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(TLDR) Extremely interesting story about beating roulette by tech & math...Back in the 70’s

Extremely interesting story about beating roulette by tech & math...Back in the 70’s
Thought this was very interesting and apropos for the forum
The Eudaemons were a small group headed by graduate physics students J. Doyne Farmer and Norman Packard at the University of California Santa Cruz in the late 1970s. The group's immediate objective was to find a way to beat roulette using a concealed computer, but a loftier objective was to use the money made from roulette to fund a scientific community. The name of the group was inspired by the eudaimonism philosophy.
During a summer the two students started doing their own research on a roulette wheel which they had bought. Using instruments including a camera and an oscilloscope to keep track of the motion of the roulette wheel, they eventually figured out a formula involving trigonometric functions and four variables, among them the period of rotation of the roulette wheel and the period of rotation of the ball around the roulette wheel.
Since the calculations were very complicated, they decided to build a computer customized for the purpose of being fed data about the roulette wheel and the ball and to return a prediction of which of the roulette wheel's octants the ball would fall on. The computer was concealable, designed to be invisible to an onlooker. It was small enough to fit inside a shoe. The data was input by tapping the big toe on a micro-switch in the shoe. Then an electronic signal was relayed to a vibrotactile output system hidden behind the shirt, strapped to the chest, which had three solenoid actuators near the stomach which would indicate by vibrating either which of the eight octants of the roulette wheel to place a bet on, or a ninth possibility: not to place a bet.
It took two years to develop the computerized system. By 1978 it was working and the group went to Las Vegas to make money at it. Eventually the system was split between two persons: an observer and a bettor. The observer would tap input signals with the foot, the bettor would receive output signals underneath his/her shirt. The average profit was 44% for every dollar. However, there were problems: in one case the insulation failed and the bettor received electric shocks from the solenoids. But she kept placing bets, so the observer, who in this case was Farmer, left the table, so that the bettor would be forced to leave as well. Afterwards it turned out that the solenoid had burned a hole into her skin. Some members of the group had already left because of trouble juggling the academic schedule with the Eudaemons, but the burning incident caused the two leaders to disband the group. Collectively they had managed to make about $10,000.
As a science experiment, the group's objective was accomplished: to prove that there was a way of statistically predicting where a ball would fall in a roulette wheel given some input data. This outcome precursed data science and embodied the infancy of predictive analytics
A previous wearable roulette computer had been built and used in a casino by Edward O. Thorp and Claude Shannon in 1960–1961, though it had only been used briefly
Doyne Farmer - While still in graduate school, Farmer and his childhood friend Norman Packard formed a group called Eudaemonic Enterprises. Their goal was to beat the game of roulette and use the proceeds to form a science commune. The word eudaemonia comes from Aristotle and refers to a state of enlightenment derived from a life lived in accordance with reason.
Farmer's shoe computer is currently on loan to the Heinz Nixdorf Museum in Paderborn, Germany
The Eudaemonic Pie display, including Farmer's roulette shoe computer, at the Heinz Nixdorf Museum
They bought a roulette wheel and did an extensive experimental and theoretical study of its physics. To execute their system, they built the first wearable digital computer, at roughly the same time as the first Apple desktop computer. Farmer hand-coded the three-kilobyte program for the computer in machine language. The program included a floating-point package, a sequencer to perform the calculation, and an operating system that functioned with toe inputs and vibrating outputs. The earliest version of the computer was hidden under the armpits, but a later version was concealed in a shoe.
Their scheme took advantage of the fact that typically more than ten seconds elapse from the time the croupier releases the ball until bets are closed. During this time one person measured the position and velocity of the ball and rotor using his big toe to click a switch in his shoe. The computer used this information to predict the likely landing position of the ball. A signal was relayed to a second person, who quickly placed the bets. They made over eleven trips to Las Vegas, Reno and Tahoe, and achieved a 20% advantage over the house, but suffered persistent hardware problems. This combined with their fear of violence at the hands of the casinos, so that they never played for high stakes and failed to realize the large sums they originally dreamed of.
Eudaemons - Wikipedia
submitted by Lester6ClipscCullen to roulette [link] [comments]

📖Extremely interesting story about beating roulette in Vegas with tech & math...Back in the 70’s 🕺🏻

🎰 Extremely interesting story about beating roulette in Vegas by tech & math...Back in the 70’s. 🃏🧮
Thought this was very interesting and useful for the sharks, sharps & whales 🐋
The Eudaemons were a small group headed by graduate physics students J. Doyne Farmer and Norman Packard at the University of California Santa Cruz in the late 1970s. The group's immediate objective was to find a way to beat roulette using a concealed computer, but a loftier objective was to use the money made from roulette to fund a scientific community. The name of the group was inspired by the eudaimonism philosophy.
During a summer the two students started doing their own research on a roulette wheel which they had bought. Using instruments including a camera and an oscilloscope to keep track of the motion of the roulette wheel, they eventually figured out a formula involving trigonometric functions and four variables, among them the period of rotation of the roulette wheel and the period of rotation of the ball around the roulette wheel.
Since the calculations were very complicated, they decided to build a computer customized for the purpose of being fed data about the roulette wheel and the ball and to return a prediction of which of the roulette wheel's octants the ball would fall on. The computer was concealable, designed to be invisible to an onlooker. It was small enough to fit inside a shoe. The data was input by tapping the big toe on a micro-switch in the shoe. Then an electronic signal was relayed to a vibrotactile output system hidden behind the shirt, strapped to the chest, which had three solenoid actuators near the stomach which would indicate by vibrating either which of the eight octants of the roulette wheel to place a bet on, or a ninth possibility: not to place a bet.
It took two years to develop the computerized system. By 1978 it was working and the group went to Las Vegas to make money at it. Eventually the system was split between two persons: an observer and a bettor. The observer would tap input signals with the foot, the bettor would receive output signals underneath his/her shirt. The average profit was 44% for every dollar. However, there were problems: in one case the insulation failed and the bettor received electric shocks from the solenoids. But she kept placing bets, so the observer, who in this case was Farmer, left the table, so that the bettor would be forced to leave as well. Afterwards it turned out that the solenoid had burned a hole into her skin. Some members of the group had already left because of trouble juggling the academic schedule with the Eudaemons, but the burning incident caused the two leaders to disband the group. Collectively they had managed to make about $10,000.
As a science experiment, the group's objective was accomplished: to prove that there was a way of statistically predicting where a ball would fall in a roulette wheel given some input data. This outcome precursed data science and embodied the infancy of predictive analytics
A previous wearable roulette computer had been built and used in a casino by Edward O. Thorp and Claude Shannon in 1960–1961, though it had only been used briefly
Doyne Farmer - While still in graduate school, Farmer and his childhood friend Norman Packard formed a group called Eudaemonic Enterprises. Their goal was to beat the game of roulette and use the proceeds to form a science commune. The word eudaemonia comes from Aristotle and refers to a state of enlightenment derived from a life lived in accordance with reason.
Farmer's shoe computer is currently on loan to the Heinz Nixdorf Museum in Paderborn, Germany
The Eudaemonic Pie display, including Farmer's roulette shoe computer, at the Heinz Nixdorf Museum
They bought a roulette wheel and did an extensive experimental and theoretical study of its physics. To execute their system, they built the first wearable digital computer, at roughly the same time as the first Apple desktop computer. Farmer hand-coded the three-kilobyte program for the computer in machine language. The program included a floating-point package, a sequencer to perform the calculation, and an operating system that functioned with toe inputs and vibrating outputs. The earliest version of the computer was hidden under the armpits, but a later version was concealed in a shoe.
Their scheme took advantage of the fact that typically more than ten seconds elapse from the time the croupier releases the ball until bets are closed. During this time one person measured the position and velocity of the ball and rotor using his big toe to click a switch in his shoe. The computer used this information to predict the likely landing position of the ball. A signal was relayed to a second person, who quickly placed the bets. They made over eleven trips to Las Vegas, Reno and Tahoe, and achieved a 20% advantage over the house, but suffered persistent hardware problems. This combined with their fear of violence at the hands of the casinos, so that they never played for high stakes and failed to realize the large sums they originally dreamed of.
Eudaemons - Wikipedia
submitted by Lester6ClipscCullen to SportsReport [link] [comments]

What a USL D1 league might look like

TL;DR: Man with too much time on his hands goes deep down the rabbit hole on a concept this sub already didn’t seem that enthusiastic about. If you really want to skip ahead, CTRL+F “verdict” and it’ll get you there.
Two days ago, u/MrPhillyj2wns made a post asking whether USL should launch a D1 league in order to compete in Concacaf. From the top voted replies, it appears this made a lot of people very angry and has been widely regarded as a bad move.
But I’ve been at home for eight weeks and I am terribly, terribly bored.
So, I present to you this overview of what the USL pyramid might look like if Jake Edwards got a head of steam and attempted to establish a USSF-sanctioned first division. This is by no means an endorsement of such a proposal or even a suggestion that USL SHOULD do such a thing. It is merely an examination of whether they COULD.
Welcome to the Thunderdome USL Premiership
First, there are some base-level assumptions we must make in this exercise, because it makes me feel more scientific and not like a guy who wrote this on Sunday while watching the Belarusian Premier League (Go BATE Borisov!).
  1. All D1 teams must comply with known USSF requirements for D1 leagues (more on that later).
  2. MLS, not liking this move, will immediately remove all directly-owned affiliate clubs from the USL structure (this does not include hybrid ownerships, like San Antonio FC – NYCFC). This removes all MLS2 teams but will not affect Colorado Springs, Reno, RGVFC and San Antonio.
  3. The USL will attempt to maintain both the USL Championship and USL League One, with an eventual mind toward creating the pro/rel paradise that is promised in Relegations 3:16.
  4. All of my research regarding facility size and ownership net worth is correct – this is probably the biggest leap of faith we have to make, since googling “NAME net worth” and “CITY richest people” doesn’t seem guaranteed to return accurate results.
  5. The most a club can increase its available seating capacity to meet D1 requirements in a current stadium is no more than 1,500 seats (10% of the required 15,000). If they need to add more, they’ll need a new facility.
  6. Let’s pretend that people are VERY willing to sell. It’s commonly acknowledged that the USL is a more financially feasible route to owning a soccer club than in MLS (c.f. MLS-Charlotte’s reported $325 million expansion fee) and the USSF has some very strict requirements for D1 sanctioning. It becomes pretty apparent when googling a lot of team’s owners that this requirement isn’t met, so let’s assume everyone that can’t sells to people who meet the requirements.
(Known) USSF D1 league requirements:
- League must have 12 teams to apply and 14 teams by year three
- Majority owner must have a net worth of $40 million, and the ownership group must have a total net worth of $70 million. The value of an owned stadium is not considered when calculating this value.
- Must have teams located in the Eastern, Central and Pacific time zones
- 75% of league’s teams must be based in markets with at a metro population of at least 1 million people.
- All league stadiums must have a capacity of at least 15,000
The ideal club candidate for the USL Premiership will meet the population and capacity requirements in its current ground, which will have a grass playing surface. Of the USL Championship’s 27 independent/hybrid affiliate clubs, I did not find one club that meets all these criteria as they currently stand.
Regarding turf fields, the USSF does not have a formal policy regarding the ideal playing surface but it is generally acknowledged that grass is superior to turf. 6 of 26 MLS stadiums utilize turf, or roughly 23% of stadiums. We’ll hold a similar restriction for our top flight, so 2-3 of our top flight clubs can have turf fields. Seem fair?
Capacity is going to be the biggest issue, since the disparity between current requirements for the second-tier (5,000) and the first tier (15,000) is a pretty massive gap. Nice club you have there, triple your capacity and you’re onto something. As a result, I have taken the liberty of relocating certain (read: nearly all) clubs to new grounds, trying my utmost to keep those clubs in their current markets and –importantly--, ensure they play on grass surfaces.
So, let’s do a case-by-case evaluation and see if we can put together 12-14 teams that meet the potential requirements, because what else do you have to do?
For each club’s breakdown, anything that represents a chance from what is currently true will be underlined.
Candidate: Birmingham Legion FC
Location (Metro population): Birmingham, Ala. (1,151,801)
Time zone: Central
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Legion Field (FieldTurf, 71,594)
Potential owner: Stephens Family (reported net worth $4 billion)
Notes: Birmingham has a pretty strong candidacy. Having ditched the 5,000-seater BBVA Field for Legion Field, which sits 2.4 miles away, they’ve tapped into the city’s soccer history. Legion Field hosted portions of both the men’s and women’s tournaments at the 1996 Olympics, including a 3-1 U.S. loss to Argentina that saw 83,183 pack the house. The Harbert family seemed like strong ownership contenders, but since the death of matriarch Marguerite Harbert in 2015, it’s unclear where the wealth in the family is concentrated, so the Stephens seem like a better candidate. The only real knock that I can think of is that we really want to avoid having clubs play on turf, so I’d say they’re on the bubble of our platonic ideal USL Prem.
Candidate: Charleston Battery
Location (Metro population): Charleston, S.C. (713,000)
Time zone: Eastern
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Johnson Hagood Stadium (Grass, ~14,700)
Potential owner: Anita Zucker (reported net worth $3 billion)
Notes: Charleston’s candidacy isn’t looking great. Already disadvantaged due to its undersized metro population, a move across the Cooper River to Johnson Hagood Stadium is cutting it close in terms of capacity. The stadium, home to The Citadel’s football team, used to seat 21,000, before 9,300 seats on the eastern grandstand were torn down in 2017 to deal with lead paint that had been used in their construction. Renovation plans include adding 3,000 seats back in, which could hit 15,000 if they bumped it to 3,300, but throw in a required sale by HCFC, LLC (led by content-creation platform founder Rob Salvatore) to chemical magnate Anita Zucker, and you’ll see there’s a lot of ifs and ands in this proposal.
Candidate: Charlotte Independence
Location (Metro population): Charlotte, N.C. (2,569, 213)
Time zone: Eastern
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Jerry Richardson Stadium (Turf, 15,314)
Potential owner: James Goodnight (reported net worth $9.1 billion)
Notes: Charlotte ticks a lot of the boxes. A move from the Sportsplex at Matthews to UNC-Charlotte’s Jerry Richardson stadium meets capacity requirements, but puts them on to the dreaded turf. Regrettably, nearby American Legion Memorial Stadium only seats 10,500, despite a grass playing surface. With a sizeable metro population (sixth-largest in the USL Championship) and a possible owner in software billionaire James Goodnight, you’ve got some options here. The biggest problem likely lies in direct competition for market share against a much better-funded MLS Charlotte side due to join the league in 2021.
Candidate: Hartford Athletic
Location (Metro population): Hartford, Conn. (1,214,295)
Time zone: Eastern
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Pratt & Whitney Stadium (Grass, 38,066)
Potential owner: Ray Dalio (reported net worth $18.4 billion)
Notes: Okay, I cheated a bit here, having to relocate Hartford to Pratt & Whitney Stadium, which is technically in East Hartford, Conn. I don’t know enough about the area to know if there’s some kind of massive beef between the two cities, but the club has history there, having played seven games in 2019 while Dillon Stadium underwent renovations. If the group of local businessmen that currently own the club manage to attract Dalio to the table, we’re on to something.
Candidate: Indy Eleven
Location (Metro population): Indianapolis, Ind. (2,048,703)
Time zone: Eastern
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Lucas Oil Stadium (Turf, 62,421)
Potential owner: Jim Irsay (reported net worth of $3 billion)
Notes: Indy Eleven are a club that are SO CLOSE to being an ideal candidate – if it weren’t for Lucas Oil Stadium’s turf playing surface. Still, there’s a lot to like in this bid. I’m not going to lie, I have no idea what current owner and founder Ersal Ozdemir is worth, but it seems like there might be cause for concern. A sale to Irsay, who also owns the NFL Indianapolis (nee Baltimore) Colts, seems likely to keep the franchise there, rather than make a half-mile move to 14,230 capacity Victory Field where the AAA Indianapolis Indians play and expand from there.
Candidate: Louisville City FC
Location (Metro population): Louisville, Ky. (1,297,310)
Time zone: Eastern
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Lynn Family Stadium (Grass, 14,000, possibly expandable to 20,000)
Potential owner: Wayne Hughes (reported net worth $2.8 billion)
Notes: I’m stretching things a bit here. Lynn Family stadium is currently listed as having 11,700 capacity that’s expandable to 14,000, but they’ve said that the ground could hold as many as 20,000 with additional construction, which might be enough to grant them a temporary waiver from USSF. If the stadium is a no-go, then there’s always Cardinal Stadium, home to the University of Louisville’s football team, which seats 65,000 but is turf. Either way, it seems like a sale to someone like Public Storage founder Wayne Hughes will be necessary to ensure the club has enough capital.
Candidate: Memphis 901 FC
Location (Metro population): Memphis, Tenn. (1,348,260)
Time zone: Central
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Liberty Bowl Stadium (Turf, 58,325)
Potential owner: Fred Smith (reported net worth $3 billion)
Notes: Unfortunately for Memphis, AutoZone Park’s 10,000 seats won’t cut it at the D1 level. With its urban location, it would likely prove tough to renovate, as well. Liberty Bowl Stadium more than meets the need, but will involve the use of the dreaded turf. As far as an owner goes, FedEx founder Fred Smith seems like a good local option.
Candidate: Miami FC, “The”
Location (Metro population): Miami, Fla. (6,158,824)
Time zone: Eastern
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Riccardo Silva Stadium (FieldTurf, 20,000)
Potential owner: Riccardo Silva (reported net worth $1 billion)
Notes: Well, well, well, Silva might get his wish for top-flight soccer, after all. He’s got the money, he’s got the metro, and his ground has the capacity. There is the nagging issue of the turf, though. Hard Rock Stadium might present a solution, including a capacity of 64,767 and a grass playing surface. It is worth noting, however, that this is the first profile where I didn’t have to find a new potential owner for a club.
Candidate: North Carolina FC
Location (Metro population): Durham, N.C. (1,214,516 in The Triangle)
Time zone: Eastern
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Carter-Finley Stadium (Grass/Turf, 57,583)
Potential owner: Steve Malik (precise net worth unknown) / Dennis Gillings (reported net worth of $1.7 billion)
Notes: We have our first “relocation” in North Carolina FC, who were forced to trade Cary’s 10,000-seat WakeMed Soccer Park for Carter-Finley Stadium in Durham, home of the NC State Wolfpack and 57,583 of their closest friends. The move is a whopping 3.1 miles, thanks to the close-knit hub that exists between Cary, Durham and Raleigh. Carter-Finley might be my favorite of the stadium moves in this exercise. The field is grass, but the sidelines are artificial turf. Weird, right? Either way, it was good enough for Juventus to play a friendly against Chivas de Guadalajara there in 2011. Maybe the move would be pushed for by new owner and medical magnate Dennis Gillings, whose British roots might inspire him to get involved in the Beautiful Game. Straight up, though, I couldn’t find a net worth for current owner Steve Malik, though he did sell his company MedFusion for $91 million in 2010, then bought it back for an undisclosed amount and sold it again for $43 million last November. I don’t know if Malik has the juice to meet D1 requirements, but I suspect he’s close.
Candidate: Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Location (Metro population): Pittsburgh, Penn. (2,362,453)
Time zone: Eastern
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Heinz Field (Grass, 64,450)
Potential owner: Henry Hillman (reported net worth $2.5 billion)
Notes: I don’t know a ton about the Riverhounds, but this move in particular feels like depriving a pretty blue-collar club from its roots. Highmark Stadium is a no-go from a seating perspective, but the Steelers’ home stadium at Heinz Field would more than meet the requirements and have a grass surface that was large enough to be sanctioned for a FIFA friendly between the U.S. WNT and Costa Rica in 2015. As for an owner, Tuffy Shallenberger (first ballot owner name HOF) doesn’t seem to fit the USSF bill, but legendary Pittsburgh industrialist Henry Hillman might. I’m sure you’re asking, why not the Rooney Family, if they’ll play at Heinz Field? I’ll tell you: I honestly can’t seem to pin down a value for the family. The Steelers are valued at a little over a billion and rumors persist that Dan Rooney is worth $500 million, but I’m not sure. I guess the Rooneys would work too, but it’s a definite departure from an owner in Shallenberger who was described by one journalist as a guy who “wears boots, jeans, a sweater and a trucker hat.”
Candidate: Saint Louis FC
Location (Metro population): St. Louis, Mo. (2,807,338)
Time zone: Central
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Busch Stadium (Grass, 45,494)
Potential owner: William DeWitt Jr. (reported net worth $4 billion)
Notes: Saint Louis has some weirdness in making the jump to D1. Current CEO Jim Kavanaugh is an owner of the MLS side that will begin play in 2022. The club’s current ground at West Community Stadium isn’t big enough, but perhaps a timely sale to Cardinals owner William DeWitt Jr. could see the club playing games at Busch Stadium, which has a well established history of hosting other sports like hockey, college football and soccer (most recently a U.S. WNT friendly against New Zealand in 2019). The competition with another MLS franchise wouldn’t be ideal, like Charlotte, but with a big enough population and cross marketing from the Cardinals, maybe there’s a winner here. Wacko idea: If Busch doesn’t pan out, send them to The Dome. Sure, it’s a 60k turf closed-in stadium, but we can go for that retro NASL feel and pay homage to our nation’s soccer history.
Candidate: Tampa Bay Rowdies
Location (Metro population): Tampa, Fla. (3,068,511)
Time zone: Eastern
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Raymond James Stadium (Grass, 65,518)
Potential owner: Edward DeBartolo Jr. (reported net worth $3 billion)
Notes: This one makes me sad. Despite having never been there, I see Al Lang Stadium as an iconic part of the Rowdies experience. Current owner Bill Edwards proposed an expansion to 18,000 seats in 2016, but the move seems to have stalled out. Frustrated with the city’s lack of action, Edwards sells to one-time San Francisco 49ers owner Edward DeBartolo Jr., who uses his old NFL connections to secure a cushy lease at the home of the Buccaneers in Ray Jay, the site of a 3-1 thrashing of Antigua and Barbuda during the United States’ 2014 World Cup Qualifying campaign.
Breather. Hey, we finished the Eastern Conference teams. Why are you still reading this? Why am I still writing it? Time is a meaningless construct in 2020 my friends, we are adrift in the void, fueled only by brief flashes of what once was and what may yet still be.
Candidate: Austin Bold FC
Location (Metro population): Austin, Texas (2,168,316)
Time zone: Central
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Darrel K Royal – Texas Memorial Stadium (FieldTurf, 95,594)
Potential owner: Michael Dell (reported net worth of $32.3 billion)
Notes: Anthony Precourt’s Austin FC has some unexpected competition and it comes in the form of tech magnate Michael Dell. Dell, were he to buy the club, would be one of the richest owners on our list and could flash his cash in the new first division. Would he have enough to convince Darrel K Royal – Texas Memorial Stadium (I’m not kidding, that’s its actual name) to go back to a grass surface, like it did from ’96-’08? That’s between Dell and nearly 100,000 UT football fans, but everything can be had for the right price.
Candidate: Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Location (Metro population): Colorado Springs, Colo. (738,939)
Time zone: Mountain
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Falcon Stadium (FieldTurf, 46,692)
Potential owner: Charles Ergen (reported net worth $10.8 billion)
Notes: Welcome to Colorado Springs. We have hurdles. For the first time in 12 candidates, we’re back below the desired 1 million metro population mark. Colorado Springs actually plans to build a $35 million, 8,000 seat venue downtown that will be perfect for soccer, but in our timeline that’s 7,000 seats short. Enter Falcon Stadium, home of the Air Force Academy Falcons football team. Seems perfect except for the turf, right? Well, the tricky thing is that Falcon Stadium is technically on an active military base and is (I believe) government property. Challenges to getting in and out of the ground aside, the military tends to have a pretty grim view of government property being used by for-profit enterprises. Maybe Charles Ergen, founder and chairman of Dish Network, would be able to grease the right wheels, but you can go ahead and throw this into the “doubtful” category. It’s a shame, too. 6,035 feet of elevation is one hell of a home-field advantage.
Candidate: El Paso Locomotive FC
Location: El Paso, Texas
Time zone: Mountain
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Sun Bowl (FieldTurf, 51,500)
Potential owner: Paul Foster (reported net worth $1.7 billion)
Notes: God bless Texas. When compiling this list, I found so many of the theoretical stadium replacements were nearly serviceable by high school football fields. That’s insane, right? Anyway, Locomotive don’t have to settle for one of those, they’ve got the Sun Bowl, which had its capacity reduced in 2001 to a paltry 51,500 (from 52,000) specifically to accommodate soccer. Sure, it’s a turf surface, but what does new owner Paul Foster (who is only the 1,477th wealthiest man in the world, per Forbes) care, he’s got a team in a top league. Side note: Did you know that the Sun Bowl college football game is officially, through sponsorship, the Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl? Why is it not the Frosted Flakes Sun Bowl? Why is the cereal mascot the promotional name of the football game? What are you doing, Kellogg’s?
Candidate: Las Vegas Lights FC
Location: Las Vegas, Nev. (2,227,053)
Time zone: Pacific
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Allegiant Stadium (Grass, 61,000)
Potential owner: Sheldon Adelson (reported net worth $37.7 billion)
Notes: Sin City. You had to know that the club that once signed Freddy Adu because “why not” was going to go all out in our flashy hypothetical proposal. Thanks to my narrative control of this whole thing, they have. Adelson is the second-richest owner in the league and has decided to do everything first class. That includes using the new Raiders stadium in nearby unincorporated Paradise, Nevada, and spending boatloads on high profile transfers. Zlatan is coming back to the U.S., confirmed.
Candidate: New Mexico United
Location: Albuquerque, N.M.
Time zone: Mountain
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Isotopes Park – officially Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park (Grass, 13,500 – 15,000 with expansion)
Potential owner: Maloof Family (reported net worth $1 billion)
Notes: New Mexico from its inception went deep on the community vibe, and I’ve tried to replicate that in this bid. The home field of Rio Grande Cr---I’m not typing out the whole thing—Isotopes Park falls just within the expansion rules we set to make it to 15,000 (weird, right?) and they’ve found a great local ownership group in the Lebanese-American Maloof (formerly Maalouf) family from Las Vegas. The only thing to worry about would be the metro population, but overall, this could be one of the gems of USL Prem.
Candidate: Oklahoma City Energy FC
Location: Oklahoma City, Okla. (1,396,445)
Time zone: Central
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Chickasaw Bricktown Ballpark (Grass, 13,066)
Potential owner: Harold Hamm (reported net worth $14.2 billion)
Notes: There’s a bright golden haze on the meadow and it says it’s time to change stadiums and owners to make it to D1. A sale to oil magnate Harold Hamm would give the club the finances it needs, but Chickasaw Bricktown Ballpark (home of the OKC Dodgers) actually falls outside of the boundary of what would meet capacity if 1,500 seats were added. Could the club pull off a move to Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Oklahoma – home of the Oklahoma Sooners? Maybe, but at 20 miles, this would be a reach.
Candidate: Orange County SC
Location: Irvine, Calif. (3,176, 000 in Orange County)
Time zone: Pacific
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Angels Stadium of Anaheim (Grass, 43,250)
Potential owner: Arte Moreno (reported net worth $3.3 billion)
Notes: You’ll never convince me that Rangers didn’t choose to partner with Orange County based primarily on its name. Either way, a sale to MLB Angels owner Arte Moreno produces a fruitful partnership, with the owner choosing to play his newest club out of the existing Angels stadium in OC. Another baseball conversion, sure, but with a metro population of over 3 million and the closest thing this hypothetical league has to an LA market, who’s complaining?
Candidate: Phoenix Rising FC
Location: Phoenix, Ariz. (4,857,962)
Time zone: Arizona
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): State Farm Stadium (Grass, 63,400)
Potential owner: Ernest Garcia II (reported net worth $5.7 billion)
Notes: We’re keeping it local with new owner and used car guru Ernest Garcia II. His dad owned a liquor store and he dropped out of college, which is making me feel amazing about my life choices right now. Casino Arizona Field is great, but State Farm Stadium is a grass surface that hosted the 2019 Gold Cup semifinal, so it’s a clear winner. Throw in Phoenix’s massive metro population and this one looks like a lock.
Candidate: Reno 1868 FC
Location: Reno, Nev. (425,417)
Time zone: Pacific
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Mackay Stadium (FieldTurf, 30,000)
Potential owner: Nancy Walton Laurie (reported net worth $7.1 billion)
Notes: The Biggest Little City on Earth has some serious barriers to overcome, thanks to its low metro population. A sale to Walmart heiress Nancy Walton Laurie and 1.6 mile-move to Mackay Stadium to split space with the University of Nevada, Reno makes this bid competitive, but the turf surface is another knock against it.
Candidate: Rio Grande Valley FC
Location: Edinburg, Texas (900,304)
Time zone: Central
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): McAllen Memorial Stadium (FieldTurf, 13,500 – 15,000 with expansion)
Potential owner: Alice Louise Walton (reported net worth $45 billion)
Notes: Yes, I have a second straight Walmart heiress on the list. She was the first thing that popped up when I googled “McAllen Texas richest people.” The family rivalry has spurred Walton to buy a club as well, moving them 10 miles to McAllen Memorial Stadium which, as I alluded to earlier, is a straight up high school football stadium with a full color scoreboard. Toss in an additional 1,500 seats and you’ve met the minimum, despite the turf playing surface.
Candidate: San Antonio FC
Location: San Antonio, Texas (2,550,960)
Time zone: Central
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Alamodome (FieldTurf, 64,000)
Potential owner: Red McCombs (reported net worth $1.6 billion)
Notes: I wanted to keep SAFC in the Spurs family, since the franchise is valued at $1.8 billion. That said, I didn’t let the Rooneys own the Riverhounds based on the Steelers’ value and it felt wrong to change the rules, so bring on Clear Channel co-founder Red McCombs. Toyota Field isn’t viable in the first division, but for the Alamodome, which was built in 1993 in hopes of attracting an NFL franchise (and never did), San Antonio can finally claim having *a* national football league team in its town (contingent on your definition of football). Now if only we could do something about that turf…
Candidate: San Diego Loyal SC
Location: San Diego, Calif. (3,317,749)
Time zone: Pacific
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): SDCCU Stadium (formerly Qualcomm) (Grass, 70,561)
Potential owner: Phil Mickelson (reported net worth $91 million)
Notes: Yes, golf’s Phil Mickelson. The existing ownership group didn’t seem to have the wherewithal to meet requirements, and Phil seemed to slot right in. As an athlete himself, he might be interesting in the new challenges of a top flight soccer team. Toss in a move to the former home of the chargers and you might have a basis for tremendous community support.
Candidate: FC Tulsa
Location: Tulsa, Okla. (991,561)
Time zone: Central
Stadium (playing surface, capacity): Skelly Field at H.A. Chapman Stadium (FieldTurf, 30,000)
Potential owner: George Kaiser ($10 billion)
Notes: I’m a fan of FC Tulsa’s rebrand, but if they want to make the first division, more changes are necessary. A sale to Tulsa native and one of the 100 richest men in the world George Kaiser means that funding is guaranteed. A move to Chapman Stadium would provide the necessary seats, despite the turf field. While the undersize population might be an issue at first glance, it’s hard to imagine U.S. Soccer not granting a waiver over a less than a 10k miss from the mark.
And that’s it! You made it. Those are all of the independent/hybrid affiliates in the USL Championship, which means that it’s time for our…
VERDICT: As an expert who has studied this issue for almost an entire day now, I am prepared to pronounce which USL Championships could be most ‘ready” for a jump to the USL Prem. A reminder that of the 27 clubs surveyed, 0 of them met our ideal criteria (proper ownership $, metro population, 15,000+ stadium with grass field).
Two of them, however, met almost all of those criteria: Indy Eleven and Miami FC. Those two clubs may use up two of our three available turf fields right from the outset, but the other factors they hit (particularly Silva’s ownership of Miami) makes them difficult, if not impossible to ignore for the top flight.
But who fill in the rest of the slots? Meet the entire 14-team USL Premier League:
Hartford Athletic
Indy Eleven
Louisville City FC
Miami FC
North Carolina FC
Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Tampa Bay Rowdies
Saint Louis FC
San Antonio FC
New Mexico United
Phoenix Rising FC
Las Vegas Lights FC
Orange County SC
San Diego Loyal SC
Now, I shall provide my expert rationale for each club’s inclusion/exclusion, which can be roughly broken down into four categories.
Firm “yes”
Hartford Athletic: It’s a good market size with a solid stadium. With a decent investor and good community support, you’ve got potential here.
Indy Eleven: The turf at Lucas Oil Stadium is no reason to turn down a 62,421 venue and a metro population of over 2 million.
Louisville City FC: Why doesn’t the 2017 & 2018 USL Cup champion deserve a crack at the top flight? They have the market size, and with a bit of expansion have the stadium at their own SSS. LCFC, you’re in.
Miami FC, “The”: Our other blue-chip recruit on the basis of ownership value, market size and stadium capacity. Yes, that field is turf, but how could you snub Silva’s chance to claim victory as the first division 1 club soccer team to play in Miami?
Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC: Pittsburgh sacrificed a lot to be here (according to my arbitrary calculations). Their market size and the potential boon of soccer at Heinz Field is an important inclusion to the league.
Saint Louis FC: Willie hears your “Busch League” jokes, Willie don’t care. A huge market size, combined with the absence of an NFL franchise creates opportunity. Competition with the MLS side, sure, but St. Louis has serious soccer history and we’re willing to bet it can support two clubs.
Tampa Bay Rowdies: With a huge population and a massive stadium waiting nearby, Tampa Bay seems like too good of an opportunity to pass up for the USL Prem.
Las Vegas Lights FC: Ostentatious, massive and well-financed, Las Vegas Lights FC is everything that the USL Premier League would need to assert that it didn’t intend to play second fiddle to MLS. Players will need to be kept on a short leash, but this is a hard market to pass up on.
Phoenix Rising FC: Huge population, big grass field available nearby and a solid history of success in recent years. No brainer.
San Diego Loyal SC: New club? Yes, massive population in a market that recently lost an absolutely huge sports presence? Also yes. This could be the USL Prem’s Seattle.
Cautious “yes”
New Mexico United: You have to take a chance on New Mexico United. The club set the league on fire with its social media presence and its weight in the community when it entered the league last season. The market may be slightly under USSF’s desired 1 million, but fervent support (and the ability to continue to use Isotopes Park) shouldn’t be discounted.
North Carolina FC: Carter-Finley’s mixed grass/turf surface is a barrier, to be sure, but the 57,000+ seats it offers (and being enough to offset other fully-turf offerings) is enough to put it in the black.
Orange County SC: It’s a top-tier club playing in a MLB stadium. I know it seems unlikely that USSF would approve something like that, but believe me when I say “it could happen.” Orange County is a massive market and California likely needs two clubs in the top flight.
San Antonio FC: Our third and only voluntary inclusion to the turf fields in the first division, we’re counting on San Antonio’s size and massive potential stadium to see it through.
Cautious “no”
Birmingham Legion FC: The town has solid soccer history and a huge potential venue, but the turf playing surface puts it on the outside looking in.
Memphis 901 FC: Like Birmingham, not much to dislike here outside of the turf playing surface at the larger playing venue.
Austin Bold FC: See the other two above.
FC Tulsa: Everything’s just a little bit off with this one. Market’s slightly too small, stadium has turf. Just not enough to put it over the top.
Firm “no”
Charleston Battery: Small metro and a small potential new stadium? It’s tough to say yes to the risk.
Charlotte Independence: A small new stadium and the possibility of having to compete with an organization that just paid over $300 million to join MLS means it’s best for this club to remain in the USL Championship.
Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC: When a club’s best chance to meet a capacity requirement is to host games at a venue controlled by the military, that doesn’t speak well to a club’s chances.
El Paso Locomotive FC: An undersized market and a turf field that meets capacity requirements is the death knell for this one.
Oklahoma City Energy FC: Having to expand a baseball field to meet requirements is a bad start. Having to potentially play 20 miles away from your main market is even worse.
Reno 1868 FC: Population nearly a half-million short of the federation’s requirements AND a turf field at the hypothetical new stadium makes impossible to say yes to this bid.
Rio Grande Valley FC: All the seat expansions in the world can’t hide the fact that McAllen Memorial Stadium is a high school stadium through and through.
Here’s who’s left in the 11-team Championship:
Birmingham Legion FC
Charleston Battery
Charlotte Independence
Memphis 901 FC
Austin Bold FC
Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
El Paso Locomotive FC
Oklahoma City Energy FC
Reno 1868 FC
Rio Grande Valley FC
FC Tulsa
With MLS folding the six affiliates it has in USL League One, the league is a little bit thin (especially considering USSF’s requirements for 8 teams for lower level leagues), but seems definitely able to expand up to the necessary numbers with Edwards’ allusions to five new additions this year:
Chattanooga Red Wolves SC
Forward Madison FC
Greenville Triumph SC
Union Omaha
Richmond Kickers
South Georgia Tormenta
FC Tucson
Format of Assorted Leagues – This (like everything in this post) is pure conjecture on my part, but here are my thoughts on how these leagues might function in a first year while waiting for additional expansion.
USL Premier – We’ll steal from the 12-team Scottish Premiership. Each club plays the other 11 clubs 3 times, with either one or two home matches against each side. When each club has played 33 matches, the top six and bottom six separate, with every club playing an additional five matches (against each other team in its group). The top club wins the league. The bottom club is automatically relegated. The second-bottom club will enter a two-legged playoff against someone (see below) from the championship playoffs.
USL Championship -- 11 clubs is a challenge to schedule for. How about every club plays everyone else three times (either one or two home matches against each side)? Top four clubs make the playoffs, which are decided by two-legged playoffs. The winner automatically goes up. I need feedback on the second part – is it better to have the runner-up from the playoffs face the second-bottom club from the Premiership, or should the winner of the third-place match-up get the chance to face them to keep drama going in both playoff series? As for relegation, we can clearly only send down the last place club while the third division is so small.
USL League One – While the league is so small, it doesn’t seem reasonable to have the clubs play as many matches as the higher divisions. Each club could play the other six clubs four times – twice at home and twice away – for a very equitable 24-match regular season, which would help restrict costs and still provide a chance to determine a clear winner. Whoever finishes top of the table goes up.
And there you have it, a hypothetical look at how the USL could build a D1 league right now. All it would take is a new stadium for almost the entire league and new owners for all but one of the 27 clubs, who wouldn’t feel that their property would be massively devalued if they got relegated.
Well that’s our show. I’m curious to see what you think of all of this, especially anything that you think I may have overlooked (I’m sure there’s plenty). Anyway, I hope you’re all staying safe and well.
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BAT – A Wonderful Company at A Wonderful Price (8x PE, 15% dividend yield, 100% ROE)

 
In 1987, Buffett famously stated, "I'll tell you why I like the cigarette business. It costs a penny to make. Sell it for a dollar. It's addictive. And there's fantastic brand loyalty."
“The best business to own is one that over an extended period of time can employ large amounts of incremental capital at very high rates of return.” – Warren Buffett
“Invest at the point of maximum pessimism.” – John Templeton
 
Warren Buffett’s best winners have always been stocks which were bought during times of maximum pessimism. GEICO was bought on the brink of bankruptcy. AMEX was bought during the Salad Oil Scandal. Goldman Sachs was also bought with bankruptcy looming. Wells Fargo was a bank with a largely residential loan book bought during a housing crisis. Coca-Cola was bought at a time of massive overdiversification. And so on and so forth.
It’s not often that one has the opportunity to put into practice the all-encompassing philosophy of buy low, sell high. But even when that opportunity rears its ugly head, it’s the rare investor who has the aptitude and the stomach to back up the truck. Thankfully, these opportunities do exist, but it takes a keen eye to discern the difference between a falling knife and a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.
 
Overview
British American Tobacco (BAT) Malaysia is one such example. Currently trading at just 8x PE, sporting a 100% ROE, and giving a 15% dividend yield, it’s hard not to salivate a little at the financial statistics. But why is such a high ROI stock – a cigarette company no less – trading at such awfully low valuations?
First, some history. BAT Malaysia is the largest cigarette company in the country, with a roughly 50% legal market share and 12% total industry market share. If you’re observant, you’ll notice that Malaysia’s illegal cigarette market share takes up a whopping 65% share of the pie. This was largely due to the massive excise duty (i.e. sin tax) hike in 2015, which brought illegal market share from a reasonable 33% before the hike to 65% and rising today.
As a result, BAT Malaysia has suffered massive share price declines, with the share price falling by 85% in the past 5 years (from RM 60 in 2015) and 70% in the past 12 months alone (from RM 37 in early-2019). This was largely due to revenue declines of nearly 20% and earnings decline of 40% over the past 3 years, with a corresponding shortfall in dividends (the company has a 90% dividend policy). ROE has also fallen from approximately 200% to around 100% today.
Thus, it’s not surprising that the stock has taken such a beating. Indeed, over the past two weeks alone the stock price has fallen by about 30%. But is investing in it now simply trying to catch a falling knife?
 
Business Narrative
The source of the problem can largely be traced back to the sin tax hike in 2015, which brought illegal cigarette market share from 33% to 65% over the past 5 years. The Malaysian government has not been very accommodative to local industry players, rebuffing efforts to reduce the sin tax and dragging its feet when it comes to the enforcement of existing laws and the introduction of new ones. The local Customs department, working together with the police, has had some success in recent years tackling the illegal cigarette cartel – arresting the decline in legal market share from 20%-30% annually to just above 10% in the past year – but efforts are largely seen as too little, too late. On top of that, the illegal vaping scene has blossomed in Malaysia, with nicotine-related products claiming up to 10% of total industry market share.
This backdrop has inspired analysts to impose doomsday scenarios for the legal industry players (i.e. BAT, PMI & JTI), according present values to the companies which reflect a resumption of historical revenue and market share declines. Indeed, when parsing the financial statements of BAT, it’s not impossible to forecast revenues declining to a point where they fall below operating costs (i.e. EBITDA of zero), rendering the equity essentially worthless valuation-wise.
The main reason for the government’s lack of progress is bureaucracy. Different governmental ministries have drawn different interpretations of their legal jurisdiction regarding the matter, and thus shuffle the responsibility of arresting the illegal trade to their peers. For instance, the Ministry of Health (MOH) has stated that it has no authority to enforce legislation against illegal cigarettes, while the Customs department disagrees and says it is the MOH’s prerogative to clamp down on illegal cigarette packets which don’t portray mandatory and unsightly health warnings (illegal cigarette packets tend not to include them). As a result of the red tape, there has been little progress on the front lines, and legal industry players are lesser of for it.
BAT and JTI (the two largest cigarette players) have resorted to shutting down their manufacturing operations and implementing an importation business model, where legal cigarettes are imported from Indonesia into the country to be sold. BAT has also gone through one round of layoffs last year, with a second round expected in 2020.
 
Financials
As alluded to earlier, revenues have declined by 20% over the past 3 years while net profit has declined by 40%. This was surprisingly not due to a contraction of Gross Margin (which you’d expect as costs go up when switching from a manufacturing model to an importation model), but largely as a result of revenues falling while operating costs remain the same. This can be seen in the Operating Margin falling from a high of 24% in 17Q3 to 18% in 19Q3, and net margin contracting from 18% in 17Q3 to 13% in 19Q3.
On the balance sheet side, things look much rosier. Intangibles take up the lion’s share of assets (40%), while Inventories and Receivables have declined slightly in line with the fall in Revenue. Net cash is negative owing to a revolving credit facility which the company has drawn presumably for tax reasons. The debt is current in nature and can be paid back in full with 2 years of Free Cash Flow. The company doesn’t have much fixed assets remaining following the closure of its manufacturing plant, indicating that liquidation value (approximately zero) falls far short of market value. Current ratio is reasonable at 0.8x. Share capital has not changed for at least 3 years.
Receivable days and Inventory days have respectively increased by roughly 50% over the last 3 years – indicating a struggling business which is facing business challenges from its illegal brethren. Payable days have remained static over the same time period. As a result, Cash Conversion Cycle stands at 79 days, up by double from 33 days in 2018.
Cash flow is still stable, with cash receipts approximating revenues. Free Cash Flow is almost equal to Operating Cash Flow, exemplifying the asset-light nature of the current business. The company pays out the entirety of its FCF as dividends (and then some), leading to a dividend yield of 15% at the current share price and a 118% dividend payout ratio.
 
Risks
The risks are apparent. If the government doesn’t do something about the illegal trade and allows it to run rampant, it’s possible that illegal market share increases from here and revenues continue to decline. In the worst-case scenario, it’s not hard to envision revenues falling below operating costs and EBITDA reaching zero, implying the shares are worthless and that dividends will be cut or even stopped entirely.
The current share price of 8x PE (RM 10.00) reflects this doomsday view. The market is basically pricing in declining earnings growth into perpetuity and giving no stock to a potential turnaround. Government intervention to address the illegal trade is widely perceived as sorely lacking and possibly not existing, with analysts imputing revenue declines of up to 30% a year into their models. Share price targets range from RM 11 – RM 15, although the share price has fallen by some 20% since the last revision of analyst reports. All in all, it seems like bad news for BAT.
 
Opportunities
The opportunities for BAT, while less apparent, do exist. For one, the government could by some miracle successfully enforce existing laws and put the brakes on illegal trade – it has already slowed the latter’s advance by some 50% since the sin tax hike. Alternatively, the government could recognize the disadvantages of the narrowing tax base from legal cigarettes and decide to reverse or reduce the sin tax, leading to a reclaiming of legal market share by industry players to previous highs. By some back-of-the-envelope calculations, if legal market share rises to just half of their historical levels, BAT’s earnings and share price could double from here. PE ratios would also expand in such a scenario.
BAT’s parent company in London could also decide to acquire the Malaysian subsidiary given the depressed prices. A fair market price given the circumstances would be roughly 15x PE, which assuming earnings continue to decline by 30% from today, would put the acquisition price at around 120-130% from current share prices.
BAT has also been experimenting with nicotine-related products, such as the Heat-Not-Burn (HNB) device known as Glo (PMI has a branded competitor known as IQOS). Both have received glowing reviews from former cigarette users and is expected to help the companies transition into the post-smoking era (i.e. 20-30 years from now). So far, Glo has developed a 1% total industry market share in Malaysia despite only being launched 2 years ago, showcasing its popularity and potential success.
Finally, the government is preparing the release of new legislation regarding vaping, which is due to see light by mid-2020. While legalization is still not guaranteed, government officials have publicly admitted the difficulty of enforcing laws if a vaping ban were to be instituted. If vaping is legalized, the legal industry could see a 10% increase in market share overnight as they introduce their own products to supplement the demand for currently illegal products.
 
Risk : Reward
In my opinion, current share prices have priced in all the risks while discounting all the opportunities. Even assuming earnings decline at an average annual rate of 10% into perpetuity, it would take just ten years to reclaim your initial investment. This is assuming illegal market share continues its rise unabated and legal market share never sees the light of day again. Keep in mind that the company has a 90% dividend payout policy, and has kept this rate despite recent struggles in its business, so you’d get a return of capital regardless of the share price performance.
In this worst-case scenario, the parent company would either push for an acquisition or liquidate the Malaysian operations. An acquisition at fire-sale prices would probably yield at least 5x PE, while a liquidation would yield nothing given the current ratio of 0.8x. The latter is highly unlikely because it would mean that BAT ceases to have a presence in Malaysia completely, a growing South East Asian nation with GDP growth of 4-5% and potentially bright future. Hence, given the probabilities and an estimate of expected value, you’d already come out on top at the current PE of 8x.
What about the alternative? Before we get into the valuation from an opportunity set perspective, let us consider BAT’s business model. As Buffett says, this is a company with unit economics of a penny per cigarette, selling them at a dollar per cigarette, fantastic brand loyalty and a captive audience. Imagine if you could have owned Altria in the USA in the 1970’s. Today, you’d own Altria, Kraft Heinz, PMI and a smattering of profitable businesses around the world. While I don’t mean to draw a direct comparison between BAT Malaysia today and Altria USA of the 70’s, it’s not hard to imagine a similarly wonderful future for a company with such an attractive business model.
As far as economic moats are concerned, the cigarette business is probably one of the few businesses you can say will be around in another 20-30 years. Sure, they’re facing headwinds in the form of a burgeoning illegal cigarette trade today, but who says they will still be facing the same demons 10 years from now, or even 5 years? If there’s one thing for certain, it’s that the business environment is fluid – and chances are good that things won’t remain the same as today, whatever they may be.
 
A Reasonable Bull-Case Scenario Valuation
Let’s put the humdrums aside for a moment and imagine a brighter future for BAT. What would this future look like? For one, it’s possible that within the next 5 years the government realizes it can’t contain the illegal cigarette problem and decide to reduce the sin tax to previous levels. The wider tax base resulting from such a move would result in the same absolute amount in taxes even at lower tax rates – so there is no financial disincentive not to do so – while at the same time reducing the illegal market share. If legal market share even reclaims half of their former levels, the share price of BAT could double from today.
Furthermore, what’s stopping BAT from resuming earnings growth, assuming the business environment recovers? Even if earnings grow by just equal to GDP growth (i.e. 4-5% a year), it would justify a 15x PE at the minimum considering a long-time horizon of 20-30 years. Combine a doubling of earnings with a 15x PE, and you’re looking at a potential quadrupling (4x) of the current share price.
 
A Best-Case Scenario Valuation
If BAT reclaims its former glory and returns to its historical market capitalization of RM 18 billion, we’re talking about a 600% increase in share price.
That’s just for the next ten years. What about dividends beyond that? Let’s imagine the best possible scenario for BAT. Assume for awhile that you’re planning to hold BAT for the next 30 years. Assume also that in ten years’ time, BAT’s share price skyrockets to 600% of current levels, and then grows earnings by 4% a year into perpetuity and pays out 90% of earnings at dividends. Account for 3% inflation and zero percent cost of capital (i.e. growth funded from retained earnings). By the end of year 30, you’d end up with 27x your initial investment, or 2700% of your capital. That’s a 12% CAGR.
In other words, a $40,000 investment in BAT today could potentially yield a million dollars in 30 year’s time. And that’s with reasonable assumptions. Tweak the numbers further and you’ll could potentially reach Buffett-like returns.
 
Conclusion
To sum things up, it appears that current share prices already impute the worst-case scenario, while the best-case scenario is a 600% capital appreciation potential in ten years, or 2700% over 30 years. Giving a margin of safety, let’s dial the ten-year return of 600% down by 50% - we still get a 300% reward scenario. That’s a 12% CAGR over ten years. Not too shabby.
Assuming 50% downside from today’s prices, the upside-to-downside ratio at 300% upside would still be a healthy 1:6. Now that’s a margin of safety.
If you believe that BAT has no future in Malaysia and will ultimately be acquired or liquidated, expect share prices to fall by up to 50% from here. If you expect that the legal industry will recover to former highs and that BAT is well-positioned as the largest cigarette player in an ASEAN country with 4% GDP growth (alongside Vietnam, Singapore, and Indonesia), you can expect share prices to rise by at least 300% over the next 10 years.
More realistically, share prices will fluctuate by 20% from current levels both to the upside and downside over the next year or so. If you can stomach that kind of volatility, BAT makes for a wonderful risk-reward component of your hopefully diversified emerging market portfolio.
 
A Value Investor’s Perspective
As mentioned above, Warren Buffett has a history of buying companies for pennies on the dollar when the share price reflects maximum pessimism. This does not mean to dive blindly into freefalling stocks which you do not understand. It does mean that you should do your homework, and when you spot an attractive risk:reward ratio in stocks where others are running for the exits, you should be comfortable holding a large position.
Buying a leading cigarette company in its market while it’s beaten down represents one of the most potentially profitable investments imaginable. For reference, take a look at Altria. If you had bought $1,000 worth of shares in Altria in 1970, and reinvested all the dividends, you would be sitting on a fortune worth $5 million by today. That’s an astounding 18% CAGR over an extraordinarily long period of 50 years. Can BAT Malaysia repeat this tier of performance? Probably not, but you don’t need to in order to make a satisfying profit from it.
Buffett espouses thinking long-term when it comes to investing. Think about the long-term when it comes to BAT Malaysia. Is it likely that illegal cigarette’s share of the market will remain elevated at 65% or above for the next 20 years continually? If I was a betting man, I’d wager that it won’t. More likely than not, some kind of unforeseen development will unfold which will bring market share back into the folds of the legal industry – it could be vaping, HNB products, a newly yet unrevealed form of nicotine-device, or even an evolution in the way smokers think. What can be relied on however is that in 20 years smokers will still continue to view nicotine, and by extension smoking-related products, as a form of entertainment and relaxation.
Then there’s the dividends. The dividend yield on one share of Altria bought in the 1990’s held until today would exceed 30%. This is because the dividends have grown over the years in tandem with earnings growth. Extrapolate that to BAT Malaysia, which currently has a dividend yield of 15%. Assuming an average of 4% earnings growth going forward, that dividend yield would grow to just about 45% in 30 years. That’s the power of compounding.
Buffett also champions the idea of owning companies with fortress economic moats. Some of the companies which he owns have such moats, including Coca-Cola, Wells Fargo, GEICO, American Express, etc. It’s hard to argue that BAT Malaysia doesn’t have such a moat. Even in such trying times where revenues have contracted by 20%, it still sports a high-flying ROE of 100%, and stable gross margins of 30%. I would go so far as to compare BAT Malaysia today to a Coca-Cola or American Express when Buffett bought them during times of pessimism.
Think about the future of BAT in 10 years, or 20 years’ time. It’s likely that it will have overcome the temporary hurdles which it faces today by then and resume earning high returns on significant capital invested over a long period of time. This is truly a compounding machine if there ever was one. Or as the title suggests, a wonderful company trading at a wonderful price.
Remember that Buffett’s best buys in the public markets have all been investments made during trying times, such as what BAT is facing today. AMEX could have gone bankrupt over the Salad Oil Scandal. GEICO was literally months away from being unable to service its insurance liabilities. Goldman Sachs was teetering on the brink of financial collapse under the heavy weight of subprime mortgage obligations. Coca-Cola was not the company it is today – it was an overburdened, overdiversified conglomerate with little growth outlook. Wells Fargo was staring at a huge, unserviceable loan book immediately following the Californian earthquakes given its significant residential exposure. It’s definitely nice to pay fair prices for wonderful companies, but it’s even better to be able to pay wonderful prices for wonderful companies.
 
In times like these, it pays to reflect on some words of wisdom for guidance:
Buy when there’s blood in the streets.
Be greedy when others are fearful.
In the short-term, the market is a voting machine; in the long-term, it is a weighing machine.
Price is what you pay, value is what you get.
It is far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price, than a fair company at a wonderful price.
Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble.
 
May the investing odds be ever in your favor!
 
Stock code: 4162.KL Stock name: British American Tobacco (Malaysia) Berhad Financial information and financial reports: https://www.malaysiastock.biz/Corporate-Infomation.aspx?securityCode=4162
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BAT – A Wonderful Company at A Wonderful Price (8x PE, 15% dividend yield, 100% ROE)

 
In 1987, Buffett famously stated, "I'll tell you why I like the cigarette business. It costs a penny to make. Sell it for a dollar. It's addictive. And there's fantastic brand loyalty."
“The best business to own is one that over an extended period of time can employ large amounts of incremental capital at very high rates of return.” – Warren Buffett
“Invest at the point of maximum pessimism.” – John Templeton
 
Warren Buffett’s best winners have always been stocks which were bought during times of maximum pessimism. GEICO was bought on the brink of bankruptcy. AMEX was bought during the Salad Oil Scandal. Goldman Sachs was also bought with bankruptcy looming. Wells Fargo was a bank with a largely residential loan book bought during a housing crisis. Coca-Cola was bought at a time of massive overdiversification. And so on and so forth.
It’s not often that one has the opportunity to put into practice the all-encompassing philosophy of buy low, sell high. But even when that opportunity rears its ugly head, it’s the rare investor who has the aptitude and the stomach to back up the truck. Thankfully, these opportunities do exist, but it takes a keen eye to discern the difference between a falling knife and a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.
 
Overview
British American Tobacco (BAT) Malaysia is one such example. Currently trading at just 8x PE, sporting a 100% ROE, and giving a 15% dividend yield, it’s hard not to salivate a little at the financial statistics. But why is such a high ROI stock – a cigarette company no less – trading at such awfully low valuations?
First, some history. BAT Malaysia is the largest cigarette company in the country, with a roughly 50% legal market share and 12% total industry market share. If you’re observant, you’ll notice that Malaysia’s illegal cigarette market share takes up a whopping 65% share of the pie. This was largely due to the massive excise duty (i.e. sin tax) hike in 2015, which brought illegal market share from a reasonable 33% before the hike to 65% and rising today.
As a result, BAT Malaysia has suffered massive share price declines, with the share price falling by 85% in the past 5 years (from RM 60 in 2015) and 70% in the past 12 months alone (from RM 37 in early-2019). This was largely due to revenue declines of nearly 20% and earnings decline of 40% over the past 3 years, with a corresponding shortfall in dividends (the company has a 90% dividend policy). ROE has also fallen from approximately 200% to around 100% today.
Thus, it’s not surprising that the stock has taken such a beating. Indeed, over the past two weeks alone the stock price has fallen by about 30%. But is investing in it now simply trying to catch a falling knife?
 
Business Narrative
The source of the problem can largely be traced back to the sin tax hike in 2015, which brought illegal cigarette market share from 33% to 65% over the past 5 years. The Malaysian government has not been very accommodative to local industry players, rebuffing efforts to reduce the sin tax and dragging its feet when it comes to the enforcement of existing laws and the introduction of new ones. The local Customs department, working together with the police, has had some success in recent years tackling the illegal cigarette cartel – arresting the decline in legal market share from 20%-30% annually to just above 10% in the past year – but efforts are largely seen as too little, too late. On top of that, the illegal vaping scene has blossomed in Malaysia, with nicotine-related products claiming up to 10% of total industry market share.
This backdrop has inspired analysts to impose doomsday scenarios for the legal industry players (i.e. BAT, PMI & JTI), according present values to the companies which reflect a resumption of historical revenue and market share declines. Indeed, when parsing the financial statements of BAT, it’s not impossible to forecast revenues declining to a point where they fall below operating costs (i.e. EBITDA of zero), rendering the equity essentially worthless valuation-wise.
The main reason for the government’s lack of progress is bureaucracy. Different governmental ministries have drawn different interpretations of their legal jurisdiction regarding the matter, and thus shuffle the responsibility of arresting the illegal trade to their peers. For instance, the Ministry of Health (MOH) has stated that it has no authority to enforce legislation against illegal cigarettes, while the Customs department disagrees and says it is the MOH’s prerogative to clamp down on illegal cigarette packets which don’t portray mandatory and unsightly health warnings (illegal cigarette packets tend not to include them). As a result of the red tape, there has been little progress on the front lines, and legal industry players are lesser of for it.
BAT and JTI (the two largest cigarette players) have resorted to shutting down their manufacturing operations and implementing an importation business model, where legal cigarettes are imported from Indonesia into the country to be sold. BAT has also gone through one round of layoffs last year, with a second round expected in 2020.
 
Financials
As alluded to earlier, revenues have declined by 20% over the past 3 years while net profit has declined by 40%. This was surprisingly not due to a contraction of Gross Margin (which you’d expect as costs go up when switching from a manufacturing model to an importation model), but largely as a result of revenues falling while operating costs remain the same. This can be seen in the Operating Margin falling from a high of 24% in 17Q3 to 18% in 19Q3, and net margin contracting from 18% in 17Q3 to 13% in 19Q3.
On the balance sheet side, things look much rosier. Intangibles take up the lion’s share of assets (40%), while Inventories and Receivables have declined slightly in line with the fall in Revenue. Net cash is negative owing to a revolving credit facility which the company has drawn presumably for tax reasons. The debt is current in nature and can be paid back in full with 2 years of Free Cash Flow. The company doesn’t have much fixed assets remaining following the closure of its manufacturing plant, indicating that liquidation value (approximately zero) falls far short of market value. Current ratio is reasonable at 0.8x. Share capital has not changed for at least 3 years.
Receivable days and Inventory days have respectively increased by roughly 50% over the last 3 years – indicating a struggling business which is facing business challenges from its illegal brethren. Payable days have remained static over the same time period. As a result, Cash Conversion Cycle stands at 79 days, up by double from 33 days in 2018.
Cash flow is still stable, with cash receipts approximating revenues. Free Cash Flow is almost equal to Operating Cash Flow, exemplifying the asset-light nature of the current business. The company pays out the entirety of its FCF as dividends (and then some), leading to a dividend yield of 15% at the current share price and a 118% dividend payout ratio.
 
Risks
The risks are apparent. If the government doesn’t do something about the illegal trade and allows it to run rampant, it’s possible that illegal market share increases from here and revenues continue to decline. In the worst-case scenario, it’s not hard to envision revenues falling below operating costs and EBITDA reaching zero, implying the shares are worthless and that dividends will be cut or even stopped entirely.
The current share price of 8x PE (RM 10.00) reflects this doomsday view. The market is basically pricing in declining earnings growth into perpetuity and giving no stock to a potential turnaround. Government intervention to address the illegal trade is widely perceived as sorely lacking and possibly not existing, with analysts imputing revenue declines of up to 30% a year into their models. Share price targets range from RM 11 – RM 15, although the share price has fallen by some 20% since the last revision of analyst reports. All in all, it seems like bad news for BAT.
 
Opportunities
The opportunities for BAT, while less apparent, do exist. For one, the government could by some miracle successfully enforce existing laws and put the brakes on illegal trade – it has already slowed the latter’s advance by some 50% since the sin tax hike. Alternatively, the government could recognize the disadvantages of the narrowing tax base from legal cigarettes and decide to reverse or reduce the sin tax, leading to a reclaiming of legal market share by industry players to previous highs. By some back-of-the-envelope calculations, if legal market share rises to just half of their historical levels, BAT’s earnings and share price could double from here. PE ratios would also expand in such a scenario.
BAT’s parent company in London could also decide to acquire the Malaysian subsidiary given the depressed prices. A fair market price given the circumstances would be roughly 15x PE, which assuming earnings continue to decline by 30% from today, would put the acquisition price at around 120-130% from current share prices.
BAT has also been experimenting with nicotine-related products, such as the Heat-Not-Burn (HNB) device known as Glo (PMI has a branded competitor known as IQOS). Both have received glowing reviews from former cigarette users and is expected to help the companies transition into the post-smoking era (i.e. 20-30 years from now). So far, Glo has developed a 1% total industry market share in Malaysia despite only being launched 2 years ago, showcasing its popularity and potential success.
Finally, the government is preparing the release of new legislation regarding vaping, which is due to see light by mid-2020. While legalization is still not guaranteed, government officials have publicly admitted the difficulty of enforcing laws if a vaping ban were to be instituted. If vaping is legalized, the legal industry could see a 10% increase in market share overnight as they introduce their own products to supplement the demand for currently illegal products.
 
Risk : Reward
In my opinion, current share prices have priced in all the risks while discounting all the opportunities. Even assuming earnings decline at an average annual rate of 10% into perpetuity, it would take just ten years to reclaim your initial investment. This is assuming illegal market share continues its rise unabated and legal market share never sees the light of day again. Keep in mind that the company has a 90% dividend payout policy, and has kept this rate despite recent struggles in its business, so you’d get a return of capital regardless of the share price performance.
In this worst-case scenario, the parent company would either push for an acquisition or liquidate the Malaysian operations. An acquisition at fire-sale prices would probably yield at least 5x PE, while a liquidation would yield nothing given the current ratio of 0.8x. The latter is highly unlikely because it would mean that BAT ceases to have a presence in Malaysia completely, a growing South East Asian nation with GDP growth of 4-5% and potentially bright future. Hence, given the probabilities and an estimate of expected value, you’d already come out on top at the current PE of 8x.
What about the alternative? Before we get into the valuation from an opportunity set perspective, let us consider BAT’s business model. As Buffett says, this is a company with unit economics of a penny per cigarette, selling them at a dollar per cigarette, fantastic brand loyalty and a captive audience. Imagine if you could have owned Altria in the USA in the 1970’s. Today, you’d own Altria, Kraft Heinz, PMI and a smattering of profitable businesses around the world. While I don’t mean to draw a direct comparison between BAT Malaysia today and Altria USA of the 70’s, it’s not hard to imagine a similarly wonderful future for a company with such an attractive business model.
As far as economic moats are concerned, the cigarette business is probably one of the few businesses you can say will be around in another 20-30 years. Sure, they’re facing headwinds in the form of a burgeoning illegal cigarette trade today, but who says they will still be facing the same demons 10 years from now, or even 5 years? If there’s one thing for certain, it’s that the business environment is fluid – and chances are good that things won’t remain the same as today, whatever they may be.
 
A Reasonable Bull-Case Scenario Valuation
Let’s put the humdrums aside for a moment and imagine a brighter future for BAT. What would this future look like? For one, it’s possible that within the next 5 years the government realizes it can’t contain the illegal cigarette problem and decide to reduce the sin tax to previous levels. The wider tax base resulting from such a move would result in the same absolute amount in taxes even at lower tax rates – so there is no financial disincentive not to do so – while at the same time reducing the illegal market share. If legal market share even reclaims half of their former levels, the share price of BAT could double from today.
Furthermore, what’s stopping BAT from resuming earnings growth, assuming the business environment recovers? Even if earnings grow by just equal to GDP growth (i.e. 4-5% a year), it would justify a 15x PE at the minimum considering a long-time horizon of 20-30 years. Combine a doubling of earnings with a 15x PE, and you’re looking at a potential quadrupling (4x) of the current share price.
 
A Best-Case Scenario Valuation
If BAT reclaims its former glory and returns to its historical market capitalization of RM 18 billion, we’re talking about a 600% increase in share price.
That’s just for the next ten years. What about dividends beyond that? Let’s imagine the best possible scenario for BAT. Assume for awhile that you’re planning to hold BAT for the next 30 years. Assume also that in ten years’ time, BAT’s share price skyrockets to 600% of current levels, and then grows earnings by 4% a year into perpetuity and pays out 90% of earnings at dividends. Account for 3% inflation and zero percent cost of capital (i.e. growth funded from retained earnings). By the end of year 30, you’d end up with 27x your initial investment, or 2700% of your capital. That’s a 12% CAGR.
In other words, a $40,000 investment in BAT today could potentially yield a million dollars in 30 year’s time. And that’s with reasonable assumptions. Tweak the numbers further and you’ll could potentially reach Buffett-like returns.
 
Conclusion
To sum things up, it appears that current share prices already impute the worst-case scenario, while the best-case scenario is a 600% capital appreciation potential in ten years, or 2700% over 30 years. Giving a margin of safety, let’s dial the ten-year return of 600% down by 50% - we still get a 300% reward scenario. That’s a 12% CAGR over ten years. Not too shabby.
Assuming 50% downside from today’s prices, the upside-to-downside ratio at 300% upside would still be a healthy 1:6. Now that’s a margin of safety.
If you believe that BAT has no future in Malaysia and will ultimately be acquired or liquidated, expect share prices to fall by up to 50% from here. If you expect that the legal industry will recover to former highs and that BAT is well-positioned as the largest cigarette player in an ASEAN country with 4% GDP growth (alongside Vietnam, Singapore, and Indonesia), you can expect share prices to rise by at least 300% over the next 10 years.
More realistically, share prices will fluctuate by 20% from current levels both to the upside and downside over the next year or so. If you can stomach that kind of volatility, BAT makes for a wonderful risk-reward component of your hopefully diversified emerging market portfolio.
 
A Value Investor’s Perspective
As mentioned above, Warren Buffett has a history of buying companies for pennies on the dollar when the share price reflects maximum pessimism. This does not mean to dive blindly into freefalling stocks which you do not understand. It does mean that you should do your homework, and when you spot an attractive risk:reward ratio in stocks where others are running for the exits, you should be comfortable holding a large position.
Buying a leading cigarette company in its market while it’s beaten down represents one of the most potentially profitable investments imaginable. For reference, take a look at Altria. If you had bought $1,000 worth of shares in Altria in 1970, and reinvested all the dividends, you would be sitting on a fortune worth $5 million by today. That’s an astounding 18% CAGR over an extraordinarily long period of 50 years. Can BAT Malaysia repeat this tier of performance? Probably not, but you don’t need to in order to make a satisfying profit from it.
Buffett espouses thinking long-term when it comes to investing. Think about the long-term when it comes to BAT Malaysia. Is it likely that illegal cigarette’s share of the market will remain elevated at 65% or above for the next 20 years continually? If I was a betting man, I’d wager that it won’t. More likely than not, some kind of unforeseen development will unfold which will bring market share back into the folds of the legal industry – it could be vaping, HNB products, a newly yet unrevealed form of nicotine-device, or even an evolution in the way smokers think. What can be relied on however is that in 20 years smokers will still continue to view nicotine, and by extension smoking-related products, as a form of entertainment and relaxation.
Then there’s the dividends. The dividend yield on one share of Altria bought in the 1990’s held until today would exceed 30%. This is because the dividends have grown over the years in tandem with earnings growth. Extrapolate that to BAT Malaysia, which currently has a dividend yield of 15%. Assuming an average of 4% earnings growth going forward, that dividend yield would grow to just about 45% in 30 years. That’s the power of compounding.
Buffett also champions the idea of owning companies with fortress economic moats. Some of the companies which he owns have such moats, including Coca-Cola, Wells Fargo, GEICO, American Express, etc. It’s hard to argue that BAT Malaysia doesn’t have such a moat. Even in such trying times where revenues have contracted by 20%, it still sports a high-flying ROE of 100%, and stable gross margins of 30%. I would go so far as to compare BAT Malaysia today to a Coca-Cola or American Express when Buffett bought them during times of pessimism.
Think about the future of BAT in 10 years, or 20 years’ time. It’s likely that it will have overcome the temporary hurdles which it faces today by then and resume earning high returns on significant capital invested over a long period of time. This is truly a compounding machine if there ever was one. Or as the title suggests, a wonderful company trading at a wonderful price.
Remember that Buffett’s best buys in the public markets have all been investments made during trying times, such as what BAT is facing today. AMEX could have gone bankrupt over the Salad Oil Scandal. GEICO was literally months away from being unable to service its insurance liabilities. Goldman Sachs was teetering on the brink of financial collapse under the heavy weight of subprime mortgage obligations. Coca-Cola was not the company it is today – it was an overburdened, overdiversified conglomerate with little growth outlook. Wells Fargo was staring at a huge, unserviceable loan book immediately following the Californian earthquakes given its significant residential exposure. It’s definitely nice to pay fair prices for wonderful companies, but it’s even better to be able to pay wonderful prices for wonderful companies.
 
In times like these, it pays to reflect on some words of wisdom for guidance:
Buy when there’s blood in the streets.
Be greedy when others are fearful.
In the short-term, the market is a voting machine; in the long-term, it is a weighing machine.
Price is what you pay, value is what you get.
It is far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price, than a fair company at a wonderful price.
Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble.
 
May the investing odds be ever in your favor!
 
Stock code: 4162.KL Stock name: British American Tobacco (Malaysia) Berhad Financial information and financial reports: https://www.malaysiastock.biz/Corporate-Infomation.aspx?securityCode=4162
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House of Rothschild: Then & Now (Part 3)

House of Rothschild: Then & Now (Part 3)
by Jayge 8^J
"Baron Abraham Edmond Benjamin James de Rothschild (19 August 1845 – 2 November 1934) was a French member of the Rothschild banking family. A strong supporter of Zionism, his large donations lent significant support to the movement during its early years, which helped lead to the establishment of the State of Israel...in 1882 Edmond cut back on his purchases of art and began to buy land in Southern Syria (Ottoman Palestine). He became a leading proponent of the Zionist movement, financing the first site at Rishon LeZion. In his goal for the establishment of a Jewish homeland, he promoted industrialization and economic development. In 1924, he established the Palestine Jewish Colonization Association (PICA), which acquired more than 125,000 acres (50,586 ha) of land and set up business ventures. Edmond de Rothschild also played a pivotal role in Israel's wine industry. Under the supervision of his administrators in Ottoman Palestine, farm colonies and vineyards were established, and two major wineries were opened in Rishon LeZion and Zikhron Ya'akov. It is estimated that Rothschild spent over $50 million in supporting the settlements and backed research in electricity by engineers and financed development of an electric generating station. Jews and Arabs lived amicably on Rothschild's land, with no Arab grievances, even in the worst periods of disturbance.[citation needed] According to historian Albert M. Hyamson, "Rothschild recognised that the overriding interest of the Jews of Palestine was the confidence and the friendship of their Arab neighbours. The interests of the Arab cultivators of the land he bought were never overlooked, but by development he made this land capable of maintaining a population ten times its former size." While Edmond de Rothschild was not always supportive of an inclusive government - he suggested in 1931 to Judah Magnes that "We must hold them (the Arabs) down with a strong hand" - he acknowledged the importance of co-governance and peaceful coexistence in a 1934 letter to the League of Nations, stating that "the struggle to put an end to the Wandering Jew, could not have as its result, the creation of the Wandering Arab.""
"Nathaniel Charles Jacob Rothschild, 4th Baron Rothschild, OM, GBE, FRCA, Hon FKC, Hon FBA (born 29 April 1936) is a British investment banker and a member of the prominent Rothschild banking family. He is also honorary president of the Institute for Jewish Policy Research...From 1963 Rothschild worked at the family bank N M Rothschild & Sons in London, before resigning in 1980 due to a family dispute. The chairmanship of the bank had passed from his father, who had chosen to follow a scientific career and had lost control of the majority voting shares, to his cousin Sir Evelyn Robert de Rothschild, and Jacob felt that his aspirations would be thwarted. He sold his minority stake in the bank, but took independent control of Rothschild Investment Trust (now RIT Capital Partners plc), an investment trust listed on the London Stock Exchange. After resigning from the bank in 1980, Jacob Rothschild went on to found J. Rothschild Assurance Group (now St. James's Place plc) with Sir Mark Weinberg in 1991. In 1989, he joined forces with Sir James Goldsmith and Kerry Packer, in an unsuccessful bid for British American Tobacco. Rothschild is Chairman of RIT Capital Partners plc, one of the largest investment trusts quoted on the London Stock Exchange with a net asset value of about £2 billion. He is Chairman of J Rothschild Capital Management, a subsidiary of RIT Capital Partners plc. He is also a Member of the Council for the Duchy of Cornwall for HRH The Prince of Wales and a member of the International Advisory Board of The Blackstone Group. He also retains many other venture capital and property interests. From November 2003 until his retirement in 2008, he was Deputy Chairman of BSkyB Television and until 2008 he was a Director of RHJ International. In 2003 Rothschild came under scrutiny when Russian oil industrialist Mikhail Khodorkovsky's shares in YUKOS passed to him under a deal they concluded prior to Khodorkovsky's arrest. In November 2010, an undisclosed entity affiliated with Rothschild purchased a 5.0% equity interest in Genie Energy, a subsidiary of IDT Corporation, for $10.0 million. In 2013, Genie Energy was granted exclusive oil and gas exploration rights to a 153-square mile radius in the southern part of the Golan Heights. From his headquarters in St James's Place in London, Jacob Rothschild has cultivated an influential set of clients, business associates and friends who have extended his interests far beyond the normal scope of a banker. He maintains strong personal and business links with Henry Kissinger. His country estate has been a regular venue for visiting heads of state including Presidents Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton. Margaret Thatcher received French President François Mitterrand there at a summit in 1990. He hosted the European Economic Round Table conference in 2002, attended by such figures as James Wolfensohn, former president of the World Bank, Nicky Oppenheimer, Warren Buffett and Arnold Schwarzenegger." -- Wikipedia
"US Presidents Murdered By The Rothschild Banking Cartel Lincoln's Private War: The Trail of Blood 7-12-9 Lincoln's Birthday gives us an appropriate opportunity to examine some deep American traditions which may also give us some unusual insights into the "principalities and powers" of Ephesians Chapter 6. Abraham Lincoln worked valiantly to prevent the Rothschild's attempts to involve themselves in financing the Civil War. Interestingly, it was the Czar of Russia who provided the needed assistance against the British and French, who were among the driving forces behind the secession of the South and her subsequent financing. Russia intervened by providing naval forces for the Union blockade of the South in European waters, and by letting both countries know that if they attempted to join the Confederacy with military forces, they would also have to go to war with Russia. The Rothschild interests did succeed, through their agent Treasury Secretary Salmon P. Chase, to force a bill (the National Banking Act) through Congress creating a federally chartered central bank that had the power to issue U.S. Bank Notes. Afterward, Lincoln warned the American people: "The money power preys upon the nation in time of peace and conspires against it in times of adversity. It is more despotic than monarchy, more insolent than autocracy, more selfish than bureaucracy. I see in the near future a crisis approaching that unnerves me, and causes me to tremble for the safety of our country. Corporations have been enthroned, an era of corruption will follow, and the money power of the country will endeavor to prolong its reign by working upon the prejudices of the people, until the wealth is aggregated in a few hands, and the republic is destroyed. "<http://www.servelec.net/lincoln.htm#4>4 Lincoln continued to fight against the central bank, and some now believe that it was his anticipated success in influencing Congress to limit the life of the Bank of the United States to just the war years that was the motivating factor behind his assassination. The Lone Assassin Myth is Born Modern researchers have uncovered evidence of a massive conspiracy that links the following parties to the Bank of Rothschild:<http://www.servelec.net/lincoln.htm#5>5 Lincoln's Secretary of War Edwin Stanton, John Wilkes Booth, his eight co-conspirators, and over seventy government officials and businessmen involved in the conspiracy. When Booth's diary was recovered by Stanton's troops, it was delivered to Stanton. When it was later produced during the investigation, eighteen pages had been ripped out. These pages, containing the aforementioned names,were later found in the attic of one of Stanton's descendants. >From Booth's trunk, a coded message was found that linked him directly to Judah P. Benjamin, the Civil War campaign manager in the South for the House of Rothschild. When the war ended, the key to the code was found in Benjamin's possession. The assassin, portrayed as a crazed lone gunman with a few radical friends, escaped by way of the only bridge in Washington not guarded by Stanton's troops. "Booth" was located hiding in a barn near Port Royal, Virginia, three days after escaping from Washington. He was shot by a soldier named Boston Corbett, who fired without orders. Whether or not the man killed was Booth is still a matter of contention, but the fact remains that whoever it was, he had no chance to identify himself. It was Secretary of War Edwin Stanton who made the final identification. Some now believe that a dupe was used and that the real John Wilkes Booth escaped with Stanton's assistance. Mary Todd Lincoln, upon hearing of her husband's death, began screaming, "Oh, that dreadful house!" Earlier historians felt that this spontaneous utterance referred to the White House. Some now believe it may have been directed to Thomas W. House, a gun runner, financier, and agent of the Rothschild's during the Civil War, who was linked to the anti-Lincoln, pro-banker interests.<http://www.servelec.net/lincoln.htm#6>6 The Federal Reserve Another myth that all Americans live with is the charade known as the "Federal Reserve." It comes as a shock to many to discover that it is not an agency of the United States Government. The name "Federal Reserve Bank" was designed to deceive, and it still does. It is not federal, nor is it owned by the government. It is privately owned.<http://www.servelec.net/lincoln.htm#7>7 It pays its own postage like any other corporation. Its employees are not in civil service. Its physical property is held under private deeds, and is subject to local taxation. Government property, as you know, is not. It is an engine that has created private wealth that is unimaginable, even to the most financially sophisticated. It has enabled an imperial elite to manipulate our economy for its own agenda and enlisted the government itself as its enforcer. It controls the times, dictates business, affects our homes and practically everything in which we are interested. It takes powerful force to maintain an empire, and this one is no different. The concerns of the leadership of the "Federal Reserve" and its secretive international benefactors appear to go well beyond currency and interest rates. Andrew Jackson Andrew Jackson was the first President from west of the Appalachians. He was unique for the times in being elected by the voters, without the direct support of a recognized political organization. He vetoed the renewal of the charter for the Bank of the United States on July 10, 1832. In 1835, President Andrew Jackson declared his disdain for the international bankers: "You are a den of vipers. I intend to rout you out, and by the Eternal God I will rout you out. If the people only understood the rank injustice of our money and banking system, there would be a revolution before morning."<http://www.servelec.net/lincoln.htm#8>8 There followed an (unsuccessful) assassination attempt on President Jackson's life. Jackson had told his vice president, Martin Van Buren, "The bank, Mr. Van Buren, is trying to kill me...."<http://www.servelec.net/lincoln.htm#9>9 Was this the beginning of a pattern of intrigue that would plague the White House itself over the coming decades? Was his (and Lincoln's) death related by an invisible thread to the international bankers? James Garfield President James Abram Garfield, our 20th President, had previously been Chairman of the House Committee on Appropriations and was an expert on fiscal matters. (Upon his election, among other things, he appointed an unpopular collector of customs at New York, whereupon the two Senators from New York--Roscoe Conkling and Thomas Platt--resigned their seats.) President Garfield openly declared that whoever controls the supply of currency would control the business and activities of all the people. After only four months in office, President Garfield was shot at a railroad station on July 2, 1881. Another coincidence. John F. Kennedy President John F. Kennedy planned to exterminate the Federal Reserve System. In 1963 he signed Executive Orders EO-11 and EO-110, returning to the government the responsibility to print money, taking that privilege away from the Federal Reserve System.<http://www.servelec.net/lincoln.htm#10>10 Shortly thereafter, President John F. Kennedy was assassinated.<http://www.servelec.net/lincoln.htm#11>11 The professional, triangulated fire that executed the President of the United States is not the most shocking issue. The high- level coordination that organized the widespread coverup is manifest evidence of the incredible power of a "hidden government" behind the scenes. (Sound preposterous? Read Kill Zone, by Craig Roberts for an update on the events in Dealey Plaza.) The Trail of Blood Continues In the 70's and 80's, Congressman Larry P. McDonald spearheaded efforts to expose the hidden holdings and intentions of the international money interests. His efforts ended on August 31, 1983, when he was killed when Korean Airlines 007 was "accidentally" shot down in Soviet airspace. A strange coincidence, it would seem. Senator John Heinz and former Senator John Tower had served on powerful Senate banking and finance committees and were outspoken critics of the Federal Reserve and the Eastern Establishment. On April 4, 1991, Senator John Heinz was killed in a plane crash near Philadelphia.<http://www.servelec.net/lincoln.htm#12>12 On the next day, April 5, 1991, former Senator John Tower was also killed in a plane crash. The coincidences seem to mount.<http://www.servelec.net/lincoln.htm#13>13 Attempts to just audit the Federal Reserve continue to meet with failure. It is virtually impossible to muster support for any issue that has the benefit of a media blackout.<http://www.servelec.net/lincoln.htm#14>14 (The bizarre but tragic reality that the American people suffer from a managed and controlled media is a subject for another discussion.) Beginning of a Series For many years, numerous authors have attempted to sound the alarm that there exists a hidden "shadow government" that actually rules America. Most of us have dismissed these "conspiracy theory" views as extremist and unrealistic. However, when I had the opportunity to have lunch with Otto von Habsburg,<http://www.servelec.net/lincoln.htm#15>15 Member of the European Parliament, he made two remarks that caught my attention. The first was: "The ignorance in America is overwhelming." Indeed, the contrast in general awareness of world affairs between the average American and the average European is striking. It was his second observation that really provoked me: "The concentration of power in America is frightening."<http://www.servelec.net/lincoln.htm#16>16 As a reasonably circumspect senior executive, having spent three decades in international finance and viewing America as a broadly based representative democracy, his remark shocked me. It prompted me to do some more homework. The results of my inquiries are most disturbing. Sources: 1. Wardner, James W., The Planned Destruction of America, Longwood Communications, 397 Kingslake Drive, DeBarry, FL, 1994. [IMG]A "must read." 2. Roberts, Craig, Kill Zone, Consolidated Press International, 1994. Fascinating expos, on the assassination of John F. Kennedy. Paul, Ron, The Ron Paul Survival Report (a newsletter by a former congressman on monetary issues, personal survival, etc.), P.O. Box 602, Lake Jackson, TX, 77566. (A comprehensive list of similar resources is also included in the notes to <http://www.khouse.org/briefing.html>The Vortex Strategy, Volume 2.) Notes: 1. <http://www.servelec.net/briefing.html>Briefing Packages Iron Mixed with Clay: The Emergent European Suprastate; Mystery of Babylon; Daniel's Seventy Weeks; et al. 2. 2 Corinthians 2:11. 3. Ephesians 6:12. 4. Roberts, Archibald E., Bulletin--Committee to Restore the Constitution, Feb. 1989, p. 6; H.S. Kennan, The Federal Reserve Bank, p. 9; James W. Wardner, The Planned Destruction of America, p. 23. 5. Roberts, Craig, Kill Zone, p. 170. 6. Thomas W. House was the father of "Colonel" Edward Mandell House who later became the key player in the election of Woodrow Wilson and the passage of the Federal Reserve Act. 7. Lewis vs. United States, Ninth Circuit Court, Apr. 17, 1982. 8. Roberts, Archibald E., Bulletin--Committee to Restore the Constitution, Feb. 1989, p. 5. 9. Schlesinger Jr., Arthur M., The Age of Jackson, Mentor Books, NY, 1945, p. 6-7. 10. Roberts, Craig, Kill Zone, Typhoon Press, Consolidated Press International, 1994, p. 189. 11. For a current summary of what really happened at Dealey Plaza, read Craig Robert's Kill Zone. 12. Kah, Gary H., En Route to Global Occupation, Huntington House Publishers, Lafayette, LA, 1992, p. 19. 13. ibid., p. 18. 14. ibid., p. 19-20. 15. His father ruled Europe until the end of the Austrian-Hungarian Empire in 1918. 16. <http://www.khouse.org/update.html>Personal UPDATE, November 1993, p. 4-8." -- rense.com
"VIDEO: Were The Devastating California Wildfires Caused By Directed-Energy Weapons? By cloverchronicle on November 18, 2018 At around 9:45 PM on Sunday October 8th, 2017, the Tubbs Fire began in Northern California. And by the time the sun came up, over 1,000 homes were destroyed. Videos and photographs show how this so-called forest fire seemed to spare the wild and somehow jumped from house to house. CNN reported that the so-called forest fire jumped to the freeway. Hundreds of photographs show cars with melted trails of aluminum alloys from what must have been an unprecedented amount of power. The average forest fire burns at 1,100 degrees Fahrenheit. Aluminum alloys will melt at temperatures between 1,200 and 2,000 degrees. But many of these cars were nowhere near a forest fire. Some cars were flipped over. Credit: David McNew/Getty Images Credit: Eric Risberg/AP Photo The heat must have been intense. Not only was it able to melt aluminum alloy, but consistently every home that caught fire was leveled to white powdery ash in less than 12 hours. By October 31st, the Tubbs Fire had destroyed 5,643 buildings. PG&E (Pacific Gas and Electric) was found responsible for 16 of the fires; over $10 billion in damages. All of this while producing $1 billion a year in profits for the Rothschild Investment Group. PG&E warned the public that the fires would not just continue, but will grow larger every season. They warned their investors that future liability will force PG&E into bankruptcy. In June, utility officials told state lawmakers that they needed protection to survive the coming fire season. On August 31st, California state legislature passed a utility bailout bill to protect PG&E, its shareholders and Rothschild Investment. At sunrise on Thursday, November 8th, the Camp Fire wildfire began in California. It has all the same anomalies as the Tubbs Fire and is already twice as devastating. Many people are asking the same question: Is this an attack? In 2003, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and General Richard Myers admit to the development of directed-energy weapons and microwave technology. In 2017, Lockheed Martin shoots drones out of the sky with an invisible laser beam that burns them from the inside out. The technology exists. The evidence is there. But the motive? Perhaps it can be found in the United Nations Agenda 21 where in certain areas of the country are proposed to be off limits to human use. It just so happens that these strange California fires seem to all be within the proposed “no human use” areas. Credit: EPI New regulations of insurance policies are preventing homeowners from rebuilding. Meanwhile, they claim this is the new normal and are now claiming it is a phenomenon of global warming. One thing is for certain: The governor of California has already assured that the people will pay for all of the damages. (Credit: Infowars)" -- cloverchronicle.com
"VIDEO: Woman Predicted Deadly California Wildfires Back In February, Said Pacific Gas And Electric Would Be Responsible By cloverchronicle on November 16, 2018 A video posted earlier this year on YouTube shows a woman from StopTheCrime.net speaking at a Sonoma County Board of Supervisors meeting. Almost immediately, she stated the following: “One of the reasons why I was not here for two and half years… I used to be a regular attendee here… but Pacific Gas and Electric was intercepted with a download of documents professing the fact that they were going to be using directed energy weapons, satellite based, on Sonoma County. That has been up on YouTube with the plan to burn up Northern California.” “We discovered that Pacific Gas and Electric is operated by and large by Rothschild. Rothschild owns Weather Central and also has a large hand in weather modification, globally. And it’s so sad to be here today because I have family members that lost homes and I live in a county that I call home… that is being literally overrun by a power that has not yet been discussed.” “And I’m horrified and sad to be here right now. Very sad. But the plan to burn up Northern California was real. It was your first early warning. And there were emails that were sent to other government officials… (they) knew about this. And I would ask you please to watch the YouTube (video). Listen to it, because the second plan of burning up Northern California hasn’t yet happened. But it will. It will happen.” Watch the video below: Interestingly enough, an anonymous image board user also mentioned PG&E, along with some other details, in a couple of their posts: “The Camp Fire was a pre-planned event! I saw activity in the community of Paradise that gave me the sinking feeling that something was going to occur. I even told my daughter the week previous that something was going to happen. Capstone company needs to be completely investigated. I was told they were contracted by PG&E and working in the area for a couple of weeks previous to the event. I saw strange things during the fire being done by this company. Certain houses surrounded by fire trucks as up the street people burned alive in their cars. On top of that the town of Paradise turned the water off which prevented firemen from doing their jobs. The 3rd day Cal Fire called and demanded the water be turned back on. Many years ago we discovered that approx 75% of the hydrants in our town are blank. They are not connected to any water source at all. I lost everything I own to this fire. Most of the town did. Many people lost their lives trying to escape. I have lived in this town since 84 and have seen some of the worst fire seasons on record. This was not a regular fire. The wind was NOT blowing like they claim except in the vicinity of the fire itself. There are roads with every house burnt to the ground but garbage cans standing perfectly untouched in the street between the burnt houses. In the weeks before many of the retirement and convalescent homes had evacuation drills and made sure that each person had a bag packed with 3 days worth of clothes and meds which stayed packed and ready after the drill. There is so much more to share, but there is no one here trustworthy to talk to.”“My thoughts on why… All of the California communities burned this year are for the most part Republicans. Between Camp fire and the Carr fire there are now 1000s of displaced voters. And the gold… The town of Paradise is literally on a mountain of un-mined gold. People have avoided selling property for generations to pass it down to family and not have the town destroyed. I would bet the last dollar in my pocket that there will be a few contractors come through to purchase as much property as possible at this point. I need help and I am absolutely willing to doxx myself to the f**king world. I drove through fire to save my grandchildren’s lives and I will go to whatever length I have to find the answer to who and why they did this to my community.”" -- cloverchronicles.com
"Meet The Remaining Heirs Of The Legendary Rothschild Dynasty...When the Rothschilds last made headlines, Nat was suing a British newspaper for libel in connection with a trip he took to a Russian sauna with an oligarch and a British lord. A family that has defined several eras of financial history, and has established institutions and residency across Europe needs no introduction. But Nat is far from the only scion of the famous banking family who pops in and out of the headlines. We've pulled together the current exploits of the far-flung, and at this point distantly-related, family members. Nathaniel 'Nat' Rothschild...Current whereabouts and activity: Besides the whole sauna situation, Nat was co-chairman of the hedge fund Atticus Capital from 1996 until it ceased activity in 2009. He now lives in Switzerland a majority of the time and runs JNR Limited, an advisory business focused on emerging markets natural resources transactions. He is co-chair of Bumi Plc, an Indonesian mining company listed on the London Stock Exchange. He was also reported to be friends with Muammar Qaddafi's son Saif. Lineage: The youngest of four children and only son of Jacob Rothschild, 4th Baron Rothschild and Serena Mary Dunn." -- businessinsider.com Ben Walsh Feb. 7, 2012, 9:13 AM
"The richest Rothschild of them all...By Zoe Brennan. Nat Rothschild is at the centre of a political storm after alleging Shadow Tory Chancellor George Osborne solicited a donation from a Russian oligarch. Party boy: Nat Rothschild has shed his wild side to earn a fortune. As the young man spoke, silence descended. Gathered around the table at this high-powered lunch in central London earlier this month were the elite of the British business world. Marcus Agius, chairman of Barclays bank, Sir David Arculus of the O2 telecoms giant, and Ian Davis, the global managing director of McKinsey consulting company, put down their knives and forks to listen. The unassuming man - 20 years younger than the assembled company - delivered a considered and incisive view of global markets with a gravitas that belied his youth. One witness says: "It was incredibly impressive. He waited for his moment, and then came across as calculating and powerful. I think everyone was taken by surprise. "I found it impossible to square what I knew of his previous wild-child existence with the man who sat before us." The man in question was Nat Rothschild - the 35-year-old scion of the wealthy banking dynasty, one-time black sheep of the family, and now a rising star in his own right. Earlier this month, the New York Times highlighted his extraordinary metamorphosis from playboy to hedge fund prince, and tipped him as "a kingmaker in his own right, and an investor who some say may become the richest Rothschild of them all". An extravagant assertion - but not without some plausibility. Rich-list compiler Philip Beresford says: "He has been on my radar for some time. He jets around the world empire-building, keeping in touch with his deals via the latest satellite communications. He has the years on his side and the right connections. "What he needs is one of those historic opportunities like the ones seized by his ancestors. If he gets that golden moment, he could be the richest one of his generation." Nat is in line to become the fifth Baron Rothschild and inherit around £500million from his banker father. But now, thanks to a complicated web of private equity investments in the Ukraine and Eastern Europe, and his partnership in Atticus Capital, a hugely successful £7billion hedge fund, Nat is set to exceed the fortune he will be bequeathed with his own earnings. His wealth has been accrued in his role as the adviser to Oleg Deripaska, one of the richest oligarchs in Russia and the owner of the aluminum giant Rusal, which recently merged with two other companies to create the world's largest aluminum company. And, although discreet in his business deals, privately he lives the life one would associate with a Rothschild. His best friend is Roman Abramovich, the owner of Chelsea Football Club, and he is currently rumoured to be dating the young film actress Natalie Portman. An accomplished skier, his principal residence is in Klosters, Switzerland, and he uses his Gulfstream jet to travel between his other homes in Paris, Moscow, London, New York and Greece. Nat is a generous and gregarious host, who lavishes his guests with vintage champagne and wine from the Rothschild vineyards - but he no longer raises a glass himself: that would be to lapse into the libertine existence he has left behind. For his rise is all the more noteworthy given the fact that it once appeared that Nat Rothschild - sadly like several of the dynasty before him - was self-destructing. In 1996, one of Nat Rothschild's cousins, Amschel, hanged himself at the age of 41. He had just been asked to fill a leading position in the family bank in London. Four years later, another cousin, Raphael de Rothschild, died in Manhattan from a heroin overdose. He was just 23. For some years it appeared that Nat Rothschild, too, would follow in their blighted footsteps. From an early age, he appeared an unlikely dealmaker. A contemporary at Eton remembers him as "a rather scruffy and unpredictable boy with a rebellious streak, who you would never have tipped to make a big success of his life". At one stage during his Eton career, Rothschild was sent to live with a master, in a vain attempt to rein him in. The friend says: "He seemed the classic example of a boy born into huge privilege, weighed down with parental expectations, but who resisted any type of conformism and resented authority." He adds: "To be honest, aside from his name, he's the last person I would have expected to end up running his own hedge fund - but then perhaps that's what's made him so successful. He has a willingness to take risks, to seek out the extreme, to act impetuously." While at Oxford, Rothschild soon became infamous for his excesses. He was a member of the notorious Bullingdon Club, the debauched all-male drinking society with a reputation for drug-taking and wanton vandalism, which counts David Cameron among its former members. Indeed, Rothschild once pushed a portable toilet down a steep hill - with a friend still inside. An Oxford friend remembers: "We were at Wadham together. Nat was rarely out of black tie, he would drink and party through the night, and then sleep through the day in his formal suit, much to the dismay of his history tutors. "He's not blessed in the looks department, he's got carrot-red hair and freckles. But Nat is very charming and has a penchant for fast cars. "At college, he was known as a babe magnet - at parties, the beautiful girls would flock to him like bees to honey. That's what the name Rothschild does for you. Women seem to find it a very powerful aphrodisiac." Favoured girls would be asked back to his father Jacob's lavish country estate, where the young lothario reputedly slashed their car tyres so that he might detain them long enough to seduce them. An escort girl recently claimed that in 1994, Rothschild asked her to supply drugs and strippers to a party at the Rothschild stately home, Waddesdon Manor, Buckinghamshire, which is now run by the National Trust. She said: "They were very precise in what they wanted - three slim black girls in stockings, suspenders and high heels. They also wanted the girls to do extras." When Nat embarked on a romance with Kate Moss's friend, model Annabelle Neilson, his family must have cast a jaded eye over his latest choice, whom he had met on a beach in India. They were even more horrified when, aged just 23, he eloped with her to Las Vegas, and married her. "It was a huge shock to Jacob and his wife, Lady Serena," says a close family friend. "They expected him to date models and sow his wild oats - but marrying Annabelle was incredibly impetuous and obviously against the advice of the family lawyers. They were just appalled. "The girl's party trick was to climb onto the dining table in her tiny dress and stilettos and dance amid the crystal and silver. Rather vulgar, I'm afraid. Nat's parents predicted it would end in tears, and it did." For a while, the couple appeared to live a gilded life, gracing the pages of glossy magazines - partying in Cannes with friends such as supermodel Elle Macpherson, designer Alexander McQueen, and "It" girl Tamara Beckwith, or sunning themselves in the Caribbean. After just three years of partying - and cataclysmic rows - the couple divorced and Neilson reportedly received a generous financial settlement in return for rescinding the dynastic name and signing a confidentiality agreement. At that moment, alone in New York and, according to friends, "a mess", Rothschild took stock of his hitherto aimless society life. Those close to him say that he suddenly found something repellent in his lifestyle. He decided to turn his back on partying and step up to his name. To that end, he joined the merchant bank Lazards in London and then moved to New York. There Nat met Timothy Barakett, a young investor who was trying to raise money for Atticus, his new hedge fund (basically, a private investment fund open only to selected individuals and following a complex investment strategy). He asked Barakett for a job, but was turned down. The men stayed in touch, though, and two years later, Barakett took Rothschild on, giving him the title of director of business development - a position in which he was, of course, able to open doors for his partner. At the time, they were Atticus's only two employees. But not for long. Since its inception, the fund has grown an incredible 30 per cent a year and now has £7billion under its management. Success has brought huge rewards: in 2005, Rothschild was paid just over £40million. According to insiders, he made even more than that last year. "He has had an incredible evolution, and he has done it on his own,"Barakett told the New York Times. "It's not about family connections. He has a knack for identifying talented people and interesting investments." Those close to Rothschild believe he is haunted by the desire to live up to his father Jacob's accomplishments, and is determined to enhance the family name. He has recently joined his father in a business venture, JNR, which invests in Russian companies. There is a plan to float it on the London Stock Exchange next year, with some valuations approaching £2billion, making Nat's share worth £300million. Like many Rothschilds before him, he is an avid collector of contemporary art - one of his favourite pieces being a life-sized canvas of a decapitated bikini-clad woman by the British artist Julian Opie. When on business in America, he lives in a breathtaking, minimalist Manhattan town house, which is about to be featured in Men's Vogue. The property is littered with giant flat-screen TVs and expensive boys' toys, with lacquered sliding panels hiding any mess. Modernistic touch screens control the music, heat and televisions, and an outdoor shower graces the rooftop terrace. Only the wine cellar betrays his old-money heritage, with the family connections to Chateau Mouton and Chateau Lafite-Rothschild. Some 670-odd backlit bottles are cradled inside a series of top- of-the-range glass- doored refrigerators, jeroboams of Pierre-Jouet champagne jostling for space with the finest vintages from Bordeaux. David Chipperfield, his architect, says: "Normally you build a house around somebody, around that person's rituals. But Nat isn't a person who necessarily stays in the house that much. His life is much more eccentric, much more erratic." In fact, he rarely spends more than four days in the same place, flying in his elaborately equipped private jet from Siberia, to Switzerland via Greece, to New York - but always retaining a link to Britain. Indeed, the dramatic centrepiece staircase of his five-storey New York house is fashioned out of English oak, while outside - rather incongruously - is a traditional moss-covered English country house garden. There is only one thing missing, of course: a wife to share in his success. After his disastrous marriage, Nat has shunned any long-term commitment, but he has reportedly had flings with Jonathan Aitken's daughter, Petrina Khashoggi, and Ivanka Trump, and is now seeing 25-year-old Natalie Portman - who is about to star as Anne Boleyn in The Other Boleyn Girl - taking her on a discreet date to Wiltons restaurant in St James's. Just how has it suddenly gone so right? A friend from Rothschild's early days says: "It seemed that he suddenly discovered a way to harness his rebellious streak to his advantage, and he was off like a rocket. "The next thing you know, he's got his own private jet and is a master of the corporate universe. "It's as if he just can't help making money."" -- dailymail.co.uk
Just see how swindled wealth gets zionists treated like royalty.
submitted by anti-ZOG-sci-fry to u/anti-ZOG-sci-fry [link] [comments]

Bible, Science, Archaeology, Evolution, Satanism, Mark of the Beast...

Did you know that the 14 creation events of how the universe and Earth were formed written by Moses, in the book of Genesis, are not only all correct, but are also in the correct chronological order? A scientist calculated the probability that he could have known this by his own knowledge, and not by the creator of the universe, to be one in a quadrillion, quadrillion, quadrillion, quadrillion. Ask yourself, are you willing to bet your soul on them odds that Moses got it all correct by chance, or did God reveal it to him?

Did you know that the Bible does not say the Earth was formed in six 24-hour days, but rather six long finite periods of time? The universe is approximately 13.8 billion years old, and the Earth 4 billion. This does not contradict the Bible; it lines up with it! The Bible stood alone among the other religions by concurring with the big bang, and says our universe is expanding, thousands of years before scientists discovered these things!

The Bible, compared with the book of nature, has no contradictions, making ten times more creation claims than all other major "holy" books combined; while these other books contain scientific errors in them! Astronomer(PhD) Hugh Ross and his team have discovered these facts and more! He has brought many scientists to faith in Jesus by this information and more. His claims are based on published scientific documents. He has authored many books, even backed by atheist scientists!

"Scientific Evidence for God's Existence Hugh Ross, PhD": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yocX0VXYTOk

"Did God create the earth before the sun and moon?": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JlGVqUZo83s

1959, in Turkey was found a man-made ship buried, preserved underneath volcanic ash, at the elevation of 6,500 feet. The Bible says Noah's Ark rested on the Mountains of Ararat after the floodwaters receded. Not only was this ship found on the Mountains of Ararat, it is also the exact same length God told Noah to build the Ark; that is, 515 feet, or 300 Egyptian cubits. Ron Wyatt, along with scientists from around the world, lead the research of this artifact for many years.

"Original Noah's Ark Documentary": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h7MNo5ASK5s

Artifacts discovered across the bottom of the Red Sea include wheels, chariot bodies as well as human and horse bones. These chariot parts have been discovered to be from the Egyptian army during the era when the Exodus occurred, concerning Moses and the Israelites.

"Part 1|Red Sea- proof of the supernatural": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I-v6dzIrGR4

98% pure sulfur was found to be rained down on the cities of Sodom and Gomorrah turning it into ashes; unlike any other sulfur found on Earth. Geothermal activity near volcano's produce about 40% sulfur, but is of a different kind. There is no geothermal activity around these cities of Sodom and Gomorrah.

"Sodom and Gomorrah- proof of the supernatural": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DBSIs2bHi5g

One undisputed historical fact among historians and scholars, even skeptics, is that Jesus Christ was crucified under Pontius Pilate, just as the Bible states.

Atheist Police detective examines the resurrection accounts of Jesus Christ by using his 30+ years of experience in examining cold case files. What he ends up discovering turns him into a Christian.

"Atheist Police Detective Examines The Resurrection Of Jesus Christ And Becomes A Christian": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FIc6hAENm1A

Also watch: "Proof of God, 300 Prophecies that Jesus Fulfilled" - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9hMuNGHKsjM

"Zeitgeist Debunked: Jesus Is Not A Copy Of Pagan Gods": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=30AunYXtYDg

Regarding the high level of information found in DNA: "There isn't a single example anywhere in the history of the universe in which information came from anything other than an intelligent source." - Stephen C. Meyer Philosopher of Science

"A necessary requirement for generating meaningful information is the ability to select from alternatives and this requires an intelligent, volitional entity...Unguided, random processes cannot do this - not in any amount of time - because this selection process demands continuous guidance by intelligent beings that have a purpose." - Warner Gitt Engineer and Information Technology Specialist

"How the Origin of Life Points to the Existence of God": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E4uRWk06Wo0

"How the Fine-Tuning of the Universe Points to the Existence of God": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aT-Rdplb9A4

"John Lennox Evolution or Design? Coding in the Cell": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DJvGac-oXWs

A powerful Hell testimony from a U.S. Marine who ended up dead for a period of time. I believe this guy because he has nothing to gain, shows his badge, is very descriptive, and starts crying at the end when he describes the angel who came to his aid. His descriptions of what he saw also correlates with other testimonies of Hell.

"Marine Accidentally Hung Himself, 13 ft Demon Dragged Him to Hell !!! (Shawn Weed NDE Testimony)": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3gyP_xdMl8E

“My life has changed completely. I’m no longer afraid of death. All the problems that I thought were problems are all gone. I don’t have any problems. I don’t have anything that gets me down.”

"THIS MAN DIED DURING SURGERY, MET GOD & ASKED HIM, "WHAT'S THE MEANING OF LIFE?"": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UAnySx2lHC8

"From nothing, we have almost everything, almost overnight, geologically speaking. Most of the major forms of animals appear suddenly in a geological sense.

In Darwin's theory, if you think of the branching tree, Darwin's branching tree with the common ancestor at the bottom, and the different modern forms of animals up top. You would have one form to begin with, then it would gradually diverge into slightly different forms, and more and more different, until you get the major differences that we see now.

The problem with the Cambrian Explosion is that all these major differences appear together at the same time, with no fossil evidence that they descended from this common ancestor."

"Cambrian Explosion Debunks Evolution": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=08TWuALfUG0

"Most mutations are negative than those that are beneficial. The best you get is a ratio of 10,000 to 1. In other words, mutations will tend to drive species to extinction before it has an opportunity to naturally evolve.

Unless it has a truly enormous population size, more than a quadrillion, a body size less than one centimeter, and a generation time briefer than 3 months.

Now you can go to the field biologists. Where do you see speciation going on in the real world? They only see it for those species that match the mathematical limits. Those that don't, all they see is extinction." - Hugh Ross

"Why evolution cannot produce species": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JtFHBV0jEE8

Ravens, Crows, and Jays are the smartest of the Non-Human Animals, not the Great Apes!

"Darwin said the properties of the human mind we get from naturalistic evolution. Because we are most physically like chimpanzee and orangutans, that must be where we got our properties of the mind. Nobody bothered to test Darwin's theory until just some years ago.

A Research group at UCLA and University of California San Diego decided to do an experiment on chimpanzees and a whole bunch of other animals; to see if Darwin was really right, that the chimp was the smartest of the animals.

What they discovered is Darwin was wrong. In fact, they titled their research paper "darwins mistake". What they found is that the smartest of the non-human animals are the ravens, crows, and jays, all ranking smarter than the chimpanzees.

What they discovered, for example, is a wild raven, without any human training, can recover a tool, and use that to recover a very different kind of tool, and use that second tool to get a food treat. Whereas a chimpanzee can't do that. They can only do it if they've been trained for years by a Human being.

Another thing that they discovered is that ravens, crows, and parrots, show their greatest intellectual capability when they are emotionally bonded to a human being." - Hugh Ross

Sure, we share a lot of DNA with the Great Apes, but our brain structures are not similar. First note is that it's a medical benefit from God that we can use Apes to advance medicine for Human life. Even using the organs in apes for transplants in Humans, that's a big advantage. Our memory chemical path in our brain is actually identical to rodents, and not Apes. We obviously didn't evolve from rodents. But God made it that way so we can advance medicine by using rodents in test labs, instead of humans.

"Smartest Bird (the intelligent raven solves the puzzle)": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYBATyILJD8

Scientific evidence that nature could not have produced the first living cell:

"In 1953 Stanley Miller performed an experiment which rocked the world! He showed that passing a spark through a chosen mixture of gasses will form amino acids, the building blocks of proteins which are the main ingredients of living cells. Given an inch, a mile was taken. We were taught that lightning strikes provided the sparks that formed the amino acids which concentrated in an “organic soup,” and linked together to form proteins. These were claimed to have gotten together with DNA to form the first living cell.

But amino acids will not link together to form proteins! It was a bit like claiming that if bricks formed in nature they would get together to build houses. Proteins are so hard to make that in all of nature, they never form except in already living cells. Never! This scientific fact stands in stark contrast to what was taught..."

http://www.creationism.org/heinze/SciEvidGodLife.htm

Ex-Illuminati member who came to Jesus exposes in great detail how the occult works, and their agenda for the New World Order.

Eye opening information that will surprise you. Highly recommend you check out these videos. Very captivating.

Video 1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X8bhVIi1fL0

2: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CiYprAOiHlA

3: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vNs_AQEyOx0

4: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WKXmKMWrLRE

5: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AMLzUwEmxv8

Whether you believe or not, this video is very interesting. Ex-Satanist who was saved by Jesus exposes the kingdom of satan. Very eye-opening information.

Deuteronomy 18:10-12

10 There shall not be found among you any one that maketh his son or his daughter to pass through the fire, or that useth divination, or an observer of times, or an enchanter, or a witch.

11 Or a charmer, or a consulter with familiar spirits, or a wizard, or a necromancer.

12 For all that do these things are an abomination unto the Lord: and because of these abominations the Lord thy God doth drive them out from before thee.

"Ex Satan Worshipper John Ramirez Testimony": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I11L71PD3Lw

"CELEBRITIES EXPOSED: Satanism in the Hollywood & Music Industry (Illuminati, Masons) (Part 1 of 2)": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=50ZedImnF0c

Why would a "holy" church have these things?

"Underneath The Vatican is Lucifer, Medusa, Isis, Pagan Gods & Idols (HD)": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Awto-pKmXbI

"And I heard another voice from heaven, saying, Come out of her, my people, that ye be not partakers of her sins, and that ye receive not of her plagues" (Revelation 18:4).

"Proof Rome Is Mystery Babylon": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZfaHzhmmUN0

God, through his grace, gave us his only begotten son, so that whosoever believes upon his word, through faith, shall not perish, but have everlasting life. Jesus says if we wish to enter into life to keep the commands! The two greatest commands are to love God with all your heart, soul, strength, and mind; and your neighbor as yourself. All the law hang on these commands. For the commandments of God are the righteous works that purify our hearts, separating us from the unrighteous; in whom shall not inherit the kingdom of God. We must be born of, and lead by the Holy Spirit, to be called children of God, to inherit the kingdom. Humble yourself in prayer to Jesus, confess and forsake your sins; keep asking for the Holy Spirit and he will give you a new heart, leading you into all truth!

Jesus came to destroy the works of the devil, to free us from sin. Hell is a place of torment created for the devil and his angels, due to disobedience to God's law. If we do the same, what makes us any different than the devil? Jesus says unless we repent, we shall perish; and go, sin no more! For sin is the transgression of the law. God has called us to be holy, just as he is holy!

All religion is man-made! This includes Islam, Jehovah's Witnesses, Mormons, ect. The Roman Catholic Church is the Great Harlot spoken of in the book of Revelation, where Jesus calls for his people to come out of! Jesus never started a religion or denomination, it is the works of man. God has called us to be holy through faith, that is it! This is not anything man can create because holiness is the character of God who is eternal, without a beginning. Jesus is not a religion; he is a personal relationship we can have with God! Start by reading the Gospel of Matthew, to hear the words of God, to know his character and commandments. Follow and obey Jesus, for he is the way, the truth, and the life!

We are heading towards perilous times. Jesus says, "For nation shall rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom: and there shall be famines, and pestilences, and earthquakes, in divers places" (Matthew 24:7). Biblical prophecy tells us that the Third Temple will be built in Jerusalem where the antichrist will take his seat, declaring himself to be God. "For then there will be great tribulation, such as has not been since the beginning of the world until this time, no, nor ever shall be" (Matthew 24:21).

"He causes all, both small and great, rich and poor, free and slave, to receive a mark in their right hand or in their foreheads, and that no one may buy or sell except one who has the mark or the name of the beast, or the number of his name. Here is wisdom. Let him who has understanding calculate the number of the beast, for it is the number of a man: His number is 666"
(Revelation 13:16-18).

Referring to the last days, this could only be speaking of a cashless society which we have yet to see, but are heading towards. Otherwise, we could still buy or sell without the mark, amongst others, if physical money was still around. RFID microchip implant technology will be the future of a one world cashless society, containing digital currency. It will be implanted in the right-hand or the forehead, and you cannot buy or sell without it! We must grow strong in Jesus. AT ALL COSTS, DO NOT TAKE IT!

"Rockefeller Reveals 9 11 FRAUD and New World Order to Aaron Russo": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FuinaIm-kd4

"Warning From Man Who Designed RFID Microchip": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nuv6IyQDjME

"Then a third angel followed them, saying with a loud voice, “If anyone worships the beast and his image, and receives his mark on his forehead or on his hand, he himself shall also drink of the wine of the wrath of God, which is poured out full strength into the cup of His indignation. He shall be tormented with fire and brimstone in the presence of the holy angels and in the presence of the Lamb. And the smoke of their torment ascends forever and ever; and they have no rest day or night, who worship the beast and his image, and whoever receives the mark of his name” (Rev. 14:9-11).

"I saw a new heaven and a new earth, for the first heaven and the first earth had passed away...“Behold, the tabernacle of God is with men, and He will dwell with them, and they shall be His people. God Himself will be with them and be their God. And God will wipe away every tear from their eyes; there shall be no more death, nor sorrow, nor crying. There shall be no more pain, for the former things have passed away" (Rev. 21:1-4). "Blessed are they that do his commandments, that they may have right to the tree of life, and may enter in through the gates into the city" (Rev. 22:14). SHARE THIS MESSAGE! READ THE GOSPELS!!!


















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Horse racing calculator - The Most Accurate One - YouTube Multiple Bet Calculator. How to calculate multiple bets ... Lucky15 Calculator with Bonus How to ALWAYS win with Football Betting ! Unique FREE ... How to use the matched betting calculator

Calculators » Super Heinz Betting Calculator. Super Heinz Betting Calculator. What is a Super Heinz Bet? A Super Heinz is 120 bets from 7 selections. The bet is made up of 1 sevenfold, 7 sixfold, 21 fivefolds, 35 fourfolds, 35 trebles and 21 doubles. You only need two of the seven selections to win to get a return. A Super Heinz thus consists of 7 selections rolled into a whopping 120 bets. To find out more about Super Heinz, check out Betting Fellow’s Super Heinz bet calculator page. How does a Heinz bet work in football? As mentioned previously, Heinz bets can work with any type of sports wager. A Heinz consists of 6 selections taking part in different events, which are combined to produce 57 bets derived from a Six-Fold Accumulator, 6 Five-Folds, 15 Four-Folds, 20 Trebles and 15 Doubles. The Heinz Bet Calculator allows you to calculate the stake, return and profit for Heinzes, permed from up to 15 selections if required, with the same ... It’s possible to use the Heinz bet on most of the betting sports you can imagine. Newbies should use a Heinz bet calculator to see how large of a stake they want to place at the outset, as well as view the potential returns. This can help with a decision about whether this type of bet is right for them. What is a Heinz Bet? A Heinz bet is named after the famous Heinz slogan of “57 Varieties” as you have 57 different bets from 6 selections. The bet is made up of 1 sixfold, 6 fivefolds, 15 fourfolds, 20 trebles and 15 doubles. Some bookmakers will offer an All Winner Bonus if all six selections win which is applied to the total return.

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Horse racing calculator - The Most Accurate One - YouTube

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