really nothing wrong with his defense or baseline game. Even in a straight set loss he had multiple looks at getting the lead in this match but there were just too many errors, and Altmaier playing at such a fast pace led to Berretini never really getting out of his rush.
After beating Struff and Berretini, it’s pretty clear that Altmaier will be a threat in this match. The last player to take a set off the hardworking German was Ruben Bemelmans in qualifying, and that result is half a puzzle now considering his consistency. I’m struggle to decide what to expect here. It’s another in a stream of these brand new matchups, which is great for the tour but difficult for anyone “trying” to make predictions. A good point to make here is that this is a reason “touts” and “prediction services” fail. By virtue of always trying to write a story or offer a possible outcome, you overextend beyond what your knowledge is. You come up with defendable positions rather than honest advice. It’s easy to write something convincing about a sporting event. All day long we’re thinking about potential futures in our head that will never come to be. Am I having a moment? Maybe. Perhaps it’s because I’m watching Collins bottle every volley or overhand she earns at the end of any point she’s winning. I learned about the term bottling this week. I’m gonna use it.
PCB should win this. Altmaier has benefitted greatly thus far from the errors of his opponents. PCB made very few of these in his match with RBA, just had a great run at the USO, and is the steadier player. It may take a while, since Altmaier is in such excellent form, but I still lean Wobblo, and maintain that that wire in the 2005 Southern Spain Trapeze Championships wasn’t regulation. PCB in 4.
Fucsovics Rublev : Are there no more lefty clay-courters left for Fucsovics to play? After disposing of ARV and Monteiro without much trouble, Fucovics magical victory against Medvedev is a distant memory. Time for another? Rublev beat Anderson pretty easily, and the bigman’s power during rallies was not much use against Rublev’s ballstriking. The matchup here is Rublev’s offense vs Fucsovics shot tolerance. The big Hungarian, who as we all know is from Nyíregyháza, is probably in the best shape of anyone on tour not named Nadal. He utilizes his speed and strength to really make the baseline small for opponents, and his precision game is something he keeps going with a reserved manner. He’ll never give away a match, and this is a good thing to have in his pocket since Rublev has a history of frustrations and errors. That history though, has not been present since the restart of the tour.
Rublev has been smoking the ball starting in Hamburg and his returning has been half clean winners and half solid returns. There is a good chance he will get into a number of Fucs’ service games and if you’ve ever had a wild squirrel with orange hair inside a duffel bag this is what it’s like to have Rublev in your service games. Squirrel smuggling in 4. I mean Rublev.
Dimitrov Tsitsipas : Oh heckkkkkk yeah. This is really and truly a brilliant round of 16 on both sides. Dimitrov was fortunate to receive an injury withdrawal from Carballes Baena, but he didn’t really need it. The big Bulgarian (who only appears past the second round once a year when the moon is full) has been in rare form this week, winning the matches he’s supposed to win and overall playing very overwhelming and consistent ball. This is what the fans want. I fade these guys at times and discuss their issues with consistency, but I absolutely concede that I would forfeit money to see the talent on display that Grigor possesses. Omg Collins won. How do ya like that. Anyway Dimitrov and Tsitsipas probably have two of the most “similar” games on tour, but one of them does way more with it. Tsitsipas played an injured Bedene who had issues with his ankle, and eventually retired, but similar to Grigor he really didn’t need it. Tsitsipas shrugged off the USO defeat, was good in Hamburg, and has been great so far in this event. Dimitrov’s athleticism and form can keep this one close for a while, but it really seems like Tsitsipas has elevated to another level here, and a rematch with Rublev is incoming. Tsitsipas in 4.
Sonego Schwartzman : Lorenzo Sonego can get things off the top shelf in the supermarket for you. Sometimes you’ll just be eating lunch somewhere in the world and Lorenzo Sonego will just snatch one of ur fries. This dude is lanky goodness, and something about him makes me want to buy a car. Fritz and Sonego played a really good match, and it was a good example of how a player can play 1 bad game and lose in straight sets. Fritz didn’t do much wrong here, but Sonego was excellent on the forehand wing. In the pressure moments he found big shots, and since Fritz wins behind his forehand, this gave him a slight disadvantage throughout.
Diego was down early to Gombos, but the guy manufactures breaks of serve better than anybody on tour. Consistently him, Nadal, and Djokovic are the top 3 in service breaks on tour, plus, he never steals french fries. This matchup is closer than people will expect. Sonego is very comfortable on clay and is solid enough to hang with Diego for stretches. If he serves well, he’ll be able to threaten to win sets. Fritz and Sonego was a long match, but two straight sets victories against servers won’t have Sonego in any fatigue issues. Diego is probably the best player left in the draw who you know won’t win the tournament, but he has a tendency to fall behind early in sets and this could become an issue since Sonego hasn’t really been making errors so far. I don’t like the -700 pricetag, but Diego should be able to break down Sonego’s backhand over the course of the match. Schwartzman in 4-5.
Gaston Thiem : Several times I looked at Gaston and Wawrinka’s match and felt like Wawrinka was playing great but the match was being played at Gaston’s tempo. Wawrinka needs time to set up, and with pauses in the rallies he becomes very difficult to beat. Gaston kept the ball moving though and that lateral war is not something that favors Wawrinka. It shoudn’t hurt him though. What ended up happening to Wawrinka was he played Gaston into the perfect training partner for him, and once Gaston had a read on where Wawrinka was going it became half a waste of time for Wawrinka to be hitting so hard. Fatigue set in in the 5th set, and Gaston honestly was the smarter competitor in this one.
Thiem and Ruud seemed like a high quality affair, but that only lasted for a brief period. Thiem is starting to really pull away late in matches and the reserved composure he plays with early in them has thus far not been solved by any of his opponents. A healthy dose of slices from Steve Johnson sees him losing, but the same strategy from Thiem (largely since he has the other one-handed stroke) sees opponents trapped trying to manufacture angles that feed into Thiem’s best shot. His accuracy when he plays down the line is starting to get real scary, since it was largely a redline shot in 2018 and a 60-40 prospect in 2019. I would say the AO where he beat Nadal was the first time where his backhand down the line was just an automatic point, and really how will people defend that as these long stretches of wins make him more comfortable and more confident? The kid is a monster, and yes tennis he also has a big butt.
Gaston will present the same steady defending and pace to Thiem, but Thiem is a much fitter player than Wawrinka and has a lot more variety/consistency in his game. Thiem in 3.
Zverev Sinner : Here I go hating again. Zverev has become like Fritz for me. I recognize that I tend to devalue their ability and focus on their bad performances/errors, and this skews my judgement. Writing these articles is beneficial for noting leaks like that. In their 3rd round contest though, Zverev and Cecchinato switched roles. Zverev made his first fast start in quite some time (I’d somewhat discount the USO against Thiem because that was more about Thiem being awful to begin) and returned extremely well. He was ripping his forehand crosscourt which is something we haven’t seen from him except in some rare instances late in matches. What went on on the other side of the net though was pretty difficult to watch. Cecchinato was cheated in this match. Nobody informed him of the new ATP rule about the ball having to both clear the net AND land inside the court. He will be filing an appeal, as he avoided both of these things like the plague. Not only did he make a ton of errors, but he took a return position not deep enough to return, and not shallow enough to catch the ball at a decent height. This was the Cecchinato that didn’t win a match for an entire year on tour, and after his first two matches where he was brilliant it is relatively unexplainable why he played this way. Even in this terrible form he was serving for the second set, and the momentum looked to shift but again, he was unaware of the new rules.
Sinner needed two come from behind sets against Coria to win, but he has shown that he is able to consistently produce his offense give the chance, and really what he struggles with is his lateral movement. More so on the forehand wing, but when he’s drawn wide he makes a lot of errors. It’s a similar issue to Kyle Edmund, and it’s partially the extreme grip. If Zverev shows up the same as he did against Cecchinato, he should win this, but even in a terrible lopsided loss, Cecchinato still won 9 games. Sinner will be significantly better, and where Cecchinato couldn’t get an unreturned serve, Sinner has a very competent service motion and can earn easier returns. In the interest of not just picking against Zverev every time, I will point out that Sinner has had fatigue issues late in matches, and Zverev served very well in his previous match. I think there is a big Ferrer factor with Zverev as he has seemed to have a specific gameplan in a few of his matches the past few events. This should be a high octane affair and the victory likely goes to who minimizes their errors. Passive Zverev loses this. Good first serve percentage Zverev wins it. Personally, as a person, I am the sort of person who thinks Sinner is going to win, but not if it goes to 5 sets. Sinner in 4.
Korda Nadal : Korda was probably the surprise of the round for most bettors. Pedro Martinez had been rolling through this draw and has become a very productive player against the 5-150 range of the tour. Korda is very smooth and displays the type of comfort on a tennis court that lets you know he’ll be on tour for a long time. He serve-volleys extremely well, and his forehand is smooth. The trouble with predicting he’d beat Martinez, is Martinez is different from anyone he’d played. Beating Seppi is good, but Seppi is a guy who never really wins a round during the clay season. Beating Isner is great, but Isner’s movement on clay is abysmal and he’s been less than stellar the past season or so. Playing a claycourter who’s been at the top of his game, it’s tough to look and say “Korda’s got this.” Yet, he had it, breaking over and over, and earning a primetime slot against Nadal. Since he’s so early in his career, no result here will be demoralizing for Korda. There’s still that “getting on court with an idol” benefit for him, and though he likely can’t win a set, any service hold or rally won will be a confidence boost for him. All positives here, but Nadal at RG is just a constant drag on his opponents physical reserves. I expect Korda’s serving to falter as this progresses. Nadal in 3.
Halep Swiatek : Anisimova looked good on a few shots early against Halep, showing her easy power. Unfortunately, as soon as Halep moved her she earned an error. This was the same pattern of Halep moving Anisimova over and over, and so the scoreline looks devastating, but it’s really just one issue that Anisimova will have to work on. Her movement on clay needs to improve to challenge the top players. Swiatek and Bouchard was a highly anticipated contest since both had kinda found their games in the restart, but Swiatek was all over her from the start. I am a big fan of underdogs, and on a tour where matches are often decided by a few key points, taking things for granted when backing a favorite is usually costly, but Halep’s defeat of Swiatek here last year was comprehensive. Swiatek is a great player, and her commitment to offense can really get her through tight matches, but Halep’s defending is the sort that there aren’t just endless chances to pick the next shot. She counterpunches with depth and is adept at passing players at net even on the run. Like a tiny Andy Murray, she makes the court seem small, and is perfectly comfortable playing her own offense when the open court presents itself. Halep in 2.
Trevisan Bertens : When you see a baby smile, you smile. It is the same phenomenon with Martina Trevisan. I called her Marta in the last post, and I apologize. Martina smiles from the first to the last point, and it is absurdly refreshing to see someone visibly enjoying their time competing. Sakkari was in full control of their match early, as Trevisan is a generally defensive player, winning by outlasting her opponents and by baiting them into lateral coverage contests. Trevisan was broken serving for the 2nd set but never stopped fighting. She was down multiple times in the tiebreaker but never stopped fighting. Her use of the moonball was exceptional, and Sakkari really missed an opportunity by not moving in on these shots. You’ll make some errors, but giving up court position is almost always wrong. Moonballs are offensive opportunities, and your opponent isn’t hitting them because everything is A ok on the other side of the net. They’re in trouble, and are hoping to buy time. Sakkari seemed throughout this like she’d win. She was really the better player, but her backhand made errors, and as the match descended into constant patterns of attack she found less open court and more smiley lady returns. Trevisan gave me actual joy watching her win her last two matches, and watching her hit her forehand cross court the entire match, then down the line whenever Sakkari bailed out too find a forehand was really remarkable.
Bertens has become a confusing prospect to me, but after a quick dismissal of Siniakova it’s clear she’s not dealing with residual cramping issues from her match with Errani. Trevisan was able to outlast Sakkari, but Bertens presents a more well-rounded attack. I don’t write Trevisan off, but she’s the sort of player who can’t put distance between herself and her opponents. She doesn’t really serve aces, she doesn’t really possess big power, and while she has a great deal of body control in her defending, she does give her opponent the ball to hit. I lean towards Bertens in 2.
Svitolina Garcia : Simple victory for Svitolina against Alexandrova. She hasn’t lost in the last two weeks and Alexandrova’s movement/offense weren’t enough. Garcia was beaten handily in the first set, and I was getting drenched by water coming from the ceiling in the second and third. I can say honestly that beating Kontaveit makes no sense, beating Mertens makes no sense, and now the very low +145 line for Garcia against Svitolina who is great on clay and won the last tournament makes me think she’s in line for another victory, and again it won’t make sense. Garcia makes the kind of errors that professional tennis player don’t make. She seems very awkward at times on her backhand, winding up with her racquet in too close and pulling the ball wide. She struggled early to find the pace of the ball against Mertens and dragged a number of shots long. When she does have her timing though, she crushes the ball. It’s the kind of offense you need to be standing still to execute, but the ball gets through the court quickly, and she tends to go big on returns which can mean a lot late in matches in the WTA.
The puzzle for me in seeing Svitolina listed lower is compounded by seeing that Garcia beat her in their most recent meeting on clay in 2018. Svitolina’s speed and consistency in moving her opponent is the sort of equation that Garcia has consistently lost again. Sometimes though, you have to admit you might be wrong. I lean towards Svitolina ending Garcia’s run here, but I get a similar sense that I did when watching footage of Anderson/Lajovic after being unsure why Anderson would have an edge. I would avoid this one, and I’m still picking Svitolina, but there’s reason to believe Garcia’s run will continue. Svitolina in 2.
Podoroska Krejcikova : Podoroska would be the first qualifier to win a major. That’s how good she has looked throughout her first three rounds, and now she gets a very interesting test. Krejcikova has a slow looking big swing, but the power she lazily seems to generate has shut down her last opponents in the deciding set. It seems like she’s out of it, and in her match against Pironkova she was down a set and looked like she’d be broken and lose in two, but her backhand kept firing, and her forehand was heavy enough to break down Pironkova. Podoroska and Schmiedlova was highly anticipated but didn’t deliver. Schmiedlova’s win against Azarenka seems to have been more about Azarenka, and Podoroska’s offense was in control from start to finish. I haven’t really seen a more noticeable impact player come onto the tour in a while, and though Krejcikova can wear down her opponents, I expect Podoroska to expose her lapses in play where Strycova and Pironkova wore down. Podoroska in 2.
Jabeur Collins : Sabalenka has to be crushed after losing that match. She played exceptional and was only a few inches off on the shots she was missing. After rolling through the second set Jabeur seemed out of this contest, and Sabalenka threatened to break in the third a few times, but Jabeur served well in those pressure moments, serving that we haven’t really seen from her yet this event. The out-wide serve from the duece court was a big factor, and her forehand was crispy. I finished up the day by watching Collins and Muguruza, and it did not disappoint. Collins was the better player in the first set despite being way ahead of Mugu in the errors column. Late in the first set Muguruza had only made 1 forehand error and I had thought Collins solid play and aggressive drives would force Muguruza into errors and that’d be her path to victory. Not so. This was a contest of solid ballstriking throughout, and in the second set Collins missed her targets. She won rallies but lost points, spraying balls wide or long anytime she got a look at a break point. It was hard to watch, and it continued early in the third. She was broken immediately, had a few breakback points and squandered them, and endured one of the longest stretches of missing overheads and swinging volleys that I’ve ever seen. It was 2018 Djokovic level overhead troubles, and the worst part was she was playing excellent and could have been right in the match.
At 3-0 in the third it looked over, but Muguruza serving at 40-15 found a double fault. Then she found an error. Then she found some more double faults. It took a while because Collins was still really choking, but she broke for 3-1. Muguruza really lost her game from 3-1 on, and only notched one more game. Her serve had been excellent throughout, and just disappeared. Her defending had been excellent, but she misjudged balls and found the net. It was a really confusing loss for Muguruza, but the secondary story was how well Collins was hitting the ball. She really crushed her backhand today, and stepped in on every moonball offering Muguruza served up. I would say she hit her forehand inside out less than 10 times in the match, but it was a decent strategy as it kept her in a rhythm.
So can she beat Jabeur? Collins looked a ball off on all her serves today, and actually all her aces in the match were called as lets. If she finds the rhythm, she can run away with this match, as her backhand is so solid and her proclivity for hugging the baseline will challenge Jabeur’s movement. Her issues will be the same here as against Muguruza; when she loses range she tends to play a few games where she hits the ball a few inches too deep, it’s almost as if she needs to remember to control her swing, as I saw her make a visible adjustment in the third where she wasn’t taking such a huge followthrough. This will be a good opportunity for both of them, and both have just beaten an opponent that says that they are genuine title contenders. The names are disappearing from this draw and the players left might not always get these opportunities, but their level of play says they deserve them. Collins in 3
Ferro Kenin : Fiona Ferro was so stressful to watch today. I felt she’d have control against Tig, and I was right but it didn’t translate to a simple victory. Tig is simply a divine defender, and her slices were touted by the announcers as ineffective but they kept Ferro from ever developing any rhythm. Tig wears her heart on her sleeve, and she looks like you stole her baby bunny after she loses points, and screams deafeningly loud after she wins points. It all was a bit distracting from the match, and as the crowd got into it she got a bit more frustrated. After taking a few years off the tour to have one of those babies, Tig really has to be pleased with her restart, and while she lost a lopsided 3rd set, she should have won the tiebreaker, and definitely was the better player in the 2nd set. Tig’s problem in this one was that Ferro seemed to play her best tennis once she was down. Whether it was a break or a break point, Ferro locked down her game when she needed to and although Tig comes up with a lot of great offense when it seemed like she’d never attempt any, she lacks power and is largely just a defensive grinder. The backhand broke down for Tig in the 3rd set, and it was a shame but a great win for Ferro.
Kenin and Bara was a fun match for Bara while she was up 2-0, but from there it was literally all Kenin. Do you think Kenin walks to the store or to walk her dog the same as she does around the court? She’s a legit marcher. She doesn’t seem like the best claycourter, but the round prior she found her range in one set, and in this one she really was excellent. Her backhand is just no place to direct the ball, and she’s begun playing a dropshot down the line off it that pairs so well with her crosscourt offering. Add in a forehand that isn’t huge but has a lot of whip on it, and you have a very difficult ask for Bara. In previous matches Bara’s speed and defending had exposed her opponents, but here since Kenin wasn’t making errors, Bara had difficult scoring points. Her serve left her after she got down in the scoreline, and it was one way traffic.
Ferro and Kenin is a match I expected Kenin to be priced higher in. Oddsmakers have set it as a pickem and while Ferro was great in the third set she really struggled to beat Tig and Kenin’s defense is a similar level but with more power. Stylistically, Kenin’s offense will be easier for Ferro to deal with than it was for Bara, as Ferro is adept at net and has a solid backhand and forehand. The power is there, and she’s very comfortable on clay, but she made a bit too many errors today against Tig for me to see her hitting through Kenin for an entire match. Playing at home though, and given how open her offense will be playing someone who isn’t using so many slices, she’ll be a tough test. Against Rybakina Ferro was excellent, and didn’t make the errors that she did when Tig slowed the game down. I am starting to think Kenin could have a good chance to make the finals though, as her next two matches are ones she should win. Kenin in 3.
Kvitova Zhang : Kvitova really played a great match today. Her stretch forehand created angles over and over, and once she did her backhand power through the court was just unreal reliable. Fernandez was everywhere, and led 5-2 in the first, but Kvitova wore her down, and it wasn’t just power but movement as well. Kvitova has shown up for this event, and pulling victory from a match where she was not on her favorite surface and down early is a very good sign. Zhang was solid today, but I really felt Burel would be a better test for Kvitova. Burel is just plain great. She plays like she’s never had a coach and just understands tennis. She serves well, executes any shot from anywhere when it’s right, and though she seems like a small Lauren Davis type she crushes the ball. It was a tough loss as she seemed throughout the match like she’s cross the finish line, but Zhang basically locked down on defense, and hitting through someone on clay for an entire match is just a tough tough thing to do. Sometimes you play better but lose the match, and that was Burel today.
Kvitova played a better defender in Fernandez, and one with more offense also. Zhang has been playing great, but plays in predictable crosscourt patterns and Kvitova’s power does tend to earn her balls to hit. Barring a similar slow start as she had against Fernandez, Kvitova in 2.
Siegemund Badosa : Siegemund turned around her match against Martic in excellent fashion. She always notches some wins on clay but knee injuries really have kept her from deep runs in the past two seasons. This though is a career changing moment for her. She can beat Badosa Gibert. I don’t say that just because she’s playing so well, but also because even on paper this isn’t an upset for Siegemund. Both are playing very consistent ball and thriving against offensive talents because of it. Ostapenko hit a lot of very angry shots, but every time she loses it’s because of her movement and because of her errors. It’s one plan and that’s ok but the tour is full of defensive tests and that plan isn’t likely to net her any further titles. Badosa is just 20 years old through to her first round of 16 which is brilliant. Someone is going to get their first huge paycheck this event and there isn’t a lot to separate these two. Siegemund has played a lot of offensive talents thus far, and seems to have thrived on moving them as the matches progress. She’s very coherent and measured, but Badosa’s speed may be a major factor in negating that. Badosa also won their most recent meeting on clay last year in a third set. A year’s progress for a junior player can mean a world of difference, and I think the edge sits with her here. Badosa in 3.
PS The requests for possibly more betting advice haven’t fallen on deaf ears. The problem with listing out picks is what I referenced earlier : pick services have an end goal in mind of telling you a defendable story. There is a great deal more than selecting a few matches a day that goes into the process, and unfortunately unless you’re placing the same wagers while livebetting that I am, you’re getting different lines and different results over time. A lot of my decisions tend to reflect my individual status/risk preferences as I go as well, so it’s difficult to just present a comprehensive mirror for people to look at. I’m not saying no though, and I’ve been thinking more about how best to present content that will help ppl avoid losses and traps on the tour, as well as proffer some of the lessons that I learned along the way so that at a minimum, people can save time and skip those hurdles. For the French I’m just going to stick with the writeups, but I’m working on it and will definitely do something next season, and will likely post some generic content/analysis of how the tour’s format/rankings/surface changes lend themselves to some decent spots. Cheers. People say that in Europe.
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Myles Gaskin Post-Game Analysis: Looking Ahead

Last Thursday I wrote a post analyzing the Gaskin RBBC situation pre-game. I intended to write a post-game sooner but I got busy and so here we are now. So, let's get straight to it.
On Thursday night we saw Gaskin truly separate himself from the pack.
vs Jaguars Attempts Yards Avg TD
Myles Gaskin 22 66 3.0 0
Matt Breida 3 4 1.3 0
Jordan Howard 3 1 0.3 1
Other 8 67 N/A 1
Total 36 138 1.5 2
Receiving work:
vs Jaguars Targets Receptions Yards Avg TD
Myles Gaskin 5 5 29 5.8 0
Matt Breida 0 0 0 0 0
J. Howard 0 0 0 0 0
Total 5 5 29 N/A 0

These numbers reaffirm something many of us already now know. Myles Gaskin has, until proven otherwise, secured the lead role in the Dolphins backfield and it isn't close. Looking back on the previous two weeks, this trend was becoming apparent and is now solidified. Let's look at another interesting statistic.
Redzone Attempts:
Last 2 Weeks Redzone Attempts Goalline Attempt Yards TD Percentage
Myles Gaskin 2 0 11 0 16.7%
J. Howard 5 5 1 2 41.7%
Matt Breida 3 0 9 0 25%
Other 2 0 N/A 0 16.7%
Total 12 5 21 2 100.1%

vs Jaguars Redzone Attempts Goalline Attempt Yards TD Percentage
Myles Gaskin 9 0 18 0 69.2%
J. Howard 3 3 1 1 23.1%
Matt Breida 0 0 0 0 0%
Ryan Fitzmagic 1 0 1 1 7.7%
Total 13 3 20 2 100%

Looking at the data paints an interesting picture, many are under the impression that Jordan Howard will vulture away Gaskin TDs. While Howard certainly has vultured 3 TDS so far this season it is on a disgusting 8 attempts for 2 yards and 3 TDs line. Howard is almost exclusively used for goalline situations. Gaskin meanwhile has seen an encouraging uptick in RedZone usage, commanding an impressive 69% of touches against the Jaguars among rush attempts in the RZ. Gaskin is bound to get his, just don't hold your breath from 1-yd out.
Another encouraging area for Gaskin is his receiving work, to reiterate:
vs Jaguars Targets Receptions Yards Avg
Myles Gaskin 5 5 29 5.8
Gaskin continues to catch his targets at an astoundingly efficient rate. Gaskin is 4th in receiving yards with 91, T-3 in targets with 16, and 1st in receptions with 15 for the Dolphins team. Additionally, Gaskin commands a healthy 16.7% target share for the Dolphins and runs a route on 67% of pass plays run.
An interesting question to consider going forward is, how will OC Chan Gailey utilize Gaskin as the primary back as the season progresses? Looking back to Gailey's offenses to the Bills in 2010-2012 and the Jets 2015-2016 the running back position was utilized heavily in the passing game. For these statistics, I will combine and total the top two RBs each year during Gailey's tenure per team.
RB utilization:
RBs under Gailey Attempts Yards Targets Receptions Yards Receiving TD/Rushing TD
Bills 895 4386 286 210 1759 8/24
Jets 666 2918 218 165 1256 6/18
Total 1561 7304 504 375 3015 14/42
As evidenced here, backs in Gailey's offense are expected to be reliable pass-catchers and are targeted heavily. This lends itself to Gaskin's skillset as a smaller pass-catching back. A very interesting bit of information I gathered looking through these statistics is that Ryan Fitzpatrick was the starting QB in every single one of these years under Gailey. So a continuation of previous trends can be reasonably expected.
Last but not least, let's look into Gaskin's upcoming matchup with Seattle. As predicted last week, the Jaguars continued their efforts as a solid defensive front against the run. Allowing only 3.4 ypc on 29 attempts for 100 yards between the RBs. However, the Dolphins managed to get things done off of a couple of Minshew turnovers and an unimpressive pass defense. As suspected, Gaskin faced resistance on the ground but was able to make up for it through the air for PPR owners. Looking forward Gaskin faces an even tougher matchup on the ground against a formidable Seahawks run defense ranked 2nd in the league with 66.7 yards/game that only allowed 34 yards on 14 attempts for Elliot last week. However, we are once again looking to bet on Gaskin to produce through the air against a Seahawk's pass defense ranked dead last with 430 yards/game that allowed the Cowboys 472 yards through the air. The Seahawks also struggled to get to Dak through an ailing Cowboys' oline but managed to put a little pressure on Prescott.
Receiving stats by RBs last 3 weeks:
vs Targets Receptions Yards Avg TD
Falcons 10 7 11 1.6 0
Patriots 7 4 47 6.7 0
Cowboys 12 7 19 2.7 0
Total 29 18 77 N/A 0
Based on these statistics, the Seahawks allow a 62.1% completion rate to RBs. However, they do not seem to allow very much yardage after the fact. The Falcons failed to capitalize on their 7 receptions, Rex Burkhead for the Patriots managed to have a solid receiving day from a PPR standpoint, and finally, Elliot also appears to have failed to capitalize on his opportunities but achieved PPR worth due to his high number of receptions. I would like to point out that, after watching the entirety of the Cowboys' game, Elliot uncharacteristically dropped at least 3 easy passes from Dak that could've gone for solid gains and an additional 3 points.
Taking everything into consideration, this will be Gaskin's toughest matchup to date. Gaskin faces an ever tougher and better coached run defense. But, following the trend, Gaskin has opportunities against a weak Hawk pass defense. Look for Gaskin to get checkdown work against a soft Hawk's secondary and hope for more receiving work while tempering your expectations on the ground. If the Dolphins fall behind quickly against the overwhelming Hawks' offense a positive game script can boost Gaskin's PPR work. On a side note, I expect the Dolphins receivers and possibly Gesicki to have a great week against a weak secondary, while the battered Hawks' stars safety Jamal Adams and CB Quinton Dunbar deal with injuries that may keep them out this week.
Edit: Almost forgot, if the numbers don't speak to you, please listen to an endorsement from one of fantasyfootball's very own.
"Miami dolphin fan here and someone that watches Gaskin very closely, I also happen to work at SeaWorld... Miles is silky, SILKY, mahi-mahi, and a big BIG boy. Big ass boy. Swims hard as a man (SWIMS HARD), and the Fins are aware of this slick porpoise boy. They will feed him, feed him often, and hard, and he will squeak head off. Unbelievable."
- u/rybono
TL;DR - Gaskin secures Dolphins backfield while increasing RZ usage in a favorable Chan Gailey offense, but faces a tough test against the Seahawks.
Last Week's Analysis
Dolphins vs Jaguars Stats
Dolphins RB Stats
Dolphins RB Goaline Usage
Dolphins RB RZ Usage
Gaskin Receiving Percentage
Chan Gailey Jet's Offensive Breakdown
Chan Gailey Dolphin's Expectations
Chan Gailey Bill's Stats
Chan Gailey Jet's Stats
NFL Rushing Defense Rankings
NFL Receiving Defense Rankings
Seahawks vs Cowboys Stats
Seahawks vs Patriots Stats
Seahawks vs Falcons Stats
Elliot Dropped Passes
Seahawks Injuries
Seahawk's Injury Report
Gaskin Week 3 NextGen Attempts
submitted by WHATABURGER-Guru to fantasyfootball [link] [comments]

The truth about the dbrand Grip...

The truth about the dbrand Grip...
Grips. Let's talk about 'em.
If you've spent any amount of time on this subreddit, you've likely seen at least one post about a Grip case that has fallen apart. Most of you have seen several. We know this because we've seen every single one. We’d like to see less of them. Ideally, none.
Over the past 18 months, we’ve been on an odyssey to fix the underlying problem. What follows is a chronicle of that journey.
Our objectives in writing this post are three-fold. There will be a tl;dr version at the end of this post, summarizing each of the three:
  1. Offer an in-depth technical explanation as to why Grip cases fall apart.
  2. Outline the improvements we've made to the Grip case to mitigate and eventually solve the issue.
  3. Provide some much-needed context as to how widespread the issue truly is, and what our next steps are for affected Grip SKUs.
Since you're still here, you must be in it for the long haul. Assuming an average reading speed of 250 words per minute, this is going to take you nearly 24 minutes to get through. We'll try to make it the most informative 24 minutes of your life. Let's get started.


Why Do Grips Fall Apart?
Most phone cases are made out of a single material. The material itself varies from case to case, though the most common is Thermoplastic Polyurethane (TPU). The Grip case, as a point of comparison, is made of two different materials: an elastomer and a polycarbonate.
The word elastomer is a combination of the words elastic and polymer. That's because it describes polymers that have elastic properties - like the one that forms the outer rim of your Grip case. The elastomer that we use is responsible for two critical properties of the Grip case: impact protection and grip.
If you fell off of a rooftop, would you rather land on a hard plastic surface, or a rubber surface? If you value your life at all, you'd choose the rubber - its elastic properties would absorb much more force from the impact. Guess what rubber is? First one to answer "an elastomer" wins a prize!
Next, imagine you’re a pervert, gently running your finger across every surface of a No. 2 Pencil. Which part of the pencil do you think would provide the most resistance to the tracing of your finger? If you guessed "the eraser," congratulations: you possess a basic understanding of coefficients of friction. Erasers are made of rubber. Rubber has a high coefficient of friction because of its elastic properties.
The Grip case's elastomer isn't rubber - it's our own specially-formulated compound. It's still a useful comparison, as all elastomers share similar properties - provided they have the same degree of Shore Hardness.
One person reading this is asking: “Shore Hardness?” The next section is their fault.

A Beginner's Guide to Material Science
The Shore Hardness scale gauges the hardness of various elastomers. It can be measured with a device called a durometer. You probably don't have one.
  • Low Shore Hardness = softer, more malleable, less dense, more rubber-like.
  • High Shore Hardness = harder, less malleable, more dense, more plastic-like.
If you fell out of a building and landed on a rubber surface with a high Shore Hardness, injury or death would be much more likely.
If you used an eraser with a high Shore Hardness, you'd find it wouldn't actually do much erasing.
Now, what if you made a phone case out of an elastomer with a high Shore Hardness? It wouldn't offer much grip or impact protection.
The Grip's outer rim is made from an elastomer with a low Shore Hardness. As a result, the material is grippy and impact-resistant, but much more malleable and thus more likely to deform. That's why we bond the elastomer to a polycarbonate skeleton.
Polycarbonates don't require as much explanation as elastomers: they're a category of plastic. On your Grip case, the back plate is made of polycarbonate. The elastomer rim is bonded to the polycarbonate plate on all sides of the Grip, providing structural rigidity to the elastomer, fighting to keep it from deforming. At least, that's the idea. As we've all seen, it hasn't worked out that way.
Bonding two distinct materials together is much more complicated than gluing them together. Instead, we rely on a thermal bonding process. Basically, that means we heat both of our polymers to a degree which would turn you from “rare” to “well done” in moments. This heat melts the polymers, which we then inject at a pressure which would turn you from “solid” to “paste” even faster.
Once injected, these two materials get fused together along the seams. To further reinforce the bonds, we use a series of interlocking "teeth" to provide a greater surface area on which the bonding process can occur. Consider these teeth the mechanical bond, which exists to strengthen the thermal bond.

Pictured: Bonding mechanic between the elastomer and polycarbonate.
With that out of the way: why do Grips fall apart?
The elastomer rim around the edge of the Grip case is naturally inclined to deform and stretch. The bonding mechanisms we described above are designed to keep that from happening, but it often isn’t strong enough. As soon as the bond fails at any point, it's only a matter of time until a total structural failure occurs.


How Are We Stopping Grips From Falling Apart?
Philosophically, there are two approaches to take:
  1. We can investigate why, exactly, the bond between the elastomer and the polycarbonate is failing.
  2. We can tweak and iterate the thermal and mechanical bond - strengthening it to the point where it's statistically improbable that your case will fall apart.
We tried the first approach - it's the road to madness. The number of variables is irrationally large. What's the temperature like where you live? The altitude? The humidity? Do you bring your phone into environments that deviate from the ambient temperature of your location? Does your school or workplace have extremely dry air? Do you bring your phone into a sauna? What sort of soap do you wash your hands with? Do you have oily hands? What sort of food do you cook? Do you smoke? How hard do you press on the buttons? What's your angle of approach when you actuate a button? How big are your hands? How often do you take your phone out of the case? Do you remove it from the top, the bottom, the sides?
We could follow all of these roads, find out exactly which factors are causing the bond to fail, then implement preventative measures to keep it from happening - but that would take a decade. We don't have that long. Much like you, we want this fixed yesterday.
So, from the moment we received our first complaint about a Grip deforming around the buttons, we've been making structural, thermal, and mechanical improvements to the design and production process of the Grip case - some visible, some not. Every new phone release has brought a new iteration on the core Grip design, with each one reducing the failure rate, incrementally. We'll bring the receipts in the next chapter. For now, let's highlight the most noteworthy improvements.

The Most Noteworthy Improvements
The first signs of trouble were the buttons. Months before we'd received our first report of a Grip case de-bonding, we saw the first examples of buttons that had bent out of shape.

Pictured: Button deformation.
Why the buttons? Because you press down on them. The force from button actuation puts strain on the elastomer, causing displacement of the material in the surrounding area. Through a combination of time, repeated button actuations and the above-mentioned force, the case would permanently deform around the buttons. This concept is called the "compression set" of the elastomer - Google it.
The solution to this problem was two-fold:
  1. First, we increased the compression set of the elastomer. Essentially, we made it as dense as we could, without compromising on the elastic properties of the material.
  2. Second, we added relief slits surrounding the buttons - they're plainly visible on any newer Grip case model. These relief slits are an escape route for the force generated by button actuation. They also had the positive effect of making button actuation significantly more satisfying (read: clicky).

Pictured: Relief slits to improve button tactility and durability.
Another early issue, pre-dating the first reports of total de-bonding, was a deformation of the elastomer along the bottom of the case - where the charging port and speakers are.
Since we've covered the basics on how the interlock between the elastomer and the polycarbonate creates a bond, this is how the interlocking teeth along the top edge of the polycarbonate skeleton of the Grip used to look.

Pictured: First-gen interlocking teeth on the top of the Grip.
...and here's the bottom of that very same Grip case.

Pictured: First-gen interlocking teeth on the bottom of the Grip.
Notice anything? Around the charging port, there is absolutely nothing keeping the elastomer in place. No teeth, no structural reinforcements... it's no coincidence that an overwhelming majority of early Grip deformations happened along the bottom.
Since then, we’ve added a reinforced polycarbonate structure around the bottom of the Grip case. You'll see what that looks like in a bit.
So, why didn't the launch portfolio of Grip cases have mechanical interlocks or a polycarbonate support structure along the bottom?
The answer may or may not be complicated, depending on how much you know about plastic injection molding. We'll assume the worst and explain the concept of "undercut" to you with a ridiculous metaphor.

The Ridiculous Metaphor
Imagine you had a tube full of melted cheese. Next, imagine you emptied that entire tube into your mouth. Rather than swallowing the cheese, you decide to let it sit in your mouth and harden. Why are you doing this? We don't know. Let's just say you want a brick of cheese that's perfectly molded to the contours of your mouth - a very normal thing to want.
So, your mouth is completely filled with cheese. It hardens. You reach into your mouth to remove the brick of cheese. As you're removing it, you encounter a problem: your teeth are in the way. This wasn't a problem when you were putting the cheese into your mouth, but that was because the cheese was melted and could flow around your teeth. Now that the cheese has hardened, this is no longer the case.
In the world of plastic injection molding, this is an undercut. Our concern was that, by molding a structurally rigid piece of polycarbonate around the charging port and speaker holes, we'd find ourselves unable to remove the Grip Case from the mold once hardened. Imagine spending $30,000 on industrial tooling only to get a $30 phone case stuck inside of it.
Once we saw Grip cases deforming along the bottom cutouts, we knew we'd need to find a way to remove the cheese from your mouth without breaking your teeth. To make a long story short: we did it. The cheese is out of your mouth, and you get to keep your teeth. Congratulations! Now, keep reading.
On newer models of the Grip case, the result is a polycarbonate bridge extending around the bottom cutouts, adding both structural reinforcement and interlock mechanisms to promote mechanical bond, much like the ones which line the perimeter of the rest of the Grip case.

Pictured: Newest-gen structural reinforcement on the bottom of the Grip.
On the subject of structural reinforcements, this design revision was around the time we flanked the buttons with some fins, working in tandem with the heightened compression set and button relief slits, detailed above, to further guarantee that button actuation would have no impact on the overall durability of the Grip case.

Pictured: Lack of button fins on the first-gen Grip.

Pictured: Button fins on the newest-gen Grip.
As an aside: Unrelated to the de-bonding issues, we've also made a number of smaller improvements to the Grip case with each new iteration. For instance, we chamfered the front lip of the case to make edge-swiping more pleasant and reduce dust accumulation along the rim. Those raised parallelogram shapes along the sides of your Grip case that create its distinctive handfeel? We made those way bigger for a better in-hand experience. In short: product development is a complex and multifaceted process. Each new iteration of the Grip case is better than the one that came before, and that applies to more than just failure rates.
Speaking of failure rates: all of these improvements were in place by the time we launched iPhone 11-series Grip cases. The failure rate for these cases decreased exponentially... but didn't disappear entirely.

The Even More Ridiculous Metaphor
With these improvements, we achieved our desired outcome: the case was no longer deforming around the buttons or the charging port. Instead, the structure of the case began to fail literally anywhere else around the perimeter of the phone.
Think of it this way… you’re a roof carpenter. The greatest roof carpenter of all time. Like the son of God, but if he was a carpenter. Unfortunately, you’ve been paired with the Donald Trump of wall-builders.
You're tasked with building a house. You spend all of your time and energy perfecting your roofcraft. You've designed a roof that's so durable, it may as well have been made of Nokia 3310s. Nothing's getting through that bad boy.
The wall guy? Instead of building that wall he said Mexico would pay for, he's been tweeting about the miraculous medicinal properties of bleach while a plague kills hundreds of thousands of Americans.
The point here is that you can build the greatest roof of all time, but the walls need to be strong enough to match.
To strengthen the Grip case's metaphorical walls, we needed to re-design the inside of the Grip case from scratch. More specifically, the mechanical interlock between the springy elastomer and rigid polycarbonate skeleton. We took every tooth at the bonding point between the two materials and made them as large as we possibly could. Then, we added more teeth.

Pictured: Polycarbonate teeth on the newest-gen Grip.
To jog your memory: this is how the teeth used to look...

Pictured: Polycarbonate teeth on the first-gen Grip.
If time proves that these changes aren’t enough, our engineers still have a number of ideas on how to improve the bond between the elastomer and polycarbonate. Will we ever need to implement those ideas? Again - that’s a question only time can answer. Each change might be the silver bullet that puts this problem to bed for good... but there's only one way to find out: it involves real-world testing and, with each iteration, months of careful observation.


So, Where Are We Now?
Have the improvements we've made to the Grip case been successful? You bet.
For the sake of comparison: we began shipping iPhone 11 series Grips on September 30th, 2019. Within six months of that date, we had received 52 reports of structural failures - a big improvement over the early days, but still not good enough.
Fast forward two months. We began shipping Note 10 Plus Grip cases on November 21st, 2019. In the first six months of availability, we received exactly eight reports of Note 10 Plus Grips falling apart. Again, a major improvement over the iPhone series in the same stretch of time. If we'd launched the first Grip cases with a failure rate that low, we wouldn't be writing this post right now and you’d have nothing to read while pretending to do work.
How about the Galaxy S20 series, which began shipping on February 10th, 2020? They're the most recent and improved set of SKUs we’ve made to date, leveraging everything we've learned and making further improvements over the Note 10 Plus. No reports so far. Same goes for the iPhone SE and OnePlus 8 series - these SKUs share all the improvements we've made to the underlying design of the Grip case thus far.
Does that mean these numbers will hold forever? Who knows. That's the thing: every improvement we make, we need to wait several months to see how effective it's been. No amount of internal testing can replace the real-world data of shipping cases to hundreds of thousands of users across nearly 200 countries.
We could always just throw in the towel, make the entire case out of rigid plastic, and call it a solved issue... but that would be the easy way out. The Grip case and its unique design properties can't reach their full potential unless we make incremental improvements - then wait and see how they pan out in the real world.
All of which is to say: it's far too early to say the newest set of improvements have officially solved the problem. While the failure rate is still zero, we need to keep watching. We've made a ton of progress, but we're not going to rest until we've killed this issue for good - without sacrificing the unique properties that make the Grip case stand out in a sea of derivative hard plastic and TPU phone cases.
That's probably enough to inspire confidence in someone who's on the fence about buying an S20 Ultra Grip, an iPhone SE Grip, or any Grip we release in the future. But what if you're one of the people who bought an older Grip model?

"I'm One Of The People Who Bought An Older Grip Model!"
We won't sugarcoat it. The failure rates for older Grip models is way higher than we deem acceptable. Why has it taken us this long to publicly address the issue, then?
Easy: it's not as widespread as you might think. Some humans reading this might be looking at their iPhone X Grip, purchased in 2019 and still intact, wondering what all the fuss is about. That's an important consideration: most people who have functioning, still-bonded Grip cases aren't posting on /dbrand about how unbroken it is. The people who've had issues around total product failure are in the minority.
We're not using the word "minority" as a get-out-of-jail-free card here. It's still a way larger number than we'd ever be comfortable with. We simply don't want our transparency and candor in writing this to be misinterpreted as an admission that every single Grip case we've made for older devices is going to fall apart. Statistically speaking, this is an issue for a minority of Grip owners.
Our philosophy at first was that, while it was unfortunate and frustrating that Grip cases were falling apart, dramatic PR action wasn't necessary. Instead, we resolved to:
  1. Quietly and diligently work in the background to improve the underlying design of the Grip case.
  2. Ship free replacements to anyone whose Grip case had failed.
To date, we've spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on shipping fees alone for replacement Grips. As you can imagine, that number gets a lot higher once you add in the cost of actually making the thing. We've been fine with writing these costs off as sort of an R&D expense, since every example of a deformed or de-bonded Grip provides invaluable data on how to improve the product.
Where our strategy backfired was in the narrative that began to take root as Grip cases continued to fall apart. Look at it this way: the failure rate of older Grip case SKUs is anywhere between 1% and 20%, depending on how early we released the SKU. Since the improvements we've already made to the underlying design were rolled out incrementally with each new phone release, that number has been on a steady downward trend.
For the purpose of this thought experiment, we'll go with the earliest, shittiest Grip cases - putting us at a long-term failure rate of 20%.
So, 20% of customers for this device have a Grip case fall apart at some point in the product's lifespan. Every single one of those people writes in to our Customer Experience team about the issue. They all receive a replacement, free of charge.
Since this replacement is identical to the first Grip case they'd received, it also has a 20% failure rate. We're now dealing with percentages of percentages. Stop panicking, we'll do the math for you: that means 4% of these hypothetical Grip owners will have a second Grip case fail on them in the long run.
Four percent is a lot better than twenty… but it's also a lot of people who've been burned twice. These people are going to be extra vocal about how shitty the Grip case is. To be fair, they've got every right.
So, we've got four groups of customers for this SKU:
  • Group A: Has had two or more Grip cases fail (4%).
  • Group B: Has had exactly one Grip case fail (16%).
  • Group C: Bought a Grip which has not failed (80%).
  • Group D: Has not purchased a Grip case (NA%).
Group A is livid about the repeated issues they've had - rightfully so.
Group B, having been burned before, reads about Group A's experience. They take it to mean their replacement will inevitably fail on them as well, and they'll one day get the dubious honor of joining Group A.
Group C, despite not having had any issues yet, reads the experiences of Groups A and B. Then, a significant portion of this group begins to operate under the assumption that it's only a matter of time before their Grip falls apart as well.
Group D reads all of the above and decides they don't have enough confidence in the Grip case to ever purchase one.
A narrative begins to form that this hypothetical failure rate is close to 100%. Worse yet: people with newer phones, unaware that each new iteration of the Grip case has a dramatically reduced failure rate over the last, start to assume their case also has a 100% failure rate. That's where our original strategy - the one where we quietly improved the product in the background while offering replacements for defective units - backfired on us.
This narrative only exists because we've continued to leverage existing stock with too high a failure rate, which, in hindsight, was like pouring gasoline on a gender reveal forest fire of disappointment and regret. This brings us to our next chapter.

Mass Destruction
At this point, you're probably aware that a number of Grip SKUs for older phones have been listed as "Sold Out" on our website, and haven't been restocked since.
We stopped production on these cases because we knew they'd have all the same issues as the original production runs. See, it's not as simple as pushing a "make the Grip not fall apart" button at the factory - we'd need to redesign the case from scratch, implementing all of the design improvements we've made up to this point, then re-tool our existing machinery to produce this new version. We'll have more to say about re-tooling a bit later - for now, focus on the fact that some Grips have been listed as "Sold Out".
If someone's Grip case falls apart while listed as "Sold Out", we don't have any replacements to send them. Instead, dbrand's Customer Experience team has been issuing refunds wherever possible, and store credit otherwise. Just in case you're wondering what we mean by "where possible": PayPal doesn't allow refunds on transactions that are more than six months old. Store credit, on the other hand, can be offered indefinitely.
What we've come to realize is that we're never going to be able to escape this downward spiral until we rip the band-aid off and stop stocking these old, flawed SKUs.
Today, we're ripping the bandaid off. As you're reading this, we're disposing of all of our old stock. All of the flawed Grip SKUs are now listed as "Sold Out".
Head over to our Grip listing and take a look at what's available. Everything that you can currently buy is up to spec with the improvements we've made over the past year - meeting or exceeding the standard of quality set by the Galaxy S20 series, the iPhone SE, and the OnePlus 8 series. In some cases - take, for instance, the iPhone 11 series - this means we've already re-tooled our production lines to meet that quality benchmark.
If a Grip case is listed on "Backorder", it means we've begun the process of re-tooling the SKU to match the improved quality standard you've spent the last five hours reading about.
However, if a Grip case is now listed as "Sold Out", that means no more reshipments.
If you own a sold out Grip case that hasn't fallen apart yet: that's great! Don't assume that your Grip is doomed to fail just because we devoted 5661 words to explaining why it might fall apart. You've still got better odds than you would at a casino.
As always, if you run into any issues with your case, sold out or not, shoot an email to one of our Robots. They'll still take care of you - it just won't be with a replacement case… for now.

Mass Production
Remember when we said we'd talk more about re-tooling a bit later? That's right now.
So, why are so many Grip models not being fixed? Why haven't we re-tooled these old SKUs with all of the quality improvements made to the case's build quality? It's a little complicated.
Taking the improvements we've made to the most recent suite of Grip models and retroactively applying those changes to older SKUs isn't a simple task - it would require us to throw out our existing production tools and create new ones, from scratch. Suffice it to say that doing so is a wildly expensive endeavor.
To recoup that cost, we'd need to produce more Grips than we're likely to ever sell for aging, irrelevant hardware. Let's use the Pixel 3 as an example.
If we replaced every single de-bonded Pixel 3 Grip, that would account for about 3% of the MOQ (Minimum Order Quantity) on a re-tooled Pixel 3 Grip case. Now we're sitting on 97% of that MOQ as overstock. Pixel 3 owners have had their phone for nearly two years now. If they want a phone case, they already have one. They're not looking for new Pixel 3 cases, they're getting ready to buy a new phone. Simply put, it’s no longer a viable market.
Now, say the Pixel 3 was a significantly more popular phone - enough that we'd be shipping out, say, 50% of the MOQ as replacements on day one. Now, that's a lot more tempting to us - we'd still lose boatloads of money, but at least it would go towards some consumer goodwill.
To figure out how much money we'd lose on re-tooling, we gave our bean-counting Robots a giant jar of beans and told them to get to work. They emerged three days later. When asked how many beans were in the jar, they gave us a blank stare. When asked if it was possible to re-tool any of our production lines for old Grip SKUs without losing obscene amounts of money, they said:
"Absolutely not."
Still, we're no strangers to throwing away obscene amounts of money to make the internet happy. Remember Amazon gift cards? Those were the days. The only question that remains is "How much money are we willing to set on fire?"
We can't tell you yet. Why? Because we're currently running a detailed cost-benefit analysis on the subject of re-tooling old production lines, on a SKU-by-SKU basis. That's business talk for "the bean-counting Robots have been given more beans to count."
The objective is to determine the viability of producing new-and-improved Grip stock for older phones: how many units would be tied up in replacements for that model, how many we could reasonably expect to sell to new customers, and how much overstock would be left from the MOQ.
From there, we can determine what the financial impact of re-tooling would be and make the final decision on how much cash we're dumping into the ocean somewhere off the coast of the Seychelles. We'll have our results by early next week.
These re-tooled models, if produced, would feature every improvement we’ve made thus far to the Grip case line, plus a few that have yet to be released. Remember how the S20s, the iPhone SE and the OnePlus 8s haven't had any reported failures yet? Picture that, but for the phone you've got.
If we go ahead with re-tooling production lines for your phone, a few things will happen:
  1. The Grip case for your phone will go from "Sold Out" to "Backorder".
  2. Our Customer Experience Robots will shift their communication strategy from "we no longer support your phone," to "we'll get you a replacement once we've got improved units in stock."
None of these things will happen until we've run the simulations on which phones are getting restocked. Why are we posting this today, then? We could have waited a week and had concrete answers to offer about the future of our out-of-stock Grip cases. Well…

Take Our Survey
This is it: your chance to have some say in how much money we set on fire as a goodwill exercise for this whole R&D clusterfuck.
Those simulations we're running? They'll be great for telling us how much money we're going to lose on each Grip SKU, but it won't tell us anything about how much money our customers want us to lose on each Grip SKU.
To that end, we've prepared a survey for people who have purchased a Grip case. We'll be taking your feedback into consideration during our decision-making process.
We have only one request: don't be a jackass. Answer the questions honestly.
Click here to take the survey.

In Closing...
We're sharing a special moment right now. We're all seeing a light at the end of the tunnel.
For us, that light is "we're almost done with a year-long R&D effort to stop the Grip case from falling apart."
For you, the light is "the end of a 5661-word marathon of a Reddit post."
We just want to take a minute to recognize that we couldn't have gotten this far without your collective support. At any point in the past year, we might have pulled the plug on the Grip project entirely if we'd reached a critical mass of negative sentiment from our customers. Instead, we've got an army of devotees who have no problem paying us for the privilege of being our guinea pigs.
Product development isn't a one-and-done process. It's easy to forget, but our skins weren't always to the world-class, record-setting, Michael-Jordan-in-his-prime standard you expect from us today. If you happen to have an iPhone 4 skin lying around, apply it and let us know how it goes. You'll immediately appreciate how many process improvements we've made. We weren’t born as the greatest skin manufacturer in history. We got there through a process of methodical improvement. Each jump in quality was driven by a bottomless well of user feedback, sourced from millions upon millions of customers. That, and the competition was comically inept.
It's the same story for the Grip case. Your continued support has enabled us to make huge strides in developing a product that's on the cusp of blowing everyone else out of the water. We're going to keep working until it gets there.


Please note that by reading this tl;dr, you’re missing out on several outlandish metaphors, including classics such as:
  • Plastic injection molding melted cheese into your face hole.
  • What if Jesus and Donald Trump built a house?
  • How to turn yourself from “rare to well done” and “solid to paste”.
  • Pencil Perverts.

  • The Grip case is made from two materials: a polycarbonate skeleton and an elastomer frame.
  • The elastomer frame provides the majority of the case's impact protection and grip, but is prone to deformation.
  • We prevent deformation by bonding the material to a polycarbonate skeleton (i.e. the rigid back plate on the Grip case).
  • The bond between the two materials was not as strong as we'd originally anticipated, causing the elastomer to de-bond from the polycarbonate skeleton and the case to sometimes fall apart.

  • Through a series of design revisions, we've made countless improvements to promote a stronger bond between the two materials.
  • These changes have incrementally reduced the failure rate of Grip cases. Our most recent SKUs are yielding extremely promising results.
  • Each time we improve the Grip case, we need to play a months-long waiting game to observe the real-world effects.

  • Since we're using you as guinea pigs for the purposes of product development, we've been uncharacteristically generous with our warranty policy.
  • However, that warranty policy only lasts as long as we have stock. Once we're out of Grips, we're out of replacements.
  • We've finally reached the point where we need to rip off the bandaid and dispose of all of our Grip stock produced during 2019.
  • If your Grip for any of these older phones falls apart, you can no longer get a replacement.
  • You should still write in to our Customer Experience team if it happens to you - we'll work something out.
  • On the bright side, our Grip SKUs from 2020 onwards have dramatically reduced, if not outright eliminated, the failure rate of previous models. We have no reported cases to date.
  • It's not economically viable to re-tool production lines to apply our improved industrial designs to any of the Grip cases that are currently marked as "Sold Out".
  • We're probably going to do it anyways.
  • We're running the simulations right now to determine which older devices will be re-tooled.
  • Take our survey to help determine which devices we'll be re-tooling.
submitted by db_inc to dbrand [link] [comments]

Small reviews of (I think) all incremental games I've ever played on Android

I don't know if this will be useful to anyone. So I write a line or two about every game I play, and decided to find all the incremental in my game journal and post them here. It starts with the latest games I've played and I think goes back to several years back. One thing I've realized is I have such a love-hate-hate relationship with this genre since I think I've hated 90% of the games and 100% of myself after each incremental phase. I usually angrily stop playing them for a while and restart them again, so this is more or less a journal of addiction, I suppose.
  1. Kittens Game
  2. Antimatter Dimensions
  3. Oil Tycoon
Honorable Mention: Eggs, Inc
The rest: more or less hated it
Additional comment if you decide to scan through it, I complain a lot, so it is perfectly reasonable and normal to think, "why the fuck are you even playing these games, idiot??".

Time Idle RPG
This game was confusing. It tells me the game's resources is time, where you get 1 of it every second, but that's not really something as unique as I assumed. It would have been cool if time as resources meant you used it to deal with something related to time. Maybe time travel? Maybe slowing and speeding time?
Instead time as resource buys you stuff like a library. And then you buy a camp or something. Honestly, I wasn't really feeling it.
Path of Idling
The biggest cardinal sin for me when it comes to incremental is when a game has a lot of features and it just completely throws them all at you instantly. The joy of a great incremental is how things slowly open up and each new achievement feels progress.
The game is a RPG game and these are the things that opened up for me in the first few hours.
Combat which includes normal fighting, dungeon, raid, boss, PVP (locked, but it just needs an ascend, which I haven't done)
Hero upgrades which include Passive (strength, defence, stamina, intelligence), Train, and a huge Tree
Town which you can buy workers who get you various things like gold, orbs, knowledge, etc. You can upgrade stuff here.
Quest that also includes Perks and Skill quests.
Gear which 5 equipment slots, plus craft plus trade plus smelt
Also gear for your Pet, which is also another tab!
Now, here is the thing. Because I have all of this pretty much instantly, I don't really know which ones are helping me go past a well. How is adding 10 points in strength helping me? Should I have added five in strength instead and five in defence? I have already bought 20 or so upgrades in the Tree, but I have no idea if I am made the optimal choice. There is no real excitement with getting new gear. And so on.
The dev has added a lot of features, now it's time to rework the game, and have the features take their time.
Idle Slayer
The game is like a super simple platformer. Your character is running and any enemy it hits, it automatically slays it. There is no HP, and all enemies die in one shot. Your only active play is jumping occasionally to grab coins or hit the flying enemies. Also, you have a run skill that has a cool down.
With the coins, we get new weapons that give us more coins. Enemies give us souls which is used for the prestige system that provides us with an interesting skill tree which provides a lot of choices on the path you want to do in terms of upgrades.
So far excellent, however, the game has an extremely serious issue of pacing. The game initially progresses so fast that in the first hour or so, you get almost all the weapons aside from the last two, which then grinds down to a snail pace. You can upgrade your past weapons, but they never really get into play again. Reaching high levels of past weapons sometimes gave me upgrades of that weapon of 10,000% but they still did nothing to my overall coin per second. I think the pacing needs to be fully reworked. It would have been nice to get new weapons after certain prestige cycles, so that every new weapon feels like we have passed a significant wall. The best part of an incremental game for me is to face a wall, and when I finally break it, I feel powerful again for a while. This game feels like this though, powerful powerful powerful powerful WALL........break it....WALL. And so on. I'm still playing it as I want to get some of the skills, but I feel like it could have been so much better.
Exponential Idle
A very back to the foundation kind of incremental. The premise is that you are a student and working on a formula. There is a neat story where as you progress in the game, your character progresses through university. Each upgrade gives you more and more automation until I reached a stage where I would check back once every 2 or 3 days, click a 2nd layer prestige reset, and close it. Meaning the game was something like 5 seconds of game player every 2 days. I just opened it for this review and realized I had reached the end game. The story wraps up and it tells me "You can take a rest. Travel a bit. Go outside!" NO, DON'T TELL ME WHAT TO DO GAME.
Factoid & Spark should have the same review as they are almost the same game with only small differences. The games are the most basic kind of incremental, where you buy something with resources, until you get the next thing which gives you more of the resources. Both give you upgrades to speed things up, and finally prestige and it's own prestige upgrades. That's it. It's nice little change of pace from all the recent incremental that sometimes do too much, but obviously due to the very simple nature of it, it does eventually feel pointless, specially after you more or less open up everything and the prestige upgrades just keep repeating.
Factoid & Spark should have the same review as they are almost the same game with only small differences. The games are the most basic kind of incremental, where you buy something with resources, until you get the next thing which gives you more of the resources. Both give you upgrades to speed things up, and finally prestige and it's own prestige upgrades. That's it. It's nice little change of pace from all the recent incremental that sometimes do too much, but obviously due to the very simple nature of it, it does eventually feel pointless, specially after you more or less open up everything and the prestige upgrades just keep repeating. 3
Antimatter Dimensions
Easily top 5 incremental on mobile. Does everything perfectly. You progress nicely, and when new features open it, not only is it rewarding but more importantly, it keeps adding new dimensions (lol) to the game. I'd at the end game as I write this, and I realize that there was no point in the game where it felt stale. Each new prestige layer made the game feel fresh and almost like a new incremental game.
Melvor Idle
It seems this game was mainly aimed at Runescape players, which is probably why it didn't click for me. It also run extremely slow on my phone which also played a part in me not really getting into.
A Girl Adrift
The animation is really pretty and is a nice change of pace for incrementals, but I didn't really like the too much active play. Really had to keep going back and forth to different areas to do the fishing which got too repetitive for me.
You travel to different areas of the map to catch fish, which you get points and then you upgrade stuff, but I didn't really find any real excitement about the upgrades because I kept having to go back to previous areas to fish similar creatures.
Archer: Danger Phone
I'm really annoyed how terrible of a game this was. Two things I like, the TV show "Archer" and incremental games, and it's done in the most lazy manner. The game is the worst aspect of idle games where it's just a straight path of clicking the next upgrade with absolutely zero decision making. Every once in a while there is a mini game where Archer gets to shoot others but it's done in the most basic form of early 2000s flash games, where the animation budget is probably 3 dollars. Same static background and both enemies and Archer have just two animation frames. The absolute laziness of it is almost insulting to the player, because it feels like we aren't even worth the effort.
There is an Archer story in the game which develops really fast, which is the only positive part, but no voice acting is again another evidence that the creators of the game weren't given any budget for this.
Home Quest
This game is way too slow. You have to collect materials to build your settlement but everything takes time, so you click for a few seconds, and then you have to leave the game. Which I'm fine with, but the problem isn't the idle part of it, it's how the idle part of it combines with constant checking of the game which annoys me. I like an idle game where you forget to start the game for a day, you come up to a lot of resources, but this is a game which needs you to check back in every 30 minutes or an hour to really get anywhere. I felt that the micromanagement was getting worse as I progressed (without any actual thing to do when I am active in the game) that made me give up.
Idle Industry
This is probably an interesting game, but I gave up because the one thing I really disliked was the amount of resources and manufacturing that very quickly opens to you. You can buy raw materials, and you can either sell these raw materials or turn them into finished goods and sell them either. And each of these has several upgrade options (increase selling price, increase production, etc). Without even really getting too deep into the game, I have around 20 raw materials and around 30 finished products. A satisfying part of this genre is to have things slow open up for you, which gives me a decent feeling of satisfaction. But the money I got would quickly open up new products, so I would just jump ahead and purchase more expensive ones, and after a while I had a lot of materials and products at zero, and was instead focusing on latter ones.
Masters of Madness
Somewhat neat atmosphere and visuals, but too much active clicking. Click, upgrade to get more per clicks, get minions to get you some points without clicking, typical clicker, but with the added benefit of almost no idling. I like idling incrementals but clickers is a hard no from me.
Soda Dungeon 2
Basically similar to the first one, as far as I could tell. I did "finish" it but maybe I shouldn't have, since it really is the same thing from early on, specially once you get all the heroes and you kind of sort out which characters work best, then it's just the same. But because it was somewhat short and no real wall, it was at least easy to stick to it to the end.
Bacterial Takeover
Played for a decent amount and was actually more interesting that I thought, given the buttload of ad incentives. You create and upgrade bacteria, attack planets, and eventually go into a blackhole to prestige. Most of the game was good, but the part that killed it for me was the prestige system. Once you prestige, planets get super easy to attack, which becomes a lot of active play. I realized that each prestige was taking me at least 30 minutes to get to where I was, and it was just meaningless clicking. It got to a point where I was putting off prestige because it seemed like it would be a hassle so I stopped.
Cute graphics. The hero sort of hopping to hit the tiny monsters is cute to look at, but how long can you look at it and do nothing before you realize that it's boring? I suppose this is a game where it's just not for me. I don't like to have my phone open on a game and just watch it like a crazy person and do nothing. My rule is simple for incrementals. While the app is open, be active, if there isn't any choices to make, close the app while resources build up or whatever. I don't like it being open while I do nothing.
A Kittens Game
Incremental games are so strange. I get in and out of the phases. I loved this for so long and so obsessively that I wanted to only play incremental games. And then, just like that, I was wondering why the fuck I was wasting my time with this. Has happened countless times before.
But still probably the best incremental ever.
A Dark Room
An incremental cult classic of sorts but I don't find it really matches the genre. There is a bit of incremental at the beginning with people huts and stuff but then its just a ascii exploring game, which wasn't interesting to me.
Little Healer
Saw it mentioned in the Reddit incremental forum in one of the posts and thought it was a healer themed incremental which sounded neat. But it's like being a healer in a raid in World of Warcraft without any if the extras. Just a couple of bars representing your team mates and you healing them while they fight the boss. I didn't even like playing the healer in WoW so no way would I play this game.
Clickie Zoo
Started playing for a few days until I realized there a beta released with the dev reworking the game completely from scratch and releasing it as "Idle Zoo Tycoon". So, played that instead but this seemed like a game I would enjoy anyway.
Idling to Rule the Gods
The UI and one drawing if your character is really ugly enough to be distracting to me. The game, seemed interesting and I eventually was into it, but seems like a game that has been constantly being updated, which is not always a good thing, because features are obviously updated regularly to it, making the whole thing a bit bloaty.
I guess, this is the problem with this game for me, it's too fat. Also, one main part of the game is that your character creates Shadow Clones up to a maximum limit. Which is fine except the clones can't be made in offline mode. This might not be a big deal in its original web browser game but that doesn't work as well in a mobile format.
Realm Grinder
This is one of the really popular incremental and it's fanbase seems to love it for it's depth, but to be honest, I don't play these games for the depth, I play it for the simple dopamine rush of doing the same thing over and over again. It relaxes.
Although, I didn't even get to the depth part because I dislike games where it rushes in the beginning. I constantly bought buildings, got spells, and got upgrades without even looking at the description. Apparently, later on, we can get complicated race upgades, which seems not what I'm looking for in such a genre.
A short (!!) incremental with an actual story (!!!). That's two cool points for it but unfortunately, the game mechanics of increment genre isn't so good. It's a space game with nice visuals and a great ending (cool music set to cool graphics) but the game itself wasn't really that fun. This same exact game would have been better in a different genre (maybe something like "Out There"?)
Felt like idle games again and this is the kind of examples that kept me away. Too much clicking and seems like advancement will start to get irritating since it relies on IAPs
Eggs, Inc
While I was playing it, Eggs, Inc was probably my favorite Android game I had ever played. But like most incremental games, there comes a moment when I suddenly stop and think, what am I doing?
Because there is something fascinating about Incrementals. Their addictiveness is in a way the whole point. An incremental is less of a game and more an act of electronic addictiveness. What's the point?
Eggs, Inc is a very well made and fun incremental but even the best in its genre is still pointless.
Castle Clicker
Supposedly a mix of incremental and city building but didn't really find out since the clickings were way to much. I know this is supposed to be the genre but I like the incremental part more than the tapping part. This seemed to be a good way to hurt your fingers.
Endless Era
This RPG clicker game is like other such games but with horrible GUI and animations. Tap tap tap. It's my fault for downloading such games. Why would I ever think this would be fun???
Idle Quote
An incremental game with a unique twist. This time we get to make up quotes! The first negative about the game and this irritates me a lot is most of the quotes are fake. A quick search on Google and this proves it. Quotes are generally attributed to Buddha or Ghandi or shit like that and it's usually fake like most quotes on the internet. This kills the major possible advantage of the game because I thought coming up with arbitrary words would at least give me some quotes to learn. Aside from the this, the game isn't fun either because it slows down very quickly meaning you combine words very slowly at a certain stage of the game and then it becomes a boring grind.
Monster Miser
An incremental game with almost no graphics. We just see character portraits of monsters which we buy and then upgrade until we buy the next monster. Eventually we prestige which gives us multipliers. The only game choice is choosing between two monsters with each new monster with unique benefits. Annoyingly there is a max limit which I wish didn't exist because I wanted to prestige so much that I would be over powerful in upgrading like that "Idle Oil Tycoon". Still, pointless but reasonably fun.
Pocket Politics
An incremental take on politics sounds fun but it's so generic that it could have been about anything. A Capitalist idle game or a cooking idle game, it wouldn't matter. IAP was also the usual shitty kind.
Time Clickers
A shooter incremental sounds like a cool twist but it's not a FPS like I imagined it would be. I'm just stuck in a room and I was shooting blocks. Upgrades didn't give me any enjoyment since I was shooting fucking blocks.
Tap Tap Fish - Abyssrium
I thought this was going to be relaxing incremental but the ridiculous and generic IAPs and all the social integeration spoil it. Too much time is spent in them asking you to buy or share or tweet or post or give them a blowjob. And there is nothing relaxing about that.
Cartoon 999
Incremental game about comic book writers, but not the marvel DC kind, it seemed to be the webcomic one and I think it's a Korean developer so all the characters and injokes made no sense to me. The whole thing was just targeted to a very specific audience.
Dungeon Manager
Incremental games need to be simple but this is beyond simple, it's just upgrade a fighter to level 5, go to next dungeon character, do the same, and just continue without any of the delicious balancing of upgrades like other idle games.
Final Fortress
Incremental games are already pointless but when it's super heavy on IAP than its also annoying, but when it always has bugs that doesn't register my offline earnings, then it just needs a uninstall in its face.
The zombie skin was also crappy.
Mana Maker
Here is how I know this clicker isn't very good. It doesn't make me hate all clickers and my life and mobile gaming in general for being so addictive and pointless.
So fail, sorry.
Infinity Dungeon
The usual incremental RPG that I should probably never play again. Starts simple enough and then gets more or a chore as you play.
Another incremental game which I had promised myself not to play anymore because they are so pointless and repetitive and endless. Well, this wasn't infinite and had a goal at 999 level so I thought it was good but while the humor was cute, the game did become very repetitive. Every 10 levels the slimes changed but after every 100 levels the whole thing restarted and while the monsters got stronger, I seemed to get even stronger. So the game became easier as I progressed and there was no more challenge. By level 800, I gave up.
Tap Dungeon RPG
Okay, I'm running out of ways to complain about those incremental RPG games that all have similar problems. It starts off reasonably fast and fun but soon it seems like I am in a data entry job. Doing the same thing over and over again with little changes.
Dungeon 999 F: Secret of Slime Dungeon
Another incremental game which I had promised myself not to play anymore because they are so pointless and repetitive and endless. Well, this wasn't infinite and had a goal at 999 level so I thought it was good but while the humor was cute, the game did become very repetitive. Every 10 levels the slimes changed but after every 100 levels the whole thing restarted and while the monsters got stronger, I seemed to get even stronger. So the game became easier as I progressed and there was no more challenge. By level 800, I gave up.
Tap Dungeon RPG
Okay, I'm running out of ways to complain about those incremental RPG games that all have similar problems. It starts off reasonably fast and fun but soon it seems like I am in a data entry job. Doing the same thing over and over again with little changes.
Tower of Hero
You start on the first floor of the tower and keep fighting your way up by summoning your heroes (by clicking) and recruiting other fighters, get upgrades, level up, and then, ugh, here is the typical incremental RPG part, restart, get items, and do it ALL over again.
There is something fun about restarting and getting slowly stronger each time but it also feels so pointless after a while. Such a pointless genre now that I have played a billion of such titles, heh.
Yet another incremental RPG which I have no idea why I downloaded because I'm sick of the genre. I played a pageboy to a knight who does the fighting while I collect the lot. I collect the loot, buy stuff for the knight, and eventually I restart to do the same thing again and get better items but this game I didn't even RESTART! Because fuck it! Fuck it!
Idle Warriors
The story is cute. Human population is regressing while monster population is on the rise. So the humans start enslaving monsters to mine for them! The brave warriors beat the crap out of monsters, kidnap the bosses, and enslave them. The animation of monsters slaving away while speech balloons above them talk about their wife and children is funny.
But the game itself is another RPG incremental which I should start staying away from. These games are like a chore for me nowadays because I'm doing the same crap again and again. The blame is probably on me because it seems like a reasonably solid game. But hey, fuck it, I PERSONALLY didn't enjoy it.
Tap! Tap! Faraway!
Any game that is remotely like Tap Titan scares me. They are addictive at first and very fast moving but after every restart gets more and more annoying. It soon turns into a time eating activity with the player having to redo the initial levels to get relics to get better items to progress further to restart to get relics to and so on until the player realizes how much time he is putting in the game for a repetitive activity.
Auto RPG
Now that is a title the game developers didn't spend too much time on. RPG battles are automatic but I can help out by clicking like a mad man. I started with one hero but would get additional members in my party as the story progressed. Party members receive skills as as they level up and while all the skill usage is automatic, it did give me a sense of progression which is extremely important in a RPG and which I think is usually lacking in incremental games. It usually starts feeling useless but in this game at least there are new maps, new members, and an actual end sight!
There is an infinity stage once the last boss is defeated but I am glad the infinity stage happens AFTER the end and it's not the game itself.
Hire a hero and send on to battle. The battles is done automatically and takes time, starts with something short like 10 seconds with each battle taking longer. The loot is raw materials which can be used to craft equipment which also takes real life time with better items taking longer. The crafted items can either be sold or equipped to the hero to make him be able to fight stronger monsters.
I was worried I would hate the longer crafting and fighting times because I hate games which I have to watch for a task to finish but even though the durations for longer, I had more to do. However, I don't know what would have happened in the end game because I gave up on it. New maps were exactly like the first map just with different heroes but the progression was similar in each level which felt that I was doing the exact same thing all over again but with longer task times.
Idle Oil Tycoon
This is the best idle game I played. It's graphics aren't just minor, they are none existent. It's just numbers, so basic that my sister thought I was on a stock market app.
It's such a simple concept. Invest, get oil, upgrade then like other idlers restart to get a bonus and do the full thing all over again. When I finished the game, I played the unlimited mode which I played until the unlimited mode couldn't handle the numbers anymore.
Soda Dungeon
This kind-of Idle Dungeon was great. I started with weak ass fighters who would fight on my behalf while I collected the loot. I then got to use the lot to upgrade the sofa bar to recruit more adventurers. Not sure why it was a sofa bar. Maybe they wanted to make it a family game and not have alcohol? Sounds weird but the sofa element in a RPG game sounds weirder.
The game only hit a brick for me when, like most other incremental games, there is no real closure. Once I thought I bet the big bad guy, it just goes on, harder but similar enough with no end in sight. Eventually, we have to stop playing right, but it always feels a bit like a let down when I don't feel like I have finished the game.
10 Billion Wives Kept Man Life
The two games from this company, 10 Billion Wives and Kept Man Life, have similar strengths and weaknesses.
I liked the silly premises from both. In 10BM, I had to get married as much as I could, using the loves I collect to marry more expensive wives! In KML, I'm a boyfriend who doesn't work and I have to please my career gf so she would take care of me.
Both start reasonably fast and I was willing to grind through difficult parts but the end game is like a brick wall. Passing through it to get all the achievements is pretty much impossible unless one puts in way too many hours. And it's a shame because I really wanted to get all the achievements to see all the tiny little extra stuff.
Adventure Capitalist
One of the better incremental games, but now that I am out of the short lived incremental fan phase, I realized how dumb the genre is. Tap, tap, tap, upgrade, do this a million times, reset, and do it all over again like a moron. The game does deserve credits for me acting like a moron and playing it for so long but I also cheated and got free cash and then if occupying became even more pointless.
The Monolith
A combination of an incremental and a civilization building game seemed like an excellent idea and in some ways, it was, specially how we get to upgrade through the ages from cavemen to futuristic. But no offline feature means that the resets aren't enticing.
USSR Simulator
An incremental game that has a great theme (USSR!) but absolutely horrible to enjoy, even though I did stick to it. After a certain upgrades, the game just turned into me popping in the game, clicking an upgrade and then forgetting about the game for a few days.
RPG Clicker
They should call these games tappers not clickers. We are not clicking anything on a touchscreen device. Anyway, tap tap tap level up buy weapons tap tap and uninstall.
Logging Quest Logging Quest 2
[Review is for the original and its sequel]
There is not much of a difference between the game. I actually played them both at the same time because the actual game is offline. You choose your hero, send them to a dungeon, and then come back to the game after a while to see how well they did. I thought an offline RPG like this might be interesting but then, if you don't really play a game, how much fun can it be?
Another pointless incremental. I was in an incremental phase and got so many incremental games that I know realize were absolutely pointless.
Hit a tree, buy upgrades, get a new hero, and continue hitting a tree. Not much offline it seems which is what I like about incrementals.
Galaxy Clicker
A space incremental that should have been a lot of fun. You get to upgrade your spaceship and buy new ones and explorer new planets. But first of all, the interface is so ugly that it makes playing the game less enjoyable. And a lot of things I didn't really get no matter how much I would play like the full exploring planets. The spaceships were nice, so it could have been fun.
A pretty pointless incremental kind of game. You are a tramp and then you can collect money to buy upgrades to make more money, with no strategy needed, nor any effort needs to be made to hurt your brain cells.
Inflation RPG
It supposed to be some kind of incremental RPG, I think, which has you resetting and getting more powerful and then fighting monsters to get insane levels. It is very unique but I couldn't get into it.
Widget RPG
Are you fucking with me? This is button bashing rpg in the most extreme manner. You get a widget, so you don't even have to open the game and distract yourself from the button bushing. Just click the button and the game plays behind the scenes and gets you experience, loot, and kills.
It's a ridiculous idea that is fun for a few minutes to see what they come up with but there is only so much button bashing you can do.
Capitalist Tycoon
I downloaded this game because I was in an incremental/idle game phase and really enjoyed AdVenture Capitalist. But this game is nothing like that. On the surface, it seems similar, buy small investments, make money, buy bigger investments, and so on.
But with this game, there is no offline mode, and you keep having to wake up managers, AND the goal is to see how much you make in one year. Bah. I prefer the incremental approach which makes you build and build and build, not try to rush it in just a year.
Clicking Bad
An incremental clicking game that is themed after Breaking Bad. It is a fun idea it's a very simple game with little to do aside from the obvious of upgrading and upgrading. The only twist might be to balance out making lots of money selling drugs and not attracting the law but even that is only a small challenge at the start. Eventually, you will get enough upgrades to bring the law risk so down that it makes no impact on the game play.
Zombie Tapper
A super basic incremental clicker game with a zombie team. Click click click to eat brains, use brains (?) to buy zombies to do the brain eating for you and then buy upgrades for your zombies, and buy new zombies and it all feels very pointless.
Bitcoin Billionaire
I started to enjoy incremental games, but it needs to have a good offline mode, because I don’t want to just play a game where I keep tapping. But that doesn’t mean I didn’t play. I played it, and I played a lot of it, because I could reset the game (like most incremental games) and it gives you a small benefit where you could finish the full game a bit faster (it gives you bonus income). So, I kept finishing and resetting, and each time the start to finish would shorten, so I thought I would reach a stage where I could finish each start-to-finish in an instant! It didn’t happen. I got bored first.
Tap Titan
An addictive tapping game. Just tap on the creatures, level up, get new skills, hire heroes, and then reset and to it all over again to progress further. It’s an incremental game where it depends on resets to progress, but no real offline bonus, so you have to be playing online. Which got boring, so I installed an app that does the tapping for me, which is actually a stupid way to play the game, but this isn’t an attempt to prove to anyone my intelligence. Anyway, thankfully something went wrong and my progress got deleted, WHICH WAS A GOOD THING, because the game was extremely addictive.
God Squad
I’ve realized most incremental games are stupid. Tap on monsters to kill, collect gold, buy Roman Gods, level them up, fight other monsters, and then get bored.
submitted by madali0 to incremental_games [link] [comments]

[OC] Every NBA Team Ranked By How Well They Have Performed To Preseason Expectations This Regular Season In 2019-20.

With another regular season complete I decided it would be cool to continue my annual series and take a look back at every NBA team this season and place them into tiers based on how well they performed relative to pre-season expectations. These are the 7 tiers teams will be fit into.
I have made this series of post over the last two seasons and both were very positively received so I hope you guys enjoy this version as well. Here is a link to the 2018 edition and another link to the 2019 edition for anyone interested.
As always different teams have different issues throughout a season. So, as a result, to determine how each team performed relative to expectations I have considered the team’s overall win-loss record but also how acknowledged injuries and other context of how they have performed.
An important clarification to make here is that teams can exceed their preseason expectations and still have disappointing seasons.
This is just my opinion and I am keen to shuffle the list around if people disagree with my results so feel free to leave your input and I will be very willing to take the feedback. Please don’t be too harsh and I will try to make sure my rankings are as accurate as possible
Just a couple other things to consider:
It was tricky to write the post this year with the complications of unbalanced fixtures due to the 'bubble games' and the shorter season. I have scaled each teams WL record to the equivalent of an 82 game season for the sake of these comparisons in the post so that's why the WL records are different.

Completely Exceeded Expectations

  • OKC Thunder WL Record: 50-32
The OKC Thunder were predicted to win 37 games in the preseason with Bleacher Report expecting them to win as few as 33 games. They were viewed as a team that would commit to a rebuild after the shock departure of all-star duo Russell Westbrook and Paul George. While they had acquired great veteran players in Paul and Gallinari the expectation was that those two would be moved by the trade deadline.
In /nba preseason power ranking predictions not a single voter, out of 29 people, expected the Thunder to make the playoffs. Despite a modest start to the season at 11-14, which was already better than expected, nobody expected OKC to be a playoff threat let alone a 50 win team. Their success can be attributed to many factors such as the terrific leadership of Chris Paul, the elite play of Shroeder who is sure to be a strong contender for 6MOTY and the breakout season of second year player Shai Gilgeous Alexander. The Thunder have surprised everyone this season so look for them to try and cause a major first round upset.
  • Toronto Raptors WL Record: 60-22
The Toronto Raptors were predicted to win 45 games in the preseason with Bleacher Report Odds expecting them to win as few as 42 games. They were viewed as a team that would make the playoffs in a 3-6 seed in the weak East but would struggle to compete amongst the league’s elite following the departure of FMVP Kawhi Leonard and role player Danny Green.
In /nba preseason power ranking predictions all 29 voters expected the Raptors to make the playoffs, however none of them predicted Toronto to finish with a top 2 seed. Toronto defied that expectation and played at a 60 win place this season which saw them finish with the league’s second best record outright. Fred VanVleet, Norman Powell and OG Anunoby all made major improvements in their game, as did Pascal Siakam who made his first all star appearance. It's unbelievable that the Raptors finished the year 28-5 especially with their starters missing over 50 games through injury in 2019-20 and it's a huge testament to the system Nick Nurse has created and the Raptors next man up mentality that sees them as arguably the deepest team in the league. Could they shock everyone and go back to back?
  • Memphis Grizzlies WL Record: 38-44
The Memphis Grizzlies were predicted to win 28 games in the preseason with Bleacher Report expecting them to win as few as 24 games. They were viewed as a young team that was set to enter a new rebuilding era after the departure of franchise legends Marc Gasol and Mike Conley. A successful season for Memphis would've been to see rookies Brandon Clarke and Ja Morant as well as sophomore Jaren Jackson Jr develop.
In /nba preseason power ranking predictions not a single voter, out of 29 people, expected the Grizzlies to make the playoffs. However, despite a poor start to the season at 6-16, Memphis surprised everyone and were in playoffs contention all the way until the final day of the regular season. Expected rookie of the year Ja Morant averaged 18/4/7, Brandon Clarke was a hidden gem off the bench, Jaren Jackson continued to improve in a major way and 2017 first round pick Dillon Brooks emerged as a strong 3&D scorer doubling his PPG total from the year prior. They may have just missed playoffs in 2020 but the Grizzlies future looks to be heading in a promising direction.

Exceeded Expectations

  • Phoenix Suns WL Record: 38-44.
The Phoenix Suns were predicted to win 31 games in the preseason with Bleacher Report expecting them to win as few as 27 games. They were viewed as a young team in a brutal Western Conference that wouldn't really be much of a threat to anyone. A successful season for Phoenix would've been to see growth from their young stars and to close the gap between their best and worst games.
In /nba preseason power ranking predictions not a single voter, out of 29 people, expected the Suns to make the playoffs and to be honest for almost the entire season they weren't really considered a playoff chance. However, they went on a remarkable 8 game win streak in the bubble and were one Caris Levert jump shot away from qualifying for a play in. Despite the heartbreak of missing playoffs, the Suns do have a sense of direction now for the first time in a while. Free agent Ricky Rubio was a great fit for the team and helped lead the Suns to become the number one assist team in the NBA. Devin Booker received an overdue all-star selection and with DeAndre Ayton's great second season the future is looking brighter in Phoenix.
  • LA Lakers WL Record: 60-22
The LA Lakers were predicted to win 50 games in the preseason with 538 expecting them to win as few as 48 games. They were viewed as a team that was top heavy with compromised depth, and with Anthony Davis' injury history and Lebron's reputation for coasting there weren't many believers that the Lakers would secure a top 2 seed in the regular season.
In /nba preseason power ranking predictions all 29 voters expected the Lakers to make the playoffs, however only 7 of them predicted LA to hold a top 2 seed in the stacked Western Conference. This ended up being just another lesson for us who doubted Lebron though as the Lakers elite defence saw them achieve great regular season success. James played at an MVP level and in year 17 clinched his first assists title as he played more of a point guard role. Anthony Davis was terrific too leading the team in points, rebounds, steals and blocks, proving to be a great duo next to Lebron. It's still to be seen how far the Lakers can go with limited depth and a top-heavy line up in the playoffs but this regular season they exceeded expectations.
  • Milwaukee Bucks WL Record: 63-19
The Milwaukee Bucks were predicted to win 55 games in the preseason with Kevin Pelton's odds expecting them to win as few as 51 games. They were viewed as a team that would compete for the number one seed in the Eastern Conference, but not many expected them to play at such a high level for so much of the season as they held a record of 52-8 (71 win pace) before managing players to end the year.
In /nba preseason power ranking predictions all 29 voters expected the Bucks to make the playoffs, all voters put them as a top 2 seed, however only 17 of them predicted them to finish on top of the Eastern Conference. It seems odd that the team with the league’s best record last season exceeded expectations by doing it again, but as stated before, the Bucks had a historic record before load managing kicked in late in the year and the team never looked like losing their grip on the 1 seed. They began the year 24-3 and look like the team to beat. Giannis had another MVP caliber season averaging 30/14/6 and is also the odds on favourite to win DPOY. They've dominated this regular season but now the true challenge is to go all the way and win it all.
  • Miami Heat WL Record: 49-33.
The Miami Heat were predicted to win 43 games in the preseason with 538 expecting them to win as few as 41 games. They were viewed as a team that would be competing for playoffs but a first round exit at best. The departure of Whiteside, Richardson and Wade who all received major minutes in 2019 had people unsure what to make of them but the addition of Butler was enough to expect them not to bottom out.
In /nba preseason power ranking predictions 25/29 voters expected the Heat to make the playoffs, 5 correctly predicting Miami to finish with a top 5 seed. The improvement by the Heat can largely be attributed to the breakout season of third year star Bam Adebayo who averaged 16/10/5 to make his first all star appearance. In addition to his play the Heat’s other young stars all made big impacts with Duncan Robinson, Tyler Herro and Kendrick Nunn all playing great basketball. They may not go all the way this year, but the young Heat team looks ready to compete for the foreseeable future.
  • Charlotte Hornets WL Record: 29-53.
The Charlotte Hornets were predicted to win 23 games in the preseason with Bleacher Report expecting them to win as few as 16 games. They were viewed as a team that was doomed after the departure of Kemba Walker and one that had no direction or quality players. Many expected them to be one of the outright worst teams in NBA history too.
In /nba preseason power ranking predictions not a single voter, out of 29 people, expected the Hornets to make the playoffs and to be honest for almost the entire season they weren't really considered a playoff chance. However, they managed to amazingly finish the season with the 9th best record of Eastern Conference teams, and while that’s not an accurate reflection of how good the Hornets are it shows that they weren’t that bad. Devonte Graham improved his PPG by over 13 points and Terry Rozier had a solid first season in Charlotte to give Hornets fans something to cheer about moving on to 2021.
  • Dallas Mavericks WL Record: 47-35.
The Dallas Mavericks were predicted to win 42 games in the preseason with ESPN expecting them to win as few as 41 games. They were viewed as a team with two young stars that could push for the playoffs in a competitive Western Conference but nothing more than at best an 8 seed.
In /nba preseason power ranking predictions just 6, out of 29 people, expected the Mavs to make the playoffs, all of those selections were as an 8th seed too. However Dallas did better than many expected and were in the playoff picture all season, with their final win percentage relatively high for a 7th seed. It’s not hard to tell where the improvement came from as Luka Doncic announced himself to the NBA. The Slovenian sophomore averaged 29/9/9 and will be sure to feature highly in the MVP voting. In addition to his improvement, Kristaps Porzingis had a career season and got better as the season went on. The Mavs have the odds stacked against them going against the Clippers but this regular season was a success for Dallas fans.

Slightly Exceeded Expectations

  • Boston Celtics WL Record: 55-27.
The Boston Celtics were predicted to win 48 games in the preseason with Bleacher Report expecting them to win as few as 45 games. They were viewed as a team in an uncomfortable situation after a drama filled 2018-19. Kyrie Irving and Al Horford departed and with Kemba, Tatum and Brown the new face of the team the expectation was a comfortable playoff appearance but not really a championship threat.
In /nba preseason power ranking predictions all 29 voters expected the Celtics to make the playoffs, 17 correctly predicting Boston to have home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. The Celtics were led by Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown who both took big steps forward in years 3 and 4 to show why they are so highly touted and viewed as the future for Boston. The year was one without much drama, a stark difference to 2019, and one that all Celtics fans could enjoy, Gordon Hayward returned to his best form and Kemba Walker was a great fit for the team. Regardless of how these playoffs pan out Boston looks ready to remain an East contender for years to come.
  • New York Knicks WL Record: 26-56.
The New York Knicks were predicted to win 24 games in the preseason with Bleacher Report expecting them to win as few as 20 games. They were viewed as a team that would have a dreadful year after an offseason that saw them have to revert to a plan B after failing to sign a big-name free agent.
In /nba preseason power ranking predictions not a single voter, out of 29 people, expected the Knicks to make the playoffs, and while they didn’t qualify there were still some positives to take out of the season. RJ Barrett showed flashes of his potential and Mitchell Robinson continued to thrive as their center for the future. It’s a little funny to say that the Knicks ended up slightly exceeding expectations by playing at a 24 win pace but by avoiding a bottom 5 record this season I’d say they fit the category.

Met Expectations

  • Indiana Pacers WL Record: 50-32.
The Indiana Pacers were predicted to win 45 games in the preseason with Kevin Pelton’s odds expecting them to win as few as 43 games. They were viewed as a team with solid depth and good players to make up for the departure of Bojan Bogdanovic, Wes Matthews and Thaddeus Young in the offseason but weren’t really deemed much of a threat.
In /nba preseason power ranking predictions all 29 voters expected the Pacers to make the playoffs, 16 correctly predicting Indiana to have home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. The Pacers were led by TJ Warren, Malcolm Brogdon and first time all star Domantas Sabonis who averaged 19/12/5 for the season. The Pacers were probably the most accurately predicted team this season as everyone knew that they were better than your typical fringe playoff team but they weren’t really set to be an outright contender. It’ll be interesting to see if they can end their first round hoodoo this season against Miami in the playoffs.
  • LA Clippers WL Record: 56-26.
The LA Clippers were predicted to win 53 games in the preseason with Bleacher Report Odds expecting them to win as few as 52 games. They were viewed as a team with two superstar small forwards that would coast through the regular season and be ready to compete for a championship after developing chemistry all season.
In /nba preseason power ranking predictions all 29 voters expected the Clippers to make the playoffs, with less than half of them correctly predicting them to finish the regular season with a top 2 seed. As stated before, this was largely due to the belief that the Clippers would be managing their star players for the playoffs. Despite a down year for Paul George, LAC were still able to play at a 56 win pace in large part due to some elite bench play from duo Lou Williams and 6MOTY front runner Montrezl Harrell. However, the Clippers were always a playoff lock and the real challenge begins now on their quest for championship success.
  • Washington Wizards WL Record: 29-53.
The Washington Wizards were predicted to win 28 games in the preseason with Bleacher Report expecting them to win as few as 19 games. They were viewed as a team with no real direction and a strange roster of misfits. Bradley Beal was expected to be traded before the trade deadline to allow the team to embrace a full rebuild.
In /nba preseason power ranking predictions not a single voter, out of 29 people, expected the Wizards to make the playoffs yet they found themselves in a position to make the playoffs with 8 games remaining. Bradley Beal was a shining light for the team averaging a career high 30.5 points per game and the growth of Thomas Bryant, Rui Hachimura and Mo Wagner was something for Washington to enjoy but the success was limited. For being just about as bad as we expected them to be this season, despite playing at a below 30 win pace, the Wizards are classified as meeting expectations.
  • Cleveland Cavaliers WL Record: 24-58.
The Cleveland Cavaliers were predicted to win 23 games in the preseason with Bleacher Report expecting them to win as few as 19 games. They were viewed as a young team with no real stars but a team that could see some development in their youngsters. Kevin Love was expected to be traded before the trade deadline to allow the team to embrace a full rebuild.
In /nba preseason power ranking predictions not a single voter, out of 29 people, expected the Cavs to make the playoffs and for good reason too. The Cavaliers finished the season with the second worst record in the entire NBA and had very few positives outside of the improved offensive game of second year guard Colin Sexton. A late season trade for Andre Drummond was unexpected and it’ll be intriguing to see what direction this team takes from here. It’s funny to say that the Cavs met expectations this year but they were horrible as everyone was expecting.
  • Denver Nuggets WL Record: 52-30.
The Denver Nuggets were predicted to win 54 games in the preseason with basketball reference expecting them to win 53 games. They were viewed as a great regular season team with lots of depth and quality players that give them a strong opportunity to secure a top 4 seed in the regular season while the majority of the West powerhouse teams would coast a bit more.
In /nba preseason power ranking predictions all 29 voters expected the Nuggets to make the playoffs, with 21 of those votes allocated to Denver making a top 3 seed. It’s hard to find a major storyline for the whole year to go off for the team as they did what was pretty much expected of them. Nikola Jokic had another fine season averaging 20/10/7 while Will Barton provided a spark to remain one of the league’s most underappreciated players. The biggest positive for the Nuggets was the late season emergence of Michael Porter Jr who will look to build on his great recent play with a series win over Utah.

Slightly Didn't Meet Expectations

  • Sacramento Kings WL Record: 35-47.
The Sacramento Kings were predicted to win 37 games in the preseason with Bleacher Report expecting them to win as many as 40 games. They were viewed as a team that looked set to put their past history of failure behind them and build on a great 2019 season. A successful season for the Kings would’ve been qualifying for the playoffs for the first time since 2006.
In /nba preseason power ranking predictions just 8, out of 29 people, expected the Kings to make the playoffs, all of those selections were as an 8th seed too. Unfortunately, they didn’t make the improvement expected of them. The Kings began the season 0-5 and never looked like a playoff threat and as a result extended their streak of failing to make the playoffs to 15 straight years. A rare positive in a disappointing year was the continued growth of Fox and Bogdanovic but this was an otherwise forgettable year for Sacramento.
  • Utah Jazz WL Record: 50-32.
The Utah Jazz were predicted to win 52 games in the preseason with Bleacher Report expecting them to win as many as 59 games. They were viewed as a great regular season team with lots of depth and quality players that would give them an opportunity to secure a top 4 seed in the regular season while the majority of the West powerhouse teams would coast a bit more.
In /nba preseason power ranking predictions all 29 voters expected the Jazz to make the playoffs. 16 of those votes were allocated with the expectation that the Jazz would have a top 4 record in the West, and despite doing so, something about Utah just seemed off this year. Perhaps it was their inability to match it with the league’s elite teams but nobody really considered the team a major threat in the West. Rudy Gobert had another DPOY caliber year and Donovan Mitchell received an overdue All-Star selection as a positive for the team but they ultimately fell to the 6th seed after a three way tiebreaker.
Brooklyn Nets WL Record: 40-42.
The Brooklyn Nets were predicted to win 43 games in the preseason with Bleacher Report Odds expecting them to win 43 games. They were viewed as a decent team on paper but one that didn't have a lot to play for in 2020 with the absence of Kevin Durant. A pass mark for the Nets this year would simply be making the playoffs and being competitive.
In /nba preseason power ranking predictions 26/29 voters expected the Nets to make the playoffs, but ultimately this year didn't hold much significance. In a way its remarkable that the team played within 3 games of their expected win total too given that Kyrie Irving only played 20 games for the year, two of which were 50 point performances. With the improvement of Caris Levert and Spencer Dinwiddie, the Brooklyn Nets will be a force to be reckoned with in 2021 if the team can stay healthy.
Orlando Magic WL Record: 37-45.
The Orlando Magic were predicted to win 42 games in the preseason with Kevin Pelton’s odds expecting them to win as many as 47 games. They were viewed as a young team that was on the up. A team that would be a near lock for playoffs and in a weaker Eastern conference, a team that could push for a 5th seed or potentially higher.
In /nba preseason power ranking predictions 16/29 voters expected the Magic to make the playoffs but a majority outside the subreddit rated them much higher. The Magic were an elite defensive team this season with Jonathon Isaac making a name for himself as a defensive star of the future. Vucevic, Fournier and Gordon were all reliable offensive players and Fultz showed signs of improvement after a nightmare start to his career. The Magic only played at a 37 win pace which was lower than expected but since they still solidly made playoffs so they only slightly failed to meet expectations this year.
New Orleans Pelicans WL Record: 34-48.
The New Orleans Pelicans were predicted to win 39 games in the preseason with basketball reference expecting them to win as many as 40 games. They were viewed as a young team with solid veterans that could help push the team towards the playoffs in a competitive Western Conference but nothing more than at best an 8 seed.
In /nba preseason power ranking predictions just 2/29 voters expected the Pelicans to make the playoffs with both votes at the 8 seed. Brandon Ingram had a breakout season for the team, Lonzo Ball improved and star rookie Zion Williamson impressed in his 24 games for the season but it's hard to make an assessment on NOLA. They began the year 6-9 before losing 13 consecutive games. A stretch that they followed up with by playing at a 50 win pace during the middle of the season, before poor play in the bubble saw them miss an opportunity at the playoffs. Personally I'd say the Pelicans only slightly didn't meet expectations since they had a losing record with Williamson in his 24 games and he was so hyped up, but I am open to changing this based on what you guys think.

Didn't Meet Expectations

Philadelphia 76ers WL Record: 48-34.
The Philadelphia 76ers were predicted to win 54 games in the preseason with Bleacher Report expecting them to win as many as 58 games. They were viewed as an elite defensive team with two great young players that would be hungry after a heartbreaking game 7 loss to Toronto the year prior. Players like Al Horford and Tobias Harris were expected to see the team competing for a top 2 seed in the East.
In /nba preseason power ranking predictions All 29 voters expected the 76ers to make the playoffs, with a stunning 28 off them predicting a top 2 seed (12 even predicted the number one record out East). However what happened was a variety of issues from Simmons' poor fit on the team and lack of any improvement offensively, Horford's decline paired with overall inconsistency and poor chemistry from the team. A 6th seed is a fair reflection of a forgettable season for the team that was had an unbelievable ability to dominate at home and play like the worst team in the league on the road.
Houston Rockets WL Record: 50-32.
The Houston Rockets were predicted to win 54 games in the preseason with 538 expecting them to win as many as 57 games. They were viewed as a superstar team with two MVP caliber players, and with their kryptonite Warriors weaker than years gone by, this was seen as Houston’s opportunity to secure a top 2 seed and make a championship run.
In /nba preseason power ranking predictions all 29 voters expected the Rockets to make the playoffs and while they did so, it happened in extremely unconvincing fashion. 13 preseason voters expected Houston to finish with the West's best record but similar to the 76ers, their record was the same as a 6th seed in the conference. Russell Westbrook had two conflicting halves of the season while James Harden put together another great year averaging 34PPG. The post season is where the Rockets should finally be able to put their previous woes behind them and where we can truly assess if the season was successful or not.
Portland Trailblazers WL Record: 39-43.
The Portland Trailblazers were predicted to win 45 games in the preseason with Bleacher Report expecting them to win as many as 47 games. They were viewed as a lock for the playoffs in a competitive Western conference after an impressive WCF appearance in 2019.
In /nba preseason power ranking predictions all 29 voters expected the Blazers to make the playoffs and while they did so in the end, they only finished 8th in the standings with a sub .500 record. Of course it's easy to understand why when you consider that their starting front court in Collins and Nurkic missed almost the entire season. Damian Lillard had a fantastic season posting a career high 30 points and 8 assists per game averages to keep the Blazers afloat in a difficult year. As harsh as it is when you account for injuries, the reality is that Portland were still expected to make playoffs after a WCF appearance without Nurkic the year prior so for the regular season this year the Blazers failed to meet expectations, despite a late season run.
San Antonio Spurs WL Record: 37-45.
The San Antonio Spurs were predicted to win 43 games in the preseason with Bleacher Report expecting them to win as many as 47 games. They were viewed as a weaker team than the squads they had in years prior but were still expected to compete for the playoffs. All though missing the playoffs was more expected than it likely ever has been for the team in the last 20 years.
In /nba preseason power ranking predictions 13/29 voters expected the Spurs to make the playoffs with 12 of those votes as an 8th seed. The Spurs had made the playoffs in 22 consecutive years and after coming off a 48 win season in 2019 they seemed a safe pick. However, the 48 wins also signalled the end of a long streak of 50 win seasons for San Antonio and they were clearly on a decline. There wouldn't be too many times in NBA history that you would call the Spurs season a disappointment but this year they failed to meet expectations. It will be interesting to see what the future of the team looks like going forward.
Atlanta Hawks WL Record: 25-57.
The Atlanta Hawks were predicted to win 33 games in the preseason with Bleacher Report expecting them to win as many as 36 games. They were viewed as a young team that looked like a dark horse to secure a spot in the Eastern conference playoffs after years of limited success.
In /nba preseason power ranking predictions 6/29 voters expected the Hawks to make the playoffs. Unfortunately for the Hawks John Collins' was suspended for 25 games and with Hunter and Reddish struggling early in their rookie year the team never looked like a playoff threat. The biggest shining light for the Hawks in a poor season was no doubt the improvement of Trae Young who averaged a stunning 30/4/9 for the year on 60% TS, culminating in an Allstar selection as a starter. Atlanta made a late season trade for Clint Capela in hopes to fix their poor defence but he didn't get an opportunity to play as the season was shortly suspended. The Hawks this season were disappointing from a win loss perspective but I'm sure the development of Trae this year keeps fans excited for the future.
Chicago Bulls WL Record: 28-54.
The Chicago Bulls were predicted to win 35 games in the preseason with Kevin Pelton’s odds expecting them to win as many as 39 games. They were viewed as a young team that looked like a dark horse to secure a spot in the Eastern conference playoffs after years of limited success.
In /nba preseason power ranking predictions 3/29 voters expected the Bulls to make the playoffs, not a great total but there was some excitement around them. Unfortunately Chicago saw limited growth from their young players with some even taking a step backwards this year which ultimately led to the recent firing of head coach Jim Boylen. Zach LaVine was a rare positive for the Bulls as he averaged 26PPG but the team has a lot to work on and some tough decisions ahead of them going forward.

Completely Didn't Meet Expectations

  • Detroit Pistons WL Record: 25-57.
The Detroit Pistons were predicted to win 38 games in the preseason with Bleacher Report expecting them to win as many as 39 games. They were viewed as a team with a strange mix of stars in Drummond, Griffin and Rose but one that should have been able to finish in the 8/9/10 range of the East standings.
In /nba preseason power ranking predictions 11 out of 29 people, expected the Pistons to make the playoffs. They weren't expected to be winning any playoff series but the bare minimum was a playoff appearance. Detroit however struggled with injuries and poor form all year and finished in absolutely shocking form with losses in 18 of their last 20 games. Christian Wood played well as a starter for the team averaging 22/9/2 on 65% TS in that role but the stats didn't translate to much success. After trading Drummond late in the year the Pistons look set for a long rebuild.
  • Minnesota Timberwolves WL Record: 25-57.
The Minnesota Timberwolves were predicted to win 39 games in the preseason with 538 expecting them to win as many as 44 games. They were viewed as a young team that wouldn’t really achieve a whole lot of success but would at the least be competitive with a star big man on the roster.
In /nba preseason power ranking predictions not a single voter, out of 29 people, expected the Wolves to make the playoffs and for good reason too. The team had no semblance of defensive identity all season long, with the exception of games where Towns was absent, in a worrying sign for a team looking to build around a star player. Malik Beasley flourished after being traded late season but there weren't many other positives for the team. The Wolves could have had a disappointing year by winning 35 odd games but instead were even worse and won had the leagues 3rd worst record in 2019-20.
  • Golden State Warriors WL Record: 19-63.
The Golden State Warriors were predicted to win 49 games in the preseason with Bleacher Report Odds expecting them to win as many as 51 games. They were viewed as a weaker team than years prior following the departure of KD and with Klay’s knee injury but a combination of Curry, D’Lo and Draymond had many believing the team would be a lock for playoffs and a chance to steal a playoff series.
In /nba preseason power ranking predictions all 29 voters expected the Warriors to make the playoffs with 26 of those voters expecting a 5-6-7 seed for the team. Golden State’s season began in shocking fashion through the first 5 games of the year and things just got worse as Curry was sidelined soon with a hand/wrist injury. Draymond Green and D’Angelo Russell struggled to keep the team afloat and the Warriors ended up trading D’Lo late in the season for Andrew Wiggins. It’ll be interesting to see how the team goes next season with a healthy Curry and Klay back in the lineup, but for finishing with the leagues worst record after 5 straight finals appearances there is no denying that the Warriors completely failed to meet preseason expectations.
submitted by NitroXYZ to nba [link] [comments]

Line Movement - What Causes Betting Lines To Move - YouTube Week 9 NFL Live In Game Betting Lines, Odds, Totals and Props  In-Game Betting Live 10 Lines on My Favourite Game  My Favorite Sport Short ... Sports BIT  How Are Betting Lines Created? - YouTube Betting the Middle & Arbitrage Betting - The Ultimate Guide (feat. Kurt Long)

Real-time NFL odds and betting lines. Compare NFL spreads, over/unders and totals for each game. Odds on all upcoming National Football League games. It takes a lot of manpower to create and adjust betting lines on the fly. As such, the live betting menu on most sites is smaller than the regular betting menu. Most sites offer a live betting options for major sports leagues including NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL games. You won’t have to search far and wide to find in-game betting for soccer ... Betting $110 to win $100 is typical in this situation. Denver scored 49 points, and Baltimore scored 27 points. The total score for the game was 76 points (49 + 27). Had someone bet the over on the game, he’d have won. If he’d bet the under, he’d have lost. Here’s another example. In the New England/Buffalo game, the over/under was 51. The very last thing you need to know about NFL betting lines in the over/under totals. In our example, this is listed at 38.5. In our example, this is listed at 38.5. If you bet over, you are wagering that the two teams will score more than 39 points in the game. [Author’s Note: I am not a betting professional. Bet at your own risk. Odds are provided by Fanduel Sportsbook.] Spread: Chiefs by 11.5. The Las Vegas Raiders are a team in the midst of a ...

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Line Movement - What Causes Betting Lines To Move - YouTube

One of the first things you should learn if you are going to be successful at betting is reading the odds of betting correctly. Bet odds are not presented evenly across all settings. NFL Betting Tips and Top Beginners Mistakes in Betting the NFL in our Sports Betting 101 series for the new sports bettor direct from the WagerTalk TV Studio... NFL Wild Card Live In Game Betting Lines, Odds, Totals and Props, 1/5/2019 In-Game Live SportsGrid. ... The guys are betting along with you and will help make the right in-game calls and win you ... In this clip of the show, Teddy & Pauly explain how betting lines are made. They go over the formula and the different factors that come into play when oddsm... Covering the point spreads I like/love for NFL sports betting week 2. Subscribe for more tips, takes and strategy. Betting lines from William Hill Sportsbook...